顶刊学术前沿快报 | 第4期

摘要：为了更好地服务我校师生科研创新，图书馆推出“顶刊学术前沿快报”。该栏目依据我校最新《优秀学术期刊目录》，推出国际顶级、中文学术期刊A类最新论文，助力师生了解学术前沿的研究成果，以期为我校师生在科研创新、前沿领域探索中提供借鉴与参考。

编者按：为了更好地服务我校师生科研创新，图书馆推出“顶刊学术前沿快报”。该栏目依据我校最新《优秀学术期刊目录》，推出国际顶级、中文学术期刊A类最新论文，助力师生了解学术前沿的研究成果，以期为我校师生在科研创新、前沿领域探索中提供借鉴与参考。

优秀学术期刊目录经济学国际顶刊包括：American Economic Review、Econometrica、Journal of Political Economy、Quarterly Journal of Economics、Review of Economic Studies，按照刊物出版时间，本期为大家推送American Economic Review、Journal of Political Economy、Review of Economic Studies三本顶刊收录的最新论文。

《美国经济评论》

《美国经济评论》（American Economic Review, AER）由美国经济学学会（American Economic Association, AEA）于1911年创立。该刊在经济学领域被视为最具有学术声望的期刊之一。《美国经济评论》的创立宗旨是使读者了解并掌握经济思想与重大经济事件的发生、发展与演变；发表论文的内容涉及经济学基础理论、应用经济学和经济政策评估等的诸多领域。《美国经济评论》上的论文及讨论议题具有“风向标”意义，一定程度上引领了经济学领域现阶段及未来数年的研究方向。本期为大家推送2025年第9期（Vol. 115, No. 9, September 2025）。

1.Micro versus Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort

——Henrik Kleven, Claus Kreiner, Kristian Larsen, and Jakob Søgaard

摘要：We investigate long-run earnings responses to taxes in the presence of dynamic returns to effort. First, we develop a theoretical model of earnings determination with dynamic returns to effort. In this model, earnings responses are delayed and mediated by job switches. Second, using administrative data from Denmark, we verify our model's predictions about earnings and hours-worked patterns over the life cycle. Third, we provide a quasi-experimental analysis of long-run earnings elasticities. Informed by our model, the empirical strategy exploits variation among job switchers. We find that the long-run elasticity is around 0.5, considerably larger than the short-run elasticity of roughly 0.2.

2.Moonshot: Public R&D and Growth

——Shawn Kantor and Alexander Whalley

摘要：We estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on growth in manufacturing by analyzing new data from the Cold War-era space race. We develop a novel empirical strategy that leverages US-Soviet rivalry in space technology to isolate windfall R&D spending. Our results demonstrate that public R&D conducted by NASA contractors increased manufacturing value added, employment, and capital accumulation in space-related sectors. While migration responses were important, they were not sufficient to generate a wedge between local and national effects. The iconic moonshot R&D program had only modest economic effects for both the local and national space-related sectors.

3.Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry

——Kory Kroft, Yao Luo, Magne Mogstad,

and Bradley Setzler

摘要：We develop, identify, and estimate a model of imperfect competition in both labor and product markets. Our context is the US construction industry, where firms compete for workers, private market projects, and government procurements. Our empirical approach leverages bidding data from procurement auctions linked to employer-employee tax records. We find imperfect competition in both markets generates a total wage markdown of more than 30 percent and a total price markup of around 45 percent. By contrast, if one erroneously assumed a perfectly competitive product (labor) market, then one would conclude wages (prices) are marked down (up) by only 20 percent (16 percent).

4.Nested Bundling

——Frank Yang

摘要：A nested bundling strategy creates menus in which more expensive bundles include all the goods of less expensive ones. We study when nested bundling is optimal and determine which nested menu is optimal, when consumers differ in one dimension. We define a partial order on bundles by (i) set inclusion and (ii) sales quantity when sold alone. We show that, under quasi-concavity assumptions, if the undominated bundles with respect to this partial order are nested, then nested bundling is optimal. We present an iterative algorithm that identifies the minimal optimal menu consisting of a subset of the undominated bundles.

