摘要：The weather in Belém, wrote the Guardian’s environment editor, offers a convenient metaphor for the UN climate talks being held in
The Guardian view on Cop30:
someone has to pay for the end of the oil and gas age
《卫报》对COP30的看法：
石油和天然气时代的终结，总得有人付出代价
The fossil-fuel era is drawing to a close, but at a pace far too slow for the planet’s good or a fair transition to a clean energy future
化石燃料时代正在走向终结，但其速度远不足以造福地球，也无法实现向清洁能源未来的公平过渡。
Fri 14 Nov 2025 18.30 GMT
2025年11月14日星期五 18:30 GMT
The weather in Belém, wrote the Guardian’s environment editor, offers a convenient metaphor for the UN climate talks being held in the Brazilian city. Sunny mornings begin in blazing optimism before the Amazon’s clouds gather and the deluge begins. Cop30 has followed the same pattern. It opened with sunshine – an agenda agreed on day one. The storms were deferred for later “consultations” on climate finance, carbon border tariffs and the question of how to close the yawning gap between national climate pledges and the Paris agreement’s safe pathway. These await Cop30’s second week.
《卫报》环境版编辑写道，贝伦的天气恰好可以比喻正在这座巴西城市举行的联合国气候谈判。阳光灿烂的早晨，人们充满乐观，但随后亚马逊雨林的乌云密布，暴雨倾盆而下。COP30 也遵循着同样的模式。会议在阳光明媚中开幕——这是第一天就商定的议程。而风暴则被推迟到之后关于气候融资、碳边境关税以及如何弥合各国气候承诺与《巴黎协定》安全路径之间巨大差距的“磋商”中。这些问题将在 COP30 的第二周出现。
They are likely to be more than mere squalls. The International Energy Agency confirmed last week that the fossil-fuel era is ending. Its annual report said the world will hit peak coal, oil and gas this decade and see declines thereafter. The economist Fadhel Kaboub, who advises developing nations on climate, argues this is not “because of political will, but because the economics of renewables is winning”. Africa, he says, can generate about 1,000 times the electricity it will need in 2040 – which could be exported. Globally, however, hydrocarbon use is easing far too slowly. The fight over money and a just transition matters at Cop30.
这些风暴很可能不仅仅是阵雨。国际能源署上周证实，化石燃料时代即将终结。其年度报告指出，全球煤炭、石油和天然气的消耗量将在本十年内达到峰值，此后将持续下降。为发展中国家提供气候咨询的经济学家法德尔·卡布布认为，这并非“出于政治意愿”，而是因为可再生能源的经济效益正在显现。他表示，非洲到2040年可以生产出自身所需电力的1000倍左右——这些电力可以出口。然而，在全球范围内，碳氢化合物的使用量下降速度实在太慢。在联合国气候变化大会（COP30）上，资金之争和公正转型问题至关重要。
The dispute is how to keep heating to just 1.5C above preindustrial levels. The global south pushes the agreement’s article 9.1, which says that rich nations “shall provide” the funds developing countries need to go green. The rich states retreat to the text’s article 6, which highlights carbon markets. Developing countries want rich-world historic emitters to provide the cash, mainly for adaptation and ideally as grants. Wealthy ones counter that the focus should be on market opportunities to cut emissions, with newly industrialised states sharing the load and public funds blended with loans as well as private capital. This is not a technical spat. It is a fight over who pays for a managed, fair fossil-fuel phase-out.
争论的焦点在于如何将全球升温幅度控制在比工业化前水平高出1.5摄氏度以内。全球南方国家力推协议第9.1条，该条款规定富裕国家“应提供”发展中国家实现绿色转型所需的资金。富裕国家则援引协议第6条，该条款强调碳市场机制。发展中国家希望由发达国家历史上的排放国提供资金，主要用于适应气候变化，理想情况下以赠款形式提供。富裕国家则反驳说，重点应该放在利用市场机制减排上，新兴工业化国家也应分担责任，公共资金应与贷款和私人资本相结合。这并非技术上的争论，而是关乎谁来为有序、公平地逐步淘汰化石燃料买单的争论。
The sums at stake are eye-popping. Last year, developing countries argued for $1.3tn a year in climate finance – the minimum they say is needed to fund resilience and basic infrastructure. What they got was a promised $300bn by 2035, much of it loans or “mobilised” private finance. The latest data shows that a third of the cash materialised. Worse, ActionAid’s analysis of around $19bn in climate aid over a decade found that under 3% backed a “just transition” for workers and communities.
涉及的金额令人瞠目结舌。去年，发展中国家呼吁每年获得1.3万亿美元的气候融资——他们认为这是建设韧性设施和基本基础设施所需的最低金额。然而，他们最终得到的却是到2035年承诺的3000亿美元，其中大部分是贷款或“调动”的私人资金。最新数据显示，只有三分之一的资金真正到位。更糟糕的是，国际援助组织ActionAid对过去十年约190亿美元的气候援助进行分析后发现，只有不到3%的资金用于支持工人和社区的“公正转型”。
Clouds will gather over Belém. The test will be whether this year’s UN summit can improve on the last. The absence of Donald Trump – or anyone from his administration – may actually help. At the negotiations, the developing nations’ G77 group plus China have pushed a “just transition mechanism” to formalise climate cooperation, transfer green tech and channel support into debt-free finance. They are backed by Brazil, South Africa and India. Developed nations argue that this risks a delay in reaching climate goals.
贝伦上空将乌云密布。今年的联合国气候峰会能否比上届有所改进，将是一大考验。唐纳德·特朗普——或者说他的任何一位政府官员——的缺席，或许反而会有所帮助。在谈判中，发展中国家集团77国加上中国力推“公正转型机制”，旨在正式确立气候合作，推广绿色技术，并将支持转化为无债务融资。巴西、南非和印度也支持这一机制。发达国家则认为，这可能会导致实现气候目标的进程延缓。
The Earth is headed for 2.6C of heating this century – producing a dangerously unstable world, but an improvement on the 3.6C trajectory of a decade ago. Richer nations spend billions on holders of their government bonds, but cry poverty when it comes to coughing up for the climate emergency they largely created. Cop30 will either see the global north accept that it can – and must – pay its fair share, or watch wealthy nations keep wringing their hands as the planet burns.
本世纪地球升温幅度将达到2.6摄氏度——这将导致世界极度不稳定，但比十年前3.6摄氏度的升温趋势有所改善。富裕国家花费数十亿美元购买其政府债券，却在应对他们一手造成的气候危机时哭穷。COP30会议要么会让全球北方国家承认自己能够——而且必须——承担其应尽的份额，要么会让富裕国家眼睁睁地看着地球燃烧而袖手旁观。
来源：小镇评论家
