摘要：在凯恩斯的经济理论中，有一个“节俭的悖论”，就是节俭导致需求不足，需求不足最终导致经济发展减速，经济发展减速又导致贫穷，最终是节俭的手段与节俭的目的相悖，这就是所谓的“悖论”。但从长远和全局看，所谓“节俭的悖论”实际是不存在的，注重节俭才符合真正的经济学原理。
“节俭的悖论”本质是不存在的
宋 圭 武
在凯恩斯的经济理论中，有一个“节俭的悖论”，就是节俭导致需求不足，需求不足最终导致经济发展减速，经济发展减速又导致贫穷，最终是节俭的手段与节俭的目的相悖，这就是所谓的“悖论”。但从长远和全局看，所谓“节俭的悖论”实际是不存在的，注重节俭才符合真正的经济学原理。
其一，节俭对一个人或家庭而言，只是导致一个人的支出出现在不同的时间段而已，而并不是不支出，所以，由节俭导致的一个人的需求并不是减少，而是需求在不同时间段的重新配置。一个人有了储蓄，最终都是要花出去的，不可能一直留着不消费，节俭就是一个人在某一个时间段内消费量的减少。若一个人在有生之年没有消费完自己的储蓄，自己的后代最终也会消费这部分储蓄的。所以，所谓“节俭的悖论”，只具有静态的意义，但现实不是静态的，而是沿时间动态展开的。
其二，节俭有利于家庭稳定。一个家庭选择节俭，有利于家庭在日后的生活和工作中不慌不忙。不注重节俭，既破坏了家庭美德，也破坏了家庭经济。因为浪费容易导致家庭经济拮据，也就容易导致家庭矛盾。从实际情况看，大凡注重节俭的家庭，大都生活显得比较平稳。有了家庭稳定，也就有了社会稳定的基础。在这种情况下，就是有失业等情况发生，家庭也是一个好的缓冲器。因为若一个人冒险冲撞社会，家庭就是一个阻拦。而贫寒的家庭对个人冲撞社会的阻力就小，因为涉及的家庭损失成本小，阻力也就小了。
其三，节俭有利于环境的保护。目前，我们保护环境，一个方面是注重技术的改进，就是要提倡更环保的技术，提高投入产出效率，提倡清洁生产，发展循环经济；一个方面是要减少生产量，降低发展速度；一个方面是要提倡节俭生活。而提倡节俭的生活，就是其中一个很重要的方面。因为来自生活方面的垃圾对环境污染也是十分严重的。
其四，节俭有利于经济发展的长期稳定。过度刺激需求容易导致信用扩张和货币扩张。而过度扩张的信用和货币在短期内虽可能造成经济一定程度的局部繁荣，但由于缺乏持久的实体经济的支撑，经济最后必然会出现问题，这时政府为了继续保持经济繁荣，就又需要不断进行信用和货币的扩展，这最终导致经济泡沫化，最后就是泡沫破裂。所以，浪费型的刺激需求，就像为经济系统注入毒品，虽然能带来短期的兴奋，但最终会导致经济系统产生依赖性，需要不断的注入毒品，并且很可能导致需要一次比一次更大的信用和货币的扩张。如果说以前的经济危机与自由主义密切相关，那么，近些年发生在美国的次贷危机以及目前欧洲的债务危机等，就与凯恩斯主义的需求和信用扩张思路是脱不了干系的。所以，解决经济不稳定，需要我们既要摆脱自由主义的思路，也要摆脱凯恩斯主义的思路。
其五，节俭有利于提高投资效率。在居民普遍节俭的情况下，需求就是有限的，企业家投资就需要谨慎，不能盲目，这有利于选择最有效的投资项目。同时，由于储蓄充足，银行资金宽裕，就是有些企业投资失败，也容易得到银行再融资，旧的项目也容易得到改造和淘汰。
其六，节俭有利于社会道德建设。人的需求包括两个方面：物质的方面和精神的方面。人在物质方面需求减少了，必然会更多关注精神方面的需求。另外，培养节俭的人格，有利于养成自律的好习惯。而自律的人格，就是容易守规矩的，就是不容易犯法的。自律是社会和谐的重要基础。一个人若没有自律意识，社会就很难管理，社会就更多具有了本能特性。
所以，凯恩斯的所谓的“节俭的悖论”，只是一个理论上的局部逻辑推演。凯恩斯只看到了经济效果，而没有看到环境和社会的效果，只看到了短期效果，而没有看到长期效果，或是只看到了局部效果，而没有看到全局效果。所以，在现实中，我们应坚决提倡节俭。
提倡节俭，需要多方面的共同努力。第一，政府要带头节俭，要减少公务消费，要将节俭作为干部考核的一个重要方面。要采取有效措施减少三公消费。提倡骑自行车上下班，提倡盒饭和工作餐。要对政府消费通过硬指标进行限制。第二，银行要惜贷，不轻易进行信用扩张。同时，银行要实行存贷两方面的低利率，这有利于限制银行自身的消费。第三，货币发行量要与经济发展速度或实际经济发展配套，不能过多发行货币。也就是在货币管理方面，我们要更多坚持货币主义的思路。第四，要提倡家庭节俭，限制家庭高消费。对高收入家庭可适当容许高消费，但对低收入家庭，要限制高消费。对炫耀性消费要征收重税。第五，政府不能盲目刺激需求，要更多关注公平问题。政府的主要任务应是制度的公平性建设和执行，而不是直接发展经济。要大力提高劳动者报酬在国民收入中所占比重，这里要更多提高一般工人的工资水平，要限制管理者的高薪。第六，要大力发展实体经济。这里尤其要大力发展农业，要让更多的人从事农业。要严格限制圈地。要搞好农产品的流通。不能一面是农产品积压，一面是食品价格上涨。第七，要限制股票市场发展的规模的速度。要引领股票市场更多体现融资功能，而不是投机功能。第八，各国要建立相对独立的经济体系，不能过度依赖国际市场，要减少国际贸易量。第九，要加大对价格的控制力度。第十，要更加注重环保技术和资源节约型技术的开发。第十一，要大力发展资源节约型产业，如体育、教育、医疗等。要减少汽车等产业的发展规模和速度。在中国，由于人口众多和土地资源有限，尤其要限制汽车产业的发展。第十二，建设休闲社会，提倡休闲文明，提倡适度竞争，反对过度竞争。
（作者：兰州城市学院特聘教授，原中共甘肃省委党校二级教授）
The essence of the "paradox of thrift" does not exist
Song Guiwu
