摘要：Drew Bernstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman, Marcum Asia CPAs LLP, said in an exclusive interview with SFC journalist recently that

Harry Wu, journalist for Southern Finance Omnimedia Corp (SFC)

Drew Bernstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman, Marcum Asia CPAs LLP, said in an exclusive interview with SFC journalist recently that the prospect of reduced business regulations and lower corporate tax rates in the US has fund managers feeling their animal spirits and more willing to take bets on speculative assets, including IPOs, with the potential for high returns.

Under the background of Trump 2.0, Drew Bernstein thinks that there will continue to be an appetite among global fund managers to invest in companies from China assuming that they meet a few criteria. The advantage of listing in the US is that it remains the deepest pool of liquidity in the world with the flexibility to do multiple follow-on rounds as long as the company meets its promises to investors.

Looking into the future, Drew Bernstein continues to believe that Asia Pacific will be the largest source of new public companies in the coming decade. “China story” or “Asia growth story” aren’t over.

SFC: The IPO market in 2024 is weaker than the previous frenzy period, but it has already somewhat rebounded. How do you view the changes in the market? How far is it from normal?

Drew Bernstein: Thus far in 2025 (as of February) there have been 30 IPOs that have priced in the US raising $6.6 billion, as compared to 19 that raised $5.8 billion a year ago. More importantly, the average return of this year’s crop has been a positive 30%, versus a negative 17% return for companies that went public in the same period last year. This is a very bullish signal and we know that there are a number of billion-dollar plus companies preparing to list later this year. While LNG giant Venture Global traded down after its $1.75 billion IPO in January, Sailpoint's $1.4 billion IPO is so far in the green. As long as investors are making money in IPOs, I expect them to keep coming back to the table. In addition, we have already seen 12 SPAC IPOs raising $1.8 billion and there are several new filings every week now, indicating that SPACs are back on the menu for institutional investors.

SFC: With Trump taking office, the regulatory environment is expected to relax. Will the IPO market accelerate its recovery in 2025? Which industries are expected to benefit?

Drew Bernstein: The prospect of reduced business regulations and lower corporate tax rates has fund managers feeling their animal spirits and more willing to take bets on speculative assets, including IPOs, with the potential for high returns. The Trump Administration is clearly positive for crypto-adjacent companies and the new crypto taskforce at the SEC may create a framework for registered coin offerings going forward. While Trump is very pro traditional energy, there is a risk that new drilling drives down oil and gas prices, which could hurt industry margins. With Kennedy's appointment heading up HHS, the healthcare and processed food sectors are a real wildcard –we will see how far he gets with his MAHA(Make America Healthy Again) agenda and who the losers might be. Clearly wind is in Trump's crosshairs. Whether the tax incentives for solar, semiconductors, EVs and batteries survive will largely depend on what happens during reconciliation in Congress. There are a lot of red state jobs in play, so it is hard to handicap.

SFC: Under the shadow of inflation, the Fed has limited room for interest rate cuts this year, and interest rate may continue to be at a restrictive level. How will it affect the market? What will be the changes if interest rate remains high for a long time?

Drew Bernstein: Putting blanket tariffs on major trading partners is clearly inflationary, as is deporting large segments of the workforce in a tight labor market. Trump hasn't been able to suspend the laws of economics. Depending on how those costs filter through to consumers, the Fed may be constrained to continue its rate cutting path or even reverse course. Rising rates are almost always a negative for new issuances, M&A, and the equity market in general.

SFC: Valuations of companies in many areas are not low. Does that mean investors will be relatively cautious in the future? Is it difficult for the frenzy to reoccur?

Drew Bernstein: Valuations for early-stage companies were off the charts in 2020 and 2021 which created a disjunction for IPOs given that both companies and VCs were reluctant to do a “down-round” IPO at a big discount to the private deals. However, at this point public market and private valuations are coming into synch and the funds that invested five years ago need to create exits for their limited partners. Assuming that the markets hold up, we should see private equity and VC-driven exits continue.

SFC: The AI boom continues, with valuations of some companies soaring. Is there a bubble? If the progress of AGI is slow, will the market cool down?

Drew Bernstein: There is a lot of optimism baked into the valuations of the large tech companies that have driven most of the gains in the S&P and NASDAQ over the past two years. In 2025 we will see to what extent these massive investments in capex translate into earnings growth. That said the LLM arms race is just the first leg of the AI story. I expect that we will see a lot of companies that are disrupting specific sectors with AI applications that we haven't even thought of yet.

SFC: How will Paul Atkins, the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission selected by Trump, affect the market? Will the regulatory environment become too loose?

Drew Bernstein: Most investment bankers and SEC attorneys I speak with felt that the SEC under former Chairman Gensler had a strong anti-business and anti-innovation slant. Just in the last few months we have seen registrations statements moving through SEC review much more expeditiously. I think Atkins is viewed as a serious, experienced pick and not someone who is going to burn the house down. Of course, there is always a risk of overshooting in the direction of looser regulations, but that doesn’t appear to be a clear and present danger when it comes to securities regulation. The bigger question is if the SEC is willing to undertake a comprehensive modernization effort to streamline the process of going public. We shall see.

SFC: As the Asia Pacific plays an increasingly important role in the world, what opportunities will it bring? Will Asia Pacific market become an “opportunity center”?

Drew Bernstein: We continue to believe that Asia Pacific will be the largest source of new public companies in the coming decade. Of course there are near term headwinds. But if you ask where outside of the US do you have intense technological development, highly entrepreneurial populations, and supportive government policies, Asia Pacific is the center of the action.

I have been active in crossborder IPOs from Asia for 25 years now and it seems like every few years experts and the media are declaring that the “China story” or the “Asia growth story” is over. Yet every year our staff keeps growing, our client base keeps growing, and despite all the headwinds, we had a record year for IPOs in 2024 with the dominant market share for Asia-US IPOs of any auditor. So I tend to take the doom and gloom with a grain of salt.

SFC: Under the background of Trump 2.0, what are the challenges and opportunities for Chinese companies to list in the US? Will the challenges outweigh the opportunities or will the opportunities outweigh the challenges?

Drew Bernstein: I think that there will continue to be an appetite among global fund managers to invest in companies from China assuming that they meet a few criteria. First, that their products are truly world-class and have applications beyond China's domestic markets. Second, that they are not seen as so sensitive that the US Congress will target them as a security threat. And third, that they can get through CSRC approval on a timely basis. The advantage of listing in the US is that it remains the deepest pool of liquidity in the world with the flexibility to do multiple follow-on rounds as long as the company meets its promises to investors. China will make sure that core strategic industries continue to have access to capital sources, including the IPO market on the Chinese mainland and in Hong Kong.

来源：林氏学哥