5.Labor Market Power, Self-Employment, and Development

——Francesco Amodio, Pamela Medina,

and Monica Morlacco

摘要：This paper shows that self-employment shapes labor market power in low-income countries, with implications for industrial development. Using Peruvian data, we find that wage-setting power increases with employer concentration but less so where self-employment is more prevalent. A general equilibrium model shows that in oligopsonistic labor markets, self-employment raises the supply elasticity of wage labor, weakening employer market power. However, by the same mechanism, procompetitive policies aimed at expanding wage employment and reducing reliance on self-employment may unintentionally strengthen labor market power, undermining their objectives.

6.Is Air Pollution Regulation Too Lenient? Evidence from US Offset Markets

——Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker

摘要：We develop a framework to estimate the marginal cost of air pollution regulation and apply it to assess policy efficiency. We exploit a provision of the Clean Air Act that requires new plants to pay incumbent facilities to reduce emissions. This "offset" policy creates hundreds of local pollution markets, differing by pollutant and location. Theory and transaction data suggest that offset prices reveal marginal abatement costs. We compare these prices to marginal benefits of pollution reduction estimated using leading air quality models and find that, on average, marginal benefits exceed marginal costs by more than a factor of ten.

7.The Long-Term Effects of Income for At-Risk Infants: Evidence from Supplemental Security Income

——Amelia Hawkins, Christopher Hollrah, Sarah Miller, Laura R.

Wherry, Gloria Aldana, and Mitchell Wong

摘要：The Supplemental Security Income program uses a birth weight cutoff at 1,200 grams to determine eligibility. Using birth certificates linked to administrative records, we find low-income families of infants born just below the cutoff receive higher monthly cash benefits (equal to 27 percent of family income) at ages 0–2 with smaller benefits continuing through age 10. Yet we detect no improvements in health care use and mortality in infancy, nor in health and human capital outcomes as observed through young adulthood for these infants. We also find no improvements for their older siblings.

8.Test-Optional Admissions

——Wouter Dessein, Alex Frankel,

and Navin Kartik

摘要：Many US colleges now use test-optional admissions. A frequent claim is that by not seeing standardized test scores, a college can admit a student body it prefers, say, with more diversity. But how can observing less information improve decisions? This paper proposes that test-optional policies are a response to social pressure on admission decisions. We model a college that bears disutility when it makes admission decisions that "society" dislikes. Going test optional allows the college to reduce its "disagreement cost." We analyze how missing scores are imputed and the consequences for the college, students, and society.

9.Market-Wide Predictable Price Pressure

——Samuel M. Hartzmark and David H. Solomon

摘要：We demonstrate that predictable uninformed cash flows forecast aggregate market stock returns. Buying pressure from dividend payments (announced weeks prior) predicts higher value-weighted market returns, with returns for the top quintile of payment days four times higher than the lowest. This holds internationally and increases when reinvestment is high and market liquidity is low. We estimate a market-level price multiplier of 1.9. These results suggest price pressure is a widespread result of flows, not an anomaly.

10.A Model of Populism as a Conspiracy Theory

——Adam Szeidl and Ferenc Szucs

摘要：We model populism as the dissemination of a false "alternative reality," according to which the intellectual elite conspires against the populist for purely ideological reasons. If enough voters are receptive to it, this alternative reality—by discrediting the elite's truthful message—reduces political accountability. Elite criticism, because it is more consistent with the alternative reality, strengthens receptive voters' support for the populist. Alternative realities are endogenously conspiratorial to resist evidence better. Populists, to leverage or strengthen beliefs in the alternative reality, enact harmful policies that may disproportionately harm the non-elite. These results explain previously unexplained facts about populism.

11.Drivers of Change: Employment Responses to the Lifting of the Saudi Female Driving Ban

——Chaza Abou Daher, Erica Field,

Kendal Swanson, and Kate Vyborny

摘要：We conduct a field experiment to quantify the impact of the lifting of the Saudi women's driving ban on women's employment by randomizing rationed spaces in driver's training. Treated women are 41 percent more likely to be employed yet are 19 percent less likely to be able to make purchases without family permission. Patterns of heterogeneous treatment effects reveal that these divergent impacts of access to driving are experienced by distinct subgroups of women. The results underscore the importance of intrahousehold responses that can counteract legal gains in women's freedoms.