In Keynes' economic theory, there is a "paradox of frugality", which is that frugality leads to insufficient demand, insufficient demand eventually causes economic growth to slow down, and economic growth to slow down leads to poverty. Ultimately, the means of frugality are contrary to the purpose of frugality, and this is what is called a "paradox". However, from a long-term and overall perspective, the so-called "paradox of frugality" actually does not exist. Emphasizing frugality is in line with the true principles of economics.
Firstly, for an individual or a family, frugality merely leads to their expenditures occurring at different times, rather than no spending at all. Therefore, the demands of an individual caused by frugality do not decrease, but rather are reconfigured at different times. When a person has savings, they will eventually have to spend them. It's impossible to keep them for a long time without spending. Thrift means a reduction in one's consumption within a certain period of time. If a person fails to spend all his savings during his lifetime, his descendants will eventually consume this part of their savings as well. So, the so-called "paradox of frugality" only has a static meaning, but reality is not static; rather, it unfolds dynamically along time.
Secondly, frugality is conducive to family stability. When a family chooses frugality, it is beneficial for the family to remain calm and composed in their future life and work. Not paying attention to frugality not only undermines family virtues but also damages the family's economy. Because waste can easily lead to financial hardship for the family, it is also likely to cause family conflicts. In reality, most families that pay attention to frugality tend to have a relatively stable life. With a stable family, there is a foundation for social stability. In this case, even if unemployment or other situations occur, the family can also serve as a good buffer. Because if a person risks running into society, the family will be an obstacle. Poor families have less resistance to individuals colliding with society because the cost of family losses involved is small, and thus the resistance is also smaller.
Thirdly, frugality is conducive to environmental protection. At present, when we protect the environment, one aspect is to focus on technological improvement, that is, to advocate more environmentally friendly technologies, enhance input-output efficiency, promote clean production and develop a circular economy. One aspect is to reduce production and slow down the development speed. One aspect is to advocate a thrifty lifestyle. And advocating a thrifty lifestyle is one of the very important aspects. Because garbage from daily life also causes very serious pollution to the environment.
