摘要：The digital economy is overtaking the industrial economy and reshaping every subfield of economics. As a result, widely accepted c

China & World Economy/ 1–40, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

Trade Theories in the Digital Age

Yongjin Wang, Wenbin Wang

Abstract

The digital economy is overtaking the industrial economy and reshaping every subfield of economics. As a result, widely accepted conclusions and policy implications of international trade theories are becoming outdated. This paper endeavors to delineate some of the potential directions in which digital technologies may disrupt and overturn traditional trade theories. It also provides frameworks that enable the conceptualization and analysis of international trade in the digital age. The advance of digital technology has given rise to novel industries and numerous supporting infrastructures and has instigated a fundamental transformation of traditional industries. This transformation is evident across multiple dimensions, including factors of production, product attributes, production technology, market structures, business models, and consumer search behaviors.

引用本文：

Wang, Y. J. and W. B. Wang, 2025, "Trade theories in the digital age," China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 1–40.

China & World Economy/ 41–64, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

The Post-Bretton Woods System and US External Unsustainability

Yongding Yu, Bohan Yang

Abstract

The persistent US current account deficit, supported by the post-Bretton Woods system, will continue to worsen the country's net foreign debt position. The net foreign debt-to-GDP ratio, shaped by factors such as the US budget deficit, the gap between private investment and savings, investment income, and GDP growth, will steadily increase as it approaches a critical threshold. Shifts in these factors will push the trajectory of the ratio upward, and foreign investors' willingness to hold US assets will play a pivotal role as the ratio nears its limit. Exceeding this threshold could trigger a balance of payments crisis. Furthermore, the weaponization of the US dollar has significantly eroded its credibility as the cornerstone of the post-Bretton Woods system, raising concerns about the US's ability to sustain its external debt and finance its deficits without precipitating a financial crisis.

引用本文：

Yu, Y. D. and B. H. Yang, 2025, "The post-Bretton Woods system and US external unsustainability," China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 41–64.

China & World Economy/ 65–97, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

Can Quality and Safety Demonstration Zone Policy Lower Nontariff Barriers? Evidence from Sino–US Food and Agricultural Trade

Rui Xiao, Genyuan Zhong, Xifang Ma

Abstract

Technical regulations and product standards are increasingly hindering international food and agricultural trade, particularly for developing countries. This paper examines the impact of China's place-based agricultural policy – specifically, the establishment of quality and safety demonstration zones for exported food and agricultural products – on reducing the disparity in product standards between China and the US. Using panel data for Chinese cities between 2009 and 2017, this study employed a difference-in-differences approach and found that the policy significantly reduced the incidences of US import refusals related to China's exported products. Mechanism analysis suggests that adoption of new production technology was the primary driver of this improvement, narrowing the technical gap between the two countries. The findings offer actionable insights for developing countries seeking to address nontariff barriers and improve food and agricultural exports to developed markets.

引用本文：

Xiao, R., G. Y. Zhong, and X. F. Ma, 2025, "Can quality and safety demonstration zone policy lower nontariff barriers? Evidence from Sino–US food and agricultural trade," China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 65–97.

China & World Economy/ 98–137, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

International Transport Corridors and the Growth of China's Environmental Goods Exports: Evidence from the China–Europe Railway Express

Chang Song, Yibing Ding, Yingjie Fu, Jingyi Liu

Abstract

This paper investigates the mechanisms and effects of international transport corridors on the growth of China's environmental goods exports. Using bilateral data between Chinese provinces and their trading partners, this study treats the opening of the China–Europe Railway Express (CRE) as a quasi-experiment and employs a staggered difference-in-differences method for empirical testing. The results show that the opening of the CRE has promoted the growth of China's environmental goods exports. This growth was driven by mechanisms that increased demand in the international market, diversified the export of environmental goods, stimulated environmental innovation, and enhanced China's capacity to supply environmental goods globally. Significant heterogeneity was observed in the trade of environmental goods due to differences in product types, exporting provinces, and importing countries. The findings suggest that the international transport corridors can generate mutual benefits in the trade of environmental goods.

引用本文：

Song, C., Y. B. Ding, Y. J. Fu and J. Y. Liu, 2025, "International transport corridors and the growth of China's environmental goods exports: Evidence from the China–Europe railway express," China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 98–137.