《政治经济学杂志》

《政治经济学杂志》（Journal of Political Economy）作为经济学领域历史最悠久、最负盛名的期刊之一，《政治经济学杂志》介绍经济理论和实践中重要的基本学术成果。该期刊在货币理论、财政政策、劳动经济学、发展、微观经济和宏观经济理论、国际贸易和金融、产业组织以及社会经济学等多个领域发表高度精选且被广泛引用的分析、解释和实证研究。本期为大家推送2025年第9期（Volume 133, Number 9, September 2025）。

1.Of Cities and Slums

——Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira,Alexander Monge-Naranjo, andLuciene Torres de Mello Pereira

摘要：We study the emergence and persistence of urban slums in Brazil. Using data on labor markets, housing costs, and access to education, we construct a quantitative model to explore the impact of slums on the country’s human capital and structural transformation. Urban slums emerge and persist due to their dual roles as intergenerational stepping stones for low-educated households and as blockades for higher-educated ones. Providing slum children access to schools in formal urban areas would have led to larger but shorter-lived slums. Improved rural schools, if available earlier during urbanization, would have vastly prevented the formation of urban slums.

2.The Labor Market Effects of Legal Restrictions on Worker Mobility

——Matthew S. Johnson, Kurt Lavetti,

and Michael Lipsitz

摘要：We analyze how the legal enforceability of noncompete agreements (NCAs) affects labor markets. Using newly constructed panel data, we find that higher NCA enforceability diminishes workers’ earnings and job mobility, with larger effects among workers most likely to sign NCAs. These effects are far-reaching: increasing enforceability imposes externalities on workers across state borders, suggesting broad effects on labor market dynamism. We show that enforceability affects wages by reducing outside options and preventing workers from leveraging tight labor markets to increase earnings. We motivate these findings with a model of search and bargaining. Finally, higher NCA enforceability exacerbates gender and racial earnings gaps.

3.Risk and Information in Dispute Resolution: An Empirical Study of Arbitration

——Yunmi Kong, Bernardo S. Silveira,

and Xun Tang

摘要：We develop and estimate a structural model of arbitration, accounting for asymmetric risk attitudes and learning. Using data on public sector wage disputes in New Jersey, we compare the efficiency of two popular arbitration formats: final offer and conventional. We find that although conventional arbitration hinders the transmission of case-relevant information from the disputants to the arbitrator, this format outperforms final offer arbitration by affording discretion to select awards. We also assess how risk attitude differences between the disputants affect imbalances in arbitration outcomes, finding that risk aversion weakens a party’s position in the dispute despite making them more likely to win arbitration.

4.Micro and Macro Effects of Unemployment Insurance Policies: Evidence from Missouri

——Fatih Karahan, Kurt Mitman,

and Brendan Moore

摘要：We develop a method to jointly measure the response of worker search effort (micro effect) and vacancy creation (macro effect) to changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. To implement this approach, we exploit an unexpected cut in UI durations in Missouri and provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of UI on the labor market. In our baseline specification, the data indicate that the cut in Missouri increased job-finding rates by 12% by raising firm vacancy creation and the search effort of unemployed workers. Both channels contribute roughly equally to the total effect.

5.Can Redistribution Change Policy Views? Aid and Attitudes toward Refugees

——Travis Baseler,Thomas Ginn,Robert Hakiza,Helidah Ogude-Chambert, andOlivia Woldemikael

摘要：Many public policies create winners and losers, but it is unclear whether redistribution can support new political economy equilibria that raise aggregate welfare. We study policies that partially redistribute foreign aid for refugees to natives while allowing refugees to work and move freely. Cash grants to Ugandan and Kenyan natives, labeled as aid from the refugee response, substantially increase support for refugee integration. Information about existing redistribution has significant but smaller effects. In contrast, intergroup contact yields no persistent, measurable effects. Our results indicate that economic interventions can shape policy views even on issues influenced by cultural concerns, such as immigration.

6.Welfare Assessments with Heterogeneous Individuals

——Eduardo Dávila and Andreas Schaab

摘要：This paper introduces a decomposition of welfare assessments for general dynamic stochastic economies with heterogeneous individuals. The decomposition is based on constructing individual, dynamic, and stochastic weights that characterize how welfarist planners make trade-offs across individuals, dates, and histories. Guided by the compensation principle, it initially decomposes a welfare assessment into an efficiency and a redistribution component, while the efficiency component is further decomposed into (1) aggregate efficiency, (2) risk sharing, and (3) intertemporal sharing components. Five minimal examples and three applications illustrate the properties of the decomposition and how it can be used to draw normative conclusions in specific scenarios.

