摘要：《Risk Management and Insurance Review》（RMIR）为季刊，每年4期。2024年影响因子为1.4，CiteScore为2.5，是风险管理与保险领域具有较高影响力的国际学术期刊。该刊主要发表风险管理与保险方面的应用研究、政策讨
声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系删除。
期刊介绍：
《Risk Management and Insurance Review》（RMIR）为季刊，每年4期。2024年影响因子为1.4，CiteScore为2.5，是风险管理与保险领域具有较高影响力的国际学术期刊。该刊主要发表风险管理与保险方面的应用研究、政策讨论以及数据分析类论文，设有Feature Articles、Perspectives与 Data Insights等栏目，为学术研究与实践决策提供重要参考。
本期看点：
●洪水防护缺口：为达到统一的75%洪水保险渗透率，欧盟整体保费总额至少需翻倍。目前平均每年未投保洪水损失可能达到270亿欧元。在提高保险渗透率的假设下，损失可减少最多50%。
●家庭灾害救助：2007年至2022年间，联邦应急管理署（FEMA）向遭受未投保车辆洪水损失的申请者发放了超过1.6亿美元的援助，申请者中近三分之二的年收入不超过3万美元。
●PPP模式疫情保险：通过跨期风险分担、资本积累以及将风险转移至金融市场，可以构建可行的公共—私人合作（PPP）模式的疫情保险。
●风险厌恶对保险费率刚性的影响：在信息不完全的情况下，若客户需求分布在现行费率处存在折点，风险厌恶型保险公司倾向于维持费率不变，而风险中性公司则会选择调整费率。
●损失控制：损失控制需区分为基于金钱投入型的损失控制和基于实际努力的损失控制，并考虑损失成本函数形式，其中金钱投入型损失控制水平通常不受成本形式影响，而努力型损失控制则随损失严重性增加，但在成本函数凹型情况下不一定成立。
※ 本期目录
●The impact of risk aversion on the rigidity of insurance premiums
●The flood protection gap: Evidence for public finances and insurance premiums
●Vehicle flood damage and household disaster assistance in the United States
●Building economic resilience to pandemic risk in Switzerland
●Testing for loss severity: Impact on loss reduction
The impact of risk aversion on the rigidity of insurance premiums
风险厌恶对保险费率刚性的影响
作者
Vanda Tulli（米兰比可卡大学统计与定量方法系），Gerd Weinrich（米兰大学经济、金融与精算科学数学系）
摘要：A risk averse insurance company that knows the quota of coverage demanded by a client at the status-quo premium but has imperfect information otherwise may choose not to change the premium, although an else identical risk-neutral company would do so, provided the variance of the company's subjective probability distribution over the quota demanded as a function of the premium displays a kink at the status quo. This is equivalent to risk aversion of order 1. When no such fixed premiums exist, the size of premium adjustment still decreases substantially as risk aversion increases. Moreover, in case of small premium adjustment costs, increasing risk aversion significantly diminishes the size of costs sufficient to keep the premium unchanged.
一家具有风险厌恶倾向的保险公司，如果只掌握客户在现行费率下的承保需求，而对其他情况的信息不完全，那么它可能会选择维持现行费率不变。相比之下，在相同条件下，一家风险中性的保险公司则会调整费率，前提是公司关于“客户需求随费率变化”的主观概率分布在现行费率处存在折点。这种现象等价于一阶风险厌恶。当不存在这种“固定费率”时，随着风险厌恶程度的提高，费率调整的幅度仍会显著缩小。此外，当费率调整成本较低时，更强的风险厌恶会大幅降低维持费率不变所需的成本门槛。
The flood protection gap: Evidence for public finances and insurance premiums
洪水防护缺口：对公共财政与保险费率的证据
作者
Mario Bellia（欧洲委员会联合研究中心），Erica Francesca Di Girolamo（欧洲委员会联合研究中心），Andrea Pagano（欧洲委员会联合研究中心），Marco Petracco Giudici（欧洲委员会联合研究中心）
摘要：Climate-related physical risks pose serious concerns for both public and private finances, and it is of utmost importance to contain economic losses when natural catastrophes occur. In this context, this paper models the potential economic impact of currently uninsured flood risks in the EU. It also assesses the potential reduction in economic losses obtainable by increasing the minimum level of flood insurance penetration, and the resulting increment in total premiums required to achieve this objective. First, the paper estimates the share of premiums associated with insured floods events over total property insurance premiums. Then, it investigates the extra premiums needed to close the flood protection gap by requiring all EU countries to reach a minimum level of insurance penetration. Third, the paper proposes a stylised approach to quantify economic losses associated with uninsured flood events at different levels of insurance penetration, allowing to take into account the fact that insurance protection could be partly ineffective due to defaults in the insurance sector. The model can be used to assess the size of the potential contingent loss for public finances if no preventive measures are taken to increase society's resilience against climate and weather-related risks, and compare it with a safeguard mechanism under an “average” or “worst-case” scenario. Results show that total insurance premiums collected across the EU should be at least doubled to reach a harmonised level of penetration equal to 75%. Results show that average yearly uninsured losses could amount to EUR 27 billion today. Under an alternative scenario accounting for an increase in insurance penetration, losses would decrease by up to 50%.
