摘要：根据美国国会当前的立法进展和联邦政府的财政周期，如果国会未能在 2025 年 9 月 30 日午夜前通过新的拨款法案或临时拨款法案，美国政府将在 10 月 1 日零时正式进入停摆状态。

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共和党在参众两院均占微弱多数的美国第119届国会

一、共和和民主两党在政府拨款方面的博弈又陷僵局

根据美国国会当前的立法进展和联邦政府的财政周期，如果国会未能在 2025 年 9 月 30 日午夜前通过新的拨款法案或临时拨款法案，美国政府将在 10 月 1 日零时正式进入停摆状态。

美国联邦政府的财政年度从每年 10 月 1 日开始，至次年 9 月 30 日结束。2025 财年将于 9 月 30 日午夜结束，若届时国会未通过任何形式的拨款法案（包括长期预算案或短期延续决议），联邦政府将因资金耗尽而无法维持非核心部门的运作。

9月 19 日，共和党控制的众议院以 217对212 勉强通过一项临时拨款法案，计划将政府资金维持至 11 月 21 日，并增加 8800 万美元用于政要安保。但该法案在参议院以 44对48 未达 60 票的通过门槛而遭到否决。

民主党参议院党团随后提出临时拨款法案，半政府资金维持至 10 月 31 日，并包含 3500 亿美元医保补贴延期条款，虽然支持票为 47对45，但同样未达到参议院通过拨款法案所需的三分之二多数未能通过。

白宫预算办公室主任罗素・沃特

据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）2025年9月24日报道，在此情况下，白宫预算办公室正要求联邦机构制定计划，若政府停摆则实施大规模解雇，并指示将目标对准那些并非法律要求必须继续开展的项目。

这份由白宫管理和预算办公室发给各政府机构的备忘录，与政府以往应对停摆的处理方式截然不同，也是特朗普政府在与国会民主党人就联邦政府拨款问题陷入僵局之际采取的升级行动。

在备忘录中，管理和预算办公室要求各政府机构找出两类项目：一是若国会未能在9月30日的拨款截止日前采取行动，其资金将失效的项目；二是没有其他替代资金来源的项目。这些项目将成为联邦政府大规模裁员的目标，那些被视为“与唐纳德·特朗普总统优先事项不符”的岗位可能被永久取消。

管理和预算办公室在备忘录中写道：“我们仍希望国会中的民主党人不会引发停摆，上述措施也许无需实施。”

参议院少数党领袖民主党参议员查克·舒默称这份备忘录是“企图进行恐吓”。 他在9月24日晚间的一份声明中表示：““唐纳德·特朗普从执政第一天起就一直在解雇联邦雇员：不是为了施政，而是为了制造恐慌。这并非新鲜事，且与为政府提供资金毫无关系。这些不必要的解雇要么会在法庭上被推翻，要么政府最终会重新雇佣这些员工，就像他们最近（甚至今天）所做的那样。”

未来一周，白宫威胁大规模解雇政府雇员的威胁可能会进一步加剧两党在拨款问题上的摊牌。民主党人已提出一系列妥协要求，作为同意将政府运营维持至11月的交换条件。最值得注意的是，民主党人坚持要求延长《平价医疗法案》）保险的联邦额外补贴，因为该补贴将于年底失效。

白宫和国会共和党人迄今拒绝了这些要求，坚持要求不附加任何条件的拨款延期。本周早些时候，特朗普取消了与民主党领导人就政府拨款僵局举行会议的计划，并全盘拒绝了他们的诉求。

9月24日发布的白宫管理和预算办公室备忘录重申了这一立场，称民主党的立场“荒谬”，并指出若政府停摆，将继续为“特朗普政府的核心优先事项”提供资金。该办公室补充称，除非民主党人接受政府的立场并通过一项纯粹的拨款延期法案，否则将继续推进政府非特朗普优先领域的大规模解雇计划。

参议院民主党领袖查理·舒默等民主党人称特朗普的威胁是勒索和自残

三、民主党称特朗普的威胁是勒索和对国家的自残

白宫的这份备忘录是特朗普政府为改革并缩减联邦雇员规模所做的最新努力，或许也是影响最深远的一次。今年2月，特朗普签署一项行政命令，要求各机构制定大规模裁员计划。最终结果喜忧参半：部分机构解雇了大量员工，部分机构至少撤回了部分裁员决定，还有一些机构则要求部分已离职的员工重返岗位。

另一个不同寻常的举动是，尽管若国会不采取行动，联邦政府开支将在不到一周后失效，但管理和预算办公室尚未在其网站上公布各机构的停摆应急预案。该办公室在备忘录中写道，迄今为止已收到“许多（但并非所有）”机构更新后的拨款失效应对计划。这些计划详细列出了停摆期间被视为必要的职能和雇员，即便陷入僵局，这些职能仍将继续履行，相关雇员仍需在岗，尽管其中许多人要等到国会同意拨款后才能拿到薪酬。

每次政府停摆的情况都有所不同，但核心服务包括社会保障金发放、执法、空中交通管制和边境巡逻都会持续不间断提供。以往的停摆曾导致国家公园和博物馆关闭、食品检查停滞、移民听证会取消、联邦向购房者和小企业提供的部分贷款延迟等一系列影响。