China & World Economy/ 138–170, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

It's not Overcapacity, but a Matter of Global Imbalances

Kai Guo, He Zhu, Fei Yu, Jiajia Zhang

Abstract

Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and major power competition, the US and several Western nations have claimed that China has significant “overcapacity” in manufacturing and have imposed various tariff and nontariff trade measures to shield domestic industries. Using data from publicly listed companies, this study conducted an industry-level analysis of investment and capacity expansion in China's manufacturing sector. We find that the growth in manufacturing investment is currently driven mainly by the “new trio” (electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium batteries), and most enterprises have begun market-oriented clearing. However, the new trio involved in investment and capacity expansion accounts for only a small portion of China's manufacturing sector. The US narrative regarding China's overcapacity is therefore fundamentally misleading. From the perspective of major power dynamics, the essence of the overcapacity narrative lies in China–US trade imbalances, which are, in turn, a consequence of macroeconomic imbalances between the two nations. Insufficient demand in China and excess demand in the US form the underlying impetus behind the trade imbalances.

引用本文：

Guo, K., H. Zhu, F. Yu and J. J. Zhang, 2025, "It's not overcapacity, but a matter of global imbalance," China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 138–70.

China & World Economy/ 171–208, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

Can Digital Transformation Reduce the Zombification of Enterprises?

Xiujuan Lan, Zheneng Hu, Chuanhao Wen

Abstract

Digital transformation stimulates enterprise development but its effects on zombification are uncertain. This study analyzed the effects of digital transformation on de-zombification among A-share listed Chinese companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2009 to 2021 and the mechanisms underlying those effects. The findings indicated that digital transformation facilitated enterprise de-zombification, with a stronger effect observed in state-owned enterprises, high-tech enterprises, firms in industries with low levels of competition, those with advanced digital transformation, and cities with high levels of government intervention. Further analysis identified improved production efficiency and capital allocation as important factors enabling this process. Enterprises at risk of zombification should prioritize digital transformation as a fundamental strategy for recovery. Governance strategies should be tailored to the specific characteristics of various types of zombie enterprises. The government may consider offering financial or tax incentives to assist these firms in their digital transformation efforts, enabling them to overcome the challenges associated with zombification while enhancing both production efficiency and the efficacy of capital allocation.

引用本文：

Lan, X. J., Z. N. Hu and C. H. Wen, 2025, "Can digital transformation reduce the zombification of enterprises?" China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 171–208.

China & World Economy/ 209–251, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

Industrial Robot Adoption, Human Capital, and Global Value Chain Upgrading: Insights from China

Tianding Zhang, Sumei Gan

Abstract

Concerns have been raised that the adoption of industrial robots in developed economies may hinder industrialization and displace jobs in emerging economies. However, the growing use of robots in emerging economies may help mitigate these negative effects. This study, drawing on a theoretical model and empirical analysis, reveals that the adoption of robots in China, a developing country, significantly enhanced firms' positions in global value chains (GVCs). A detailed analysis reveals that markups and the structure of intermediate inputs were key mechanisms. The study also found that improvements in human capital enhanced the efficiency of robots, enabling firms to use them more effectively, which further strengthened the firms' position in GVCs. The positive impact of the adoption of robots on GVC upgrading was more pronounced in non-resource-based cities and cities with high labor costs. Furthermore, the study highlights that robot adoption in medium- and high-tech industries had a greater impact on GVC upgrading. In conclusion, this study suggests that robot adoption in emerging economies can enhance their position in GVCs, with human capital playing a crucial role.

引用本文：

Zhang, T. D. and S. M. Gan, 2025, "Industrial robot adoption, human capital, and global value chain upgrading: Insights from China," China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 209–51.

China & World Economy/ 252–282, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2025

Tax−Debt Substitution? Local Government Debt Management and Corporate Tax Burden

Yixuan Tan, Jianjun Li, Fanghui Li

Abstract

The Local Debt Management System Reform, introduced in 2014 and implemented in subsequent years, was a key initiative by the Chinese government to mitigate local government debt risks. Using its implementation as a natural experiment, this study examined its impact on corporate tax burdens. The results indicated that tighter debt constraints significantly increased corporate tax burdens, as local governments intensified tax collection to offset reduced debt-related revenue. This effect was stronger in areas that were reliant on land financing and less economically developed. Further analysis revealed that, rather than reducing expenditure, local governments sought alternative revenue sources, including urban investment bonds, land transfer income, and public–private partnership projects. These findings illuminate local fiscal behavior under debt constraint and provide insights for the design of institutional frameworks aiming to manage local debt risks.

引用本文：

Tan, Y. X., J. J. Li and F. H. Li, 2025, "Tax−debt substitution? Local government debt management and corporate tax burden," China & World Economy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 252–82.

来源：中国社科院世经政所