气候相关的物理风险对公共和私人财政都构成严重威胁，因此在自然灾害发生时控制经济损失至关重要。本文在此背景下，模拟了欧盟当前未投保洪水风险的潜在经济影响，并评估通过提高洪水保险最低覆盖水平所能减少的经济损失及实现这一目标所需的总保费增量。首先，本文估算了洪水事件相关保费在全部财产保险保费中的占比；然后，研究了通过要求所有欧盟国家达到最低保险渗透率所需的额外保费；第三，提出一种简化方法量化不同保险渗透率下未投保洪水事件造成的经济损失，同时考虑保险部门违约可能导致的保险保障部分失效情况。该模型可用于评估若不采取措施增强社会应对气候和天气相关风险的韧性，公共财政可能面临的潜在或有损失，并与“平均情景”或“最坏情景”下的保障机制进行比较。结果显示，为达到统一的75%保险渗透率，欧盟整体保费总额至少需翻倍。目前平均每年未投保洪水损失可能达到270亿欧元。在提高保险渗透率的假设下，损失可减少最多50%。
Vehicle flood damage and household disaster assistance in the United States
美国车辆洪水损失与家庭灾害救助
作者
Steven F. Koller（美国哈佛大学住房研究联合中心）
摘要：Vehicles are the most commonly-owned nonfinancial asset in the United States (US) and represent a relatively high share of net worth for low-wealth households. Despite rising flood exposure from urban development patterns and climate change impacts, few studies have considered household vulnerability to vehicle flood damages. This study conducts a first analysis of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Individuals and Households Program (IHP) Transportation Assistance (TA) data representing the full available universe of applications submitted and awards disbursed with reported vehicle flood damages during presidentially-declared flood disasters. Between 2007 and 2022, FEMA awarded more than $160 million to applicants who experienced uninsured vehicle flood damages. More than half of applicants were renter households, and nearly two-thirds reported income of $30,000 or less per year. Among recipients, the median IHP award represented approximately 33% of median annual household income. Lower-income applicants were relatively more likely to receive a FEMA IHP TA award and less likely to receive a Small Business Administration disaster loan. Flood depth at primary residence is positively associated with TA award amount, though some awardees reported no flooding at home. The study identifies insurance coverage gaps, risk-tolerant behavior, and limited financial support from Federal programs as contributors to vehicle owner financial vulnerability vis-à-vis flood hazard.