7.Disability Insurance: Error Rates and Gender Differences

——Hamish Low and Luigi Pistaferri

摘要：We show the extent of screening errors made in disability insurance awards using matched survey-administrative data. False rejections are widespread, with large gender differences. Work-disabled women are 12.8 percentage points more likely to be rejected than work-disabled men, controlling for health conditions, occupation, and demographics. Gender differences arise because women are assessed with more residual work capacity. We model the Social Security Administration (SSA) decision-making process and estimate that gender differences in screening errors originate from lower costs to the SSA from incorrectly rejecting women. Noise in self-reported work limitation leads to overstating screening errors, but the gender difference remains.

8.Optimal Information Design of Online Marketplaces with Return Rights

——Jonas von Wangenheim

摘要：Consumer data increasingly enable online marketplaces to identify buyers’ preferences and provide individualized product information. Buyers, however, fully learn their product value only after contracting, when the product is delivered. I characterize the impact of such ex ante information on buyer surplus and seller surplus, when the seller sets prices and refund conditions in response to the ex ante information. I show that efficient trade and an arbitrary split of the surplus can be achieved. For the buyer-optimal signal, low-valuation buyers remain partially uninformed. Such a signal induces the seller to sell at low prices without refund options.

《经济研究评论》

《经济研究评论》于1933年由一批英国和美国经济学家联合推出，倡导理论经济学和应用经济学研究，尤其鼓励年轻经济学家的研究。如今，《经济研究评论》已被公认为五大核心经济学期刊之一。该刊是经济学家的必读刊物，以发表理论和应用经济学领域的突破性论文而著称，刊物1933年创刊。本期为大家推送2025年第5期（Vol. 92, No. 5, October 2025）。

1.Auctioning Long-Term Projects under Financial Constraints

——M Arve and D Martimort

摘要：We consider a procurement auction for the provision of a basic service to which an add-on must later be appended. Potential providers are symmetric, have private information on their cost for the basic service and the winning firm must also implement the add-on. To finance value-enhancing activities related to the add-on, this firm may need extra funding by outside financiers. Nonverifiable effort related to these activities creates a moral hazard problem which makes the firm’s payoff function for the second period concave in returns over the relevant range. Concavity has two effects. First, it makes it more attractive to backload payments to facilitate information revelation. Second, uncertainty on the cost of the add-on introduces a background risk which requires a risk premium. In this context, we characterize the optimal intertemporal structure of payments to the winning firm, equilibrium bidding behaviour and reserve prices for a first-price auction.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae106

2.Markups and Inequality

——Corina Boar, Virgiliu Midrigan

摘要：We characterize optimal product market policy in an unequal economy in which firm ownership is concentrated and markups increase with firm market shares. We study the problem of a utilitarian regulator who designs revenue-neutral interventions in the product market. We show that optimal policy increases product market concentration. This is because policies that encourage larger producers to expand improve allocative efficiency, increase the demand for labour and equilibrium wages. We derive these results both in a static Mirrleesian setting in which we impose no constraints on the shape of interventions, as well as in a dynamic economy with wealth accumulation. In our dynamic economy optimal policy reduces wealth and income inequality by redistributing market share and profits from medium-sized businesses, which are primarily owned by relatively rich entrepreneurs, to larger diversified corporate firms.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae103

3.Sowing the Seeds of Financial Crises: Endogenous Asset Creation and Adverse Selection

——Nicolas Caramp

摘要：What sows the seeds of financial crises, and what policies can help avoid them? I model the interaction between the ex-ante production of assets and ex-post adverse selection in financial markets. Positive shocks that increase market prices exacerbate the production of low-quality assets and can increase the likelihood of a financial market collapse. The interest rate and the liquidity premium are endogenous and depend on the functioning of financial markets as well as the total supply of assets (private and public). Optimal policy balances the economy’s liquidity needs ex-post with the production incentives ex-ante, and it can be implemented with three instruments: government bonds, asset purchase programs, and transaction taxes. Public liquidity improves incentives but implies a higher deadweight loss than private market interventions. Optimal policy does not rule out private market collapses but mitigates the fluctuations in total liquidity.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae092

4.Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample

——Jonathan Chapman et al.