两党政策中心经济政策执行董事雷切尔·斯奈德曼表示，今年3月曾是最近一次联邦政府停摆危机迫近但最终得以避免的时刻，当时有超过140万名雇员被列为必要岗位人员，其中约75万人本可继续获得薪酬，因为他们的工资由其他资金来源保障。另有近90万名员工本将进入无薪休假状态。

民主党谴责特朗普政府试图利用政府停摆来掏空联邦雇员队伍的想法。拜登政府时期的前管理和预算办公室官员、美国进步中心联邦预算政策高级主任鲍比·科根表示：“暂且不论合法性问题，这将是对国家造成巨大自残的行为，毫无必要地让国家流失人才和专业技能。这还带有勒索性质：‘在拨款之争中给我们想要的，否则我们就伤害这个国家。’”

White House budget office threatens mass firings if government shuts down. By Adam Cancryn, Tami Luhby on CNN. September 24, 2025.

The White House budget office is telling federal agencies to prepare plans for mass firings in the event of a government shutdown, with instructions to target programs they are not legally required to continue.

The directive, outlined in an Office of Management and Budget memo to agencies and obtained by CNN, represents a sharp break from the government’s handling of past shutdown scenarios — and an escalation by the Trump administration amid a standoff with congressional Democrats over federal funding.

In the memo, OMB directs agencies to identify programs whose funds will lapse if Congress fails to meet the September 30 funding deadline and that have no alternative source of funding. Those programs should then be targeted for sweeping reductions in force that could permanently eliminate jobs that are deemed “not consistent” with President Donald Trump’s priorities.

“We remain hopeful that Democrats in Congress will not trigger a shutdown and the steps outlined above will not be necessary,” OMB wrote in the memo.

An OMB spokesperson declined to comment. Politico first reported the details of the memo.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the memo “an attempt at intimidation.”

“Donald Trump has been firing federal workers since day one—not to govern, but to scare,” Schumer said in a statement Wednesday evening. “This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the government. These unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back, just like they did as recently as today.”

The threat of mass job losses across the government is likely to further intensify the partisan funding showdown over the next week, where Democrats have demanded a series of concessions in exchange for keeping the government open into November. Most notably, Democrats are insisting on an extension of the enhanced federal subsidies for Affordable Care Act coverage, which are set to lapse at year’s end.

The White House and congressional Republicans have so far refused, insisting on a so-called “clean” extension. Trump earlier this week canceled a planned meeting with Democratic leaders to discuss the funding impasse, issuing a blanket rejection of their demands.

The OMB memo on Wednesday doubled down on that stance, calling Democrats’ position “insane” and noting that it would continue to fund “core Trump Administration priorities” in the event of a shutdown.

The planning for mass firings in other areas of government, the office added, would proceed unless Democrats take up the administration’s position and pass a clean funding extension.

Gutting the federal workforce

The memo is the latest – and perhaps furthest reaching – effort by the Trump administration to overhaul and shrink the size of the federal workforce. In February, Trump signed an executive order directing agencies to draw up plans for a large-scale reduction in force. The results were mixed, with some agencies letting go sizeable portions of their staffs, others walking back at least part of their layoffs and still others asking some employees who departed to return to their jobs. .

The current effort was foreshadowed in another memo that OMB and the Office of Personnel Management sent to agencies in late February concerning the executive order. The memo directed department leaders to identify by March 13 “all agency components and employees performing functions not mandated by statute or regulation who are not typically designated as essential during a lapse in appropriations.”

In another unusual move, OMB has yet to post agencies’ shutdown contingency plans on its website, even though the federal government’s funding will lapse in less than a week unless Congress acts. In its memo, OMB wrote that it had received updated lapse plans from “many, but not all” agencies to date. The plans detail which functions and employees are deemed essential during a shutdown and will continue despite the impasse. Those workers remain on the job, though many are not paid until Congress agrees to appropriate funding.

Every government shutdown is different, but key services – including Social Security payments, law enforcement, air traffic control and border patrol – continue uninterrupted. Previous shutdowns have closed national parks and museums; stalled food inspections; canceled immigration hearings; and delayed some federal lending to homebuyers and small businesses, among other impacts.

In March, the last time a federal government shutdown loomed before being averted, more than 1.4 million employees were deemed essential and would have had to report to work, according to Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. About 750,000 of them would have continued to be paid since their salaries were funded through other sources.

Another nearly 900,000 workers would have been furloughed without pay. (Snyderman noted that the estimates did not include the layoffs and departures that occurred in the early weeks of the Trump administration.)

A spokesperson for the National Treasury Employees Union, the second largest federal workers’ union, said it has no knowledge of the memo, while the American Federation of Government Employees did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Left-leaning advocates decried the idea of using a shutdown to gut the federal workforce.

“Setting aside the question of legality, this would be an action of enormous self-harm inflicted on the nation, needlessly ridding the country of talent and expertise,” said Bobby Kogan, a former OMB official in the Biden administration and senior director of federal budget policy for the Center for American Progress. “It’s also extortive. ‘Give us what we want in a funding fight, or we’ll hurt the country.’”

来源：读行品世事一点号