在美国，车辆是最常见的非金融资产，对于低财富家庭而言，车辆占其净资产的比例相对较高。尽管城市发展模式和气候变化增加了洪水风险，但很少有研究关注家庭对车辆洪水损失的脆弱性。本研究首次分析了联邦应急管理署（FEMA）个人与家庭计划（IHP）下的交通援助（TA）数据，涵盖在总统宣布的洪水灾害期间提交的所有申请及发放的补助情况，并记录了车辆洪水损失。2007年至2022年间，FEMA向遭受未投保车辆洪水损失的申请者发放了超过1.6亿美元的援助。申请者中超过一半为租户家庭，近三分之二的年收入不超过3万美元。在受助者中，IHP中位补助金额约占家庭年收入中位数的33%。低收入申请者相对更可能获得FEMA IHP TA援助，但较少获得小企业管理局（SBA）灾害贷款。家庭主要住所的洪水深度与TA补助金额呈正相关，但部分受助者报告其住所并未发生洪水。研究指出，保险覆盖不足、风险容忍行为以及联邦项目提供的有限财政支持，是导致车辆所有者在洪水风险面前财务脆弱的主要因素。
Building economic resilience to pandemic risk in Switzerland
在瑞士构建应对疫情风险的经济韧性
作者
Anastasia Kartasheva（瑞士圣加伦大学国际经济与应用经济研究所；圣加伦大学金融学院；瑞士金融研究院），Eleonora Pascucci（意大利米兰天主教圣心大学），Omid Ghavibazoo（加拿大多伦多全球风险研究所）
摘要：This paper examines the scope for pandemic insurance in Switzerland, addressing the residual revenue losses faced by firms despite comprehensive fiscal and monetary policies during COVID-19. While these policies provided critical support, they failed to fully mitigate revenue declines from government-imposed business interruptions. We highlight how pandemic insurance could reduce firms' exposure to revenue shocks and lessen reliance on costly interventions. Drawing insights from the Swiss Elemental Pool, a successful framework of risk-pooling for natural catastrophes, we explore its applicability to pandemic risks. Given the systemic nature of pandemics, we argue that intertemporal risk-sharing, capital accumulation, and risk transfer to financial markets can support a viable public–private partnership (PPP) for pandemic insurance. While conceptually promising, such a PPP requires further empirical evaluation of costs, benefits, and policy interactions. A well-designed framework could enhance resilience to future pandemics and reduce the economic burden of ex-post interventions.
本文探讨了瑞士疫情保险的可行性，关注在COVID-19期间，尽管政府实施了全面的财政和货币政策，企业仍面临的剩余收入损失。虽然这些政策提供了关键支持，但未能完全缓解因政府强制停业而导致的收入下降。本文指出，疫情保险可降低企业的收入冲击暴露，并减少对高成本干预措施的依赖。借鉴瑞士“Elemental Pool”——一种针对自然灾害的成功风险分摊框架，本文探讨其在疫情风险管理中的适用性。鉴于疫情的系统性特征，本文认为通过跨期风险分担、资本积累以及将风险转移至金融市场，可以构建可行的公共—私人合作（PPP）模式的疫情保险。尽管概念上具有潜力，这种PPP仍需进一步对成本、收益及政策互动进行实证评估。若框架设计合理，将有助于增强对未来疫情的韧性，并降低事后干预的经济负担。
Testing for loss severity: Impact on loss reduction
损失严重性检验：对损失控制的影响
作者
Kar Man Tan（德国法兰克福歌德大学经济与商学院）
摘要：This paper examines moral hazard in insurance when individuals are faced with different loss reduction functions and able to test for loss severity with results potentially being observed by insurers. It is important to distinguish between the types of loss reduction, that is, monetary or physical effort-based, and the functional form of loss reduction costs to account for different loss reduction strategies meant for different types of risks. With monetary loss reduction costs, individuals tend to engage in identical levels of loss reduction regardless of the functional form. With effort-based loss reduction, the individual with higher severity engages in more loss reduction although this does not necessarily hold when the functional form of loss reduction costs is concave. Identifying the optimal loss reduction has implications on insurance decisions, hence individuals can be motivated to test to discover their severity level.
本文研究了保险中的道德风险问题，重点关注当个人面临不同的损失控制函数，并能够检验自身损失严重性且结果可能被保险公司观察到时的行为差异。研究强调，需要区分损失控制的类型，即基于金钱投入的控制和基于实际努力的控制，同时考虑损失控制成本的函数形式，以反映针对不同风险类型的不同控制策略。在金钱投入型损失控制中，个体通常会维持相同水平的控制，不受成本函数形式影响。而在基于努力的损失控制中，损失严重性较高的个体会采取更多控制措施，但当成本函数为凹型时，这一规律不一定成立。识别最优损失控制水平对保险决策具有重要意义，因此个体可能会通过检验来了解自身的损失严重性水平。
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