摘要：We measure individual-level loss aversion using three incentivized, representative surveys of the U.S. population (combined N > 4,000). We find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss tolerant—they are willing to accept negative-expected-value gambles that contain a loss. This is counter to expert predictions and earlier findings—which mostly come from laboratory/student samples—that 70–90% of participants are loss averse. Consistent with the different findings in our study versus the prior literature, loss aversion is more prevalent in people with high cognitive ability. Further, our measure of gain–loss attitudes exhibits similar temporal stability and better predictive power outside our survey than measures of risk aversion. Loss-tolerant individuals are more likely to report recent gambling, investing a higher percentage of their assets in stocks, and experiencing financial shocks. These results support the general hypothesis that individuals value gains and losses differently, and that gain–loss attitudes are an important economic preference. However, the tendency in a large proportion of the population to emphasize gains over losses is an overlooked behavioural phenomenon.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae093

5.Robustly Optimal Mechanisms for Selling Multiple Goods

——Yeon-Koo Che and Weijie Zhong

摘要：We study robustly optimal mechanisms for selling multiple items. The seller maximizes revenue against a worst-case distribution of a buyer’s valuations within a set of distributions, called an “ambiguity” set. We identify the exact forms of robustly optimal selling mechanisms and the worst-case distributions when the ambiguity set satisfies various moment conditions on the values of subsets of goods. The analysis reveals general properties of the ambiguity set that justifies categorical bundling, which includes separate sales and pure bundling as special cases.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae107

6.Standard Errors for Calibrated Parameters

——Matthew D Cocci, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

摘要：Calibration, the practice of choosing the parameters of a structural model to match certain empirical moments, can be viewed as minimum distance estimation. Existing standard error formulas for such estimators require a consistent estimate of the correlation structure of the empirical moments, which is often unavailable in practice. Instead, the variances of the individual empirical moments are usually readily estimable. Using only these variances, we derive conservative standard errors and confidence intervals for the structural parameters that are valid even under the worst-case correlation structure. In the over-identified case, we show that the moment weighting scheme that minimizes the worst-case estimator variance amounts to a moment selection problem with a simple solution. Finally, we develop tests of over-identifying or parameter restrictions. We apply our methods empirically to a model of menu cost pricing for multi-product firms and to a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae099

7.Direct and Indirect Effects of Subsidized Dual Apprenticeships

——Bruno Crépon, Patrick Premand

摘要：Public interventions in the apprenticeship market often aim to increase demand or returns. We set up a double-sided experiment with youth and firms to analyse a subsidized dual apprenticeship program. This intervention seeks to relax financial constraints for youth by offering a wage subsidy and to make apprenticeship more attractive by providing vocational training in technical skills that complements on-the-job training. We document a large increase in youth participation in apprenticeship, yet the inflow of apprentices induces little crowding out of traditional apprentices in firms. The intervention leads to an increase in youth demand for apprenticeship, enabling firms to fill open apprenticeship positions. The subsidy compensates apprentices for low wages but does not alleviate financial constraints. Consistent with the dual training component contributing to an increase in youth demand for apprenticeship, youth perform more complex tasks and have higher earnings 4 years after the start of the experiment.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae094

8.Untying the Knot: How Child Support and Alimony Affect Couples’ Dynamic Decisions and Welfare

——Hanno Foerster

摘要：In many countries, divorce law mandates post-marital maintenance payments (child support and alimony) to insure the lower earner in married couples against financial losses upon divorce. This paper studies how maintenance payments affect couples’ intertemporal decisions and welfare. I develop a dynamic model of family labour supply, home production, savings, and divorce and estimate it using Danish register and survey data. The model captures the policy tradeoff between providing insurance to the lower earner and enabling couples to specialise efficiently, on the one hand, and maintaining labour supply incentives for divorcees, on the other hand. I use the estimated model to study various counterfactual policy scenarios. I find that alimony comes with more substantial labour supply disincentives compared to child support payments and is less efficient in providing consumption insurance. The welfare maximising policy, within the status quo policy space, involves increasing child support and reducing alimony payments. My results show that Pareto improvements beyond this welfare maximising policy are feasible, highlighting limitations of how child support and alimony policies are commonly implemented.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae105