Fourth, frugality is conducive to the long-term stability of economic development. Excessive stimulation of demand can easily lead to credit expansion and monetary expansion. Although excessive expansion of credit and currency may cause a certain degree of local economic prosperity in the short term, due to the lack of sustained support from the real economy, problems will inevitably arise in the economy eventually. At this point, in order to maintain economic prosperity, the government needs to continuously expand credit and currency, which will eventually lead to economic bubble formation and burst. Therefore, wasteful stimulus demand is like injecting drugs into the economic system. Although it can bring short-term excitement, it will eventually lead to the economic system becoming dependent, requiring continuous injection of drugs, and is very likely to result in the need for larger credit and monetary expansions each time. If the previous economic crises were closely related to liberalism, then the subprime mortgage crisis that occurred in the United States in recent years and the current debt crisis in Europe, etc., are inseparable from the demand and credit expansion ideas of Keynesianism. Therefore, to address economic instability, we need to break away from both liberal thinking and Keynesian thinking.
Fifth, frugality is conducive to improving investment efficiency. When residents are generally thrifty, demand is limited. Entrepreneurs need to be cautious when investing and not act blindly. This is conducive to choosing the most effective investment projects. Meanwhile, due to abundant savings and ample bank funds, even if some enterprises fail in their investments, they can easily obtain refinancing from banks, and old projects are also more likely to be renovated and phased out.
Sixth, frugality is conducive to the construction of social morality. Human needs encompass two aspects: the material aspect and the spiritual aspect. When people's material demands decrease, they will inevitably pay more attention to their spiritual needs. In addition, cultivating a thrifty personality is conducive to developing the good habit of self-discipline. A self-disciplined personality is one who is easy to follow the rules and less likely to break the law. Self-discipline is an important foundation for social harmony. If a person lacks self-discipline, it will be very difficult for society to manage, and society will have more instinctive characteristics.
Therefore, Keynes' so-called "paradox of frugality" is merely a theoretical partial logical deduction. Keynes only saw economic effects but failed to notice environmental and social ones, only short-term effects but not long-term ones, or only local effects but not overall ones. Therefore, in reality, we should firmly advocate frugality.
Advocating frugality requires the joint efforts of all aspects. First, the government should take the lead in frugality, reduce official spending, and incorporate frugality as an important aspect in the assessment of officials. Effective measures should be taken to reduce public expenses. It is advocated to commute by bike and to have boxed meals and work meals. Government consumption should be restricted through hard targets. Second, banks should be reluctant to lend and refrain from credit expansion easily. At the same time, banks should implement low interest rates on both deposits and loans, which is conducive to restricting their own consumption. Third, the amount of money issued should be in line with the speed of economic development or the actual economic growth, and excessive money should not be issued. That is to say, in terms of monetary management, we should adhere more to the monetarist approach. Fourth, we should advocate frugality within families and restrict high household consumption. For high-income families, high consumption can be appropriately allowed, but for low-income families, high consumption should be restricted. Heavy taxes should be imposed on conspicuous consumption. Fifth, the government should not blindly stimulate demand but pay more attention to issues of fairness. The main task of the government should be to build and implement the fairness of the system rather than directly develop the economy. We should significantly increase the proportion of labor remuneration in national income. Here, we need to raise the wages of ordinary workers more and limit the high salaries of managers. Sixth, we should vigorously develop the real economy. Here, in particular, we should vigorously develop agriculture and encourage more people to engage in it. The enclosure of land should be strictly restricted. We should ensure the smooth circulation of agricultural products. It cannot be the case that on one hand there is a backlog of agricultural products, while on the other hand food prices are rising. Seventh, the scale and speed of the stock market's development should be restricted. It is necessary to lead the stock market to reflect more of its financing function rather than its speculative function. Eighth, all countries should establish relatively independent economic systems, not overly rely on the international market, and reduce the volume of international trade. Ninth, efforts should be intensified to control prices. Tenth, more attention should be paid to the development of environmental protection technologies and resource-conserving technologies. Eleventh, we should vigorously develop resource-conserving industries, such as sports, education and healthcare. The development scale and speed of industries such as automobiles should be reduced. In China, due to its large population and limited land resources, the development of the automotive industry is particularly restricted. Twelfth, build a leisure society, advocate leisure civilization, promote moderate competition and oppose excessive competition.
(Author: Distinguished Professor of Lanzhou City University, former Second-level Professor of the Gansu Provincial Party School of the Communist Party of China)
来源：宋圭武