9.Who Bears the Welfare Costs of Monopoly? The Case of the Credit Card Industry

——Kyle F Herkenhoff,

Gajendran Raveendranathan

摘要：We measure the distribution of welfare losses from non-competitive behaviour in the U.S. credit card industry during the 1970s and 1980s. The early credit card industry was characterized by regional monopolies. Ensuing legal decisions led to competitive reforms that resulted in greater, but still limited, oligopolistic competition. We measure the distributional consequences of these reforms by developing and estimating a heterogeneous agent, defaultable debt framework with oligopolistic lenders. The transition from monopoly to oligopolistic competition yields welfare gains equivalent to a one-time transfer worth 3,600 (in 2016 dollars) for the bottom decile of earners (roughly 50% of their annual income) versus 1,200 for the top decile of earners. As the credit market expands, low-income households benefit more since they rely disproportionately on credit to smooth consumption. Greater competition also explains rising bankruptcies, chargeoffs, and credit to income ratios. Lastly, we bound the welfare gains from competition by computing a perfectly competitive benchmark. Aggregate welfare gains are 40% larger from perfect competition but distributed similarly to oligopolistic competition.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae098

10.Moment Conditions for Dynamic Panel Logit Models with Fixed Effects

——Bo E Honoré, Martin Weidner

摘要：This paper investigates the construction of moment conditions in discrete choice panel data with individual-specific fixed effects. We describe how to systematically explore the existence of moment conditions that do not depend on the fixed effects, and we demonstrate how to construct them when they exist. Our approach is closely related to the numerical “functional differencing” construction introduced in a seminal paper by Bonhomme, but our emphasis is to find explicit analytic expressions for the moment functions. We first explain the construction and give examples of such moment conditions in various models. Then, we focus on the dynamic binary choice logit model and explore the implications of the moment conditions for the identification and estimation of the model parameters that are common to all individuals.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae097

11.Rational Expectations Models with Higher-Order Beliefs

——Zhen Huo, Naoki Takayama

摘要：We develop a method of solving rational expectations models with dispersed information and dynamic strategic complementarities. In these types of models, the equilibrium outcome hinges on an infinite number of higher-order expectations which require an increasing number of state variables to keep track of. Despite this complication, we prove that the equilibrium outcome always admits a finite-state representation when the signals follow finite ARMA processes. We also show that such a finite-state result may not hold with endogenous information aggregation. We further illustrate how to use the method to derive comparative statics, characterize equilibrium outcomes in HANK-type network games, reconcile with empirical evidence on expectations, and integrate incomplete information with bounded rationality in general equilibrium.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae096

12.The Child Penalty Atlas

——Henrik Kleven et al.

摘要：This paper builds a world atlas of child penalties in employment based on microdata from 134 countries. The estimation of child penalties is based on pseudo-event studies of first child birth using cross-sectional data. The pseudo-event studies are validated against true event studies using panel data for a subset of countries. Most countries display clear and sizable child penalties: men and women follow parallel trends before parenthood, but diverge sharply and persistently after parenthood. While this pattern is pervasive, there is enormous variation in the magnitude of the effects across different regions of the world. The fraction of gender inequality explained by child penalties varies systematically with economic development and proxies for structural transformation. At low levels of development, child penalties represent a minuscule fraction of gender inequality. But as economies develop—incomes rise and the labour market transitions from subsistence agriculture to salaried work in industry and services—child penalties take over as the dominant driver of gender inequality. The relationship between child penalties and development is validated using historical data from current high-income countries, back to the 1700s for some countries. Finally, because parenthood is often tied to marriage, we also investigate the existence of marriage penalties in female employment. In general, women experience both marriage and child penalties, but their relative importance depends on the level of development. The development process is associated with a substitution from marriage penalties to child penalties, with the former gradually converging to zero.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae104

13.A Dynamic Model of Authoritarian Social Control

——Roger Lagunoff

摘要：Authoritarian regimes often use targeted social control—unequal application of the law to limit expressive freedom and enforce social conformity. At the same time, their methods appear less draconian than in the past. In this model, an authority structures punishments and rewards to compel adherence to its preferred norm. The authority’s commitment is time-limited and depends on imperfectly informative signals of a citizen’s behaviour. Given two citizens with the same observed behaviour, the authority imposes harsher punishments on the poorer and/or ex ante dissident individual. Lighter punishments are imposed on the wealthier citizen to prevent “over-compliance”. Wealth inequality increases over time. Some citizens become prosperous “lackeys” while others become destitute from confiscation. In stable regimes with high state capacity, the authority reduces punishments and/or increases rewards to allow citizens to accumulate wealth, leading to social conformity and balanced growth in the long run. In unstable regimes with low capacity, the citizenry splits into groups of wealthy lackeys and destitute proles.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae109

14.On the Family Origins of Human Capital Formation: Evidence from Donor Children

——Petter Lundborg et al.

摘要：We introduce a novel strategy to study the intergenerational transmission of human capital skills, net of genetic skill transfers. For this purpose, we use unique Danish data on children conceived through sperm and egg donation in in vitro fertilization treatments to estimate the relationship between child test scores and parental years of schooling. Because the assignment of donors is not selective, these parental schooling estimates allow for a causal nurture interpretation. Once we take account of genes, we find that only the education of mothers matters: the association between father’s education and child test scores (in reading and math) is insignificant and practically zero, whereas the association between mother’s education and child test scores (in reading, not in math) is significant and large, and as large as the association we estimate for mothers of non-donor children.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae101

15.The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932–33

——Andrei Markevich et al.

摘要：We construct a novel panel dataset for interwar Soviet Union to study the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) during 1932–3 and document several facts: (1) Ukraine produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine in Ukraine; (2) 1933 mortality in the Soviet Union was increasing in the pre-famine ethnic Ukrainian population share and (3) was unrelated to food productivity across regions; (4) this pattern exists even outside of Ukraine; (5) migration restrictions exacerbated mortality; (6) actual and planned grain procurement were increasing and actual and planned grain retention (production minus procurement) were decreasing in the ethnic Ukrainian population share across regions. The results imply that anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy contributed to high Ukrainian famine mortality, and that this bias systematically targeted ethnic Ukrainians across the Soviet Union.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae091

16.Electoral Turnovers

——Benjamin Marx et al.

摘要：In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study all presidential and parliamentary elections held globally between 1946 and 2018. We document the prevalence of turnovers over time and estimate their effects on economic performance, human development, and the quality of democracy. Using a close-elections regression discontinuity design across countries, we show that turnovers improve several measures of country performance. To explain these positive effects, we explore how electoral turnovers affect leader characteristics, shape policy decisions, reduce perceived corruption, and foster accountability.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae108

17.Fines and Financial Wellbeing

——Steven Mello

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae111

18.Wealth Taxation and Household Saving: Evidence from Assessment Discontinuities in Norway

——Marius A K Ring

摘要：Neither theory nor existing empirical evidence support the notion that wealth taxation reduces saving. Theoretically, the effect is ambiguous due to opposing income and substitution effects. Empirically, the effect may be masked by misreporting responses. Using geographic discontinuities in the Norwegian annual net-wealth tax and third-party-reported data on savings, I find that wealth taxation causes households to save more. Each additional NOK of wealth tax increases annual net financial saving by 3.76, implying that households increase saving enough to offset both current and future wealth taxes. This positive effect on saving is primarily financed by increases in labour earnings. These responses are the combination of small negative effects of increasing the marginal tax rates and larger positive effects of increasing average rates. My findings imply that income effects may dominate substitution effects in household responses to rate-of-return shocks, which has implications for both optimal taxation and macroeconomic modelling.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae100

19.The Economics of Financial Stress

——Dmitriy Sergeyev et al.

摘要：We study the psychological costs of financial constraints and their economic consequences. Using a representative survey of U.S. households, we document the prevalence of financial stress in U.S. households and a strong relationship between financial stress and measures of financial constraints. We incorporate financial stress into an otherwise standard dynamic model of consumption and labour supply. We emphasize two key results. First, both financial stress itself and naivete about financial stress are important components of a psychology-based theory of the poverty trap. Sophisticated households, instead, save extra to escape high-stress states because they understand that doing so alleviates the economic consequences of financial stress. Second, the financial stress channel dampens or reverses the counterfactual large negative wealth effect on labour earnings because relieving stress frees up cognitive resources for productive work. Financial stress also has macroeconomic implications for wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae110

20.Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach

——Wenting Song, Samuel Stern

摘要：This paper provides empirical evidence of the importance of firm attention to macroeconomic dynamics. We construct a text-based measure of attention to macroeconomic news and document that attention is polarized across firms and countercyclical. Differences in attention lead to asymmetric responses to monetary policy: expansionary monetary shocks raise the market values of attentive firms more than those of inattentive firms, and contractionary shocks lower the values of attentive firms by less. Attention also mitigates the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on firm performance. In a quantitative rational inattention model that is calibrated with this new text-based measure, inattention drives monetary non-neutrality. As average attention varies over the business cycle, so does the efficacy of monetary policy.

全文链接：https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae102