摘要：Imagine you're standing on the old, wooden Nihonbashi Bridge in the ancient Japanese city of Edo, now known as Tokyo.

Imagine you're standing on the old, wooden Nihonbashi Bridge in the ancient Japanese city of Edo, now known as Tokyo.

想象一下， 你正站在古老的日本城市江户（现今的东京）那座古老的木制日本桥上。 时间大约是1750年，正值德川幕府的时代。

It's around 1750, in the era of the Tokugawa shoguns.

大约是1750年，处于德川幕府的时代。

People are chatting.

人们正闲聊着。

Laborers are pushing cartloads of rice.

劳工们正推着满载大米的手推车。

Seafood traders are rushing across to the fish market.

海鲜商贩们正匆匆赶往鱼市。

Now Edo wasn't just remarkable for being a huge city of over a million people, far larger than London or Paris at the time.

如今，江户不仅因其拥有超过百万人口的巨大城市规模而引人注目， 这一规模远超当时的伦敦或巴黎， 更因其运作着我们今天所称的循环经济体系而独具特色。在这一体系中， 几乎所有物品都能被重新利用、修复、改造或回收。

It also operated what we would today call a circular economy, where almost everything was reused, repaired, repurposed or recycled.

它还运行着一种今天我们称之为循环经济的体系，在这种体系中，几乎所有的东西都会被重复使用、维修、重新利用或回收。

So Japan's policy of not trading with the outside world led to shortages of precious resources, like wood and cotton.

因此，日本不与外界贸易的政策导致了木材和棉花等珍贵资源的短缺。

So a tradition of patchwork developed, known as "boro," meaning tattered rags, where fragments of old cloth were sewn together into garments that were then passed on down the generations, just like the one I'm wearing, which is over 100 years old.

于是，一种拼布的传统应运而生，被称为“boro”，意指破布，将旧布料的碎片缝制成衣物， 这些衣物随后代代相传，就像我身上这件， 已有100多年的历史。 一件和服可能会一直使用到布料开始磨损， 然后改制成睡衣， 再裁剪成尿布， 接着用作清洁布， 最后作为燃料焚烧。

A kimono might be used until the cloth began to wear out, then turned into pajamas, then cut up into nappies, then used as cleaning cloths and finally burned as fuel.

一件和服可能会一直使用， 直到布料开始磨损，然后被改制成睡衣， 接着裁剪成尿布，再作为清洁布使用， 最终被当作燃料焚烧。

Edo had over 1,000 circular businesses, from collecting candle wax drippings to be remolded to down-and-out samurai repairing old umbrellas.

江户拥有超过1000种循环经济产业，从收集蜡烛滴蜡以供重塑， 到落魄武士修理旧伞， 无所不包。

Traders even paid for human waste, which was then sold as agricultural fertilizer.

商人们甚至花钱收购人类排泄物，将其作为农业肥料出售。

Strict timber rationing rules were also introduced, to restore the nation's depleted old-growth forests.

严格的木材配给制度也被引入，以恢复国家枯竭的原始森林。

This was one of the world's first large-scale examples of a low-waste, low-carbon ecological civilization.

这是全球首批大规模践行低浪费、低碳排放的生态文明的范例之一。

Now Edo Japan wasn't a utopia, having feudal and patriarchal inequalities, yet 300 years on, it offers hope that we can create economies today that are driven not by the chronic wastefulness and ecological blindness of consumer capitalism, but by a deep culture of sustainability.

现在，江户时期的日本并不是一个乌托邦， 它存在着封建和父权的不平等，然而300年后的今天， 它为我们带来了希望， 即我们可以建立一种经济体系， 这种体系不是由消费资本主义的长期浪费和生态盲目性驱动的，而是由一种深厚的可持续文化驱动的。

I mean, if we were to adopt the circular mindset of "Edonomics, " we'd rapidly phase out the sale of products like standard smartphones, which use over half the elements of the periodic table and are often discarded after less than three years.

我的意思是，如果我们采纳“江户经济学”的循环思维，我们会迅速淘汰销售那些使用了周期表中一半以上元素的标准智能手机，而这些手机通常在不到三年后就被丢弃。

And instead, we'd introduce regenerative standards so that the only phones permitted for sale would use recycled materials and be modular by design, with easily replaceable screens and batteries.

相反，我们会推行再生标准， 这样唯一允许销售的手机将采用回收材料， 设计上具备模块化特点，屏幕和电池易于更换。

I mean, wouldn't that be great?

我的意思是，那岂不是很好？

And like many other historical examples, such as the ancestral circular economy in precolonial Hawaii, Edo shows that it's possible to combine radical sustainability with cultural flourishing.

就像许多其他历史实例，如前殖民时期夏威夷的祖传循环经济所示，江户时代证明了将彻底的可持续性与文化繁荣相结合是可能的。

It gave birth to the artworks of Hiroshige, to the poetry of Bashō, and to a thriving culture of sumo wrestling.

这孕育了广重（Hiroshige）的艺术作品，诞生了芭蕉（Bashō）的诗篇， 并催生出蓬勃发展的相扑文化。

I mean, what's not to like?

我的意思是，有什么不值得喜欢的呢？

Now why am I telling you about the economy of ancient Japan?

那我为什么要跟你们讲古代日本的经济呢？

Because it reveals how history is one of our most undervalued resources for thinking about the future of humanity, and we have vast amounts of the stuff to tap into.

因为这揭示了历史是我们最被低估的关于人类未来思考的资源之一，而我们有大量这样的资源可以利用。

I mean, we're in an age of polycrisis, from a climate emergency to risks from AI and threats to democracy.

我的意思是， 我们正处于一个多危机时代，从气候紧急状况到人工智能带来的风险以及对民主的威胁。

History can help us navigate our way through the turbulence, acting as a counselor rather than as a clairvoyant.

历史可以帮助我们度过动荡时期，充当顾问而非先知。

But, you know, with my background as a political scientist, I've become increasingly frustrated by the way that our politicians and policymakers remain trapped in the tyranny of the now, driven by the latest opinion poll, or hoping that new technologies will come to our civilizational rescue.

但是，你知道的，作为一名政治科学家，我越来越对我们的政客和政策制定者感到沮丧， 他们被困在了“当下”的暴政中，被最新的民意调查所驱动， 或者寄希望于新技术会拯救我们的文明。

They are failing to see that in order to go forwards, we'd be wise to look backwards.

他们未能意识到，为了前进，我们应明智地回顾过去。

Now the idea of learning from history, what's sometimes called applied history, is far from new.

现在，学习历史的理念，即有时被称为应用历史学的概念，绝非新鲜事物。

200 years ago, the German writer Goethe declared, "He who cannot draw on 3,000 years is living from hand to mouth." Now, typically, learning from history focuses on warnings captured in the famous aphorism that those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

两百年前，德国作家歌德宣称：“无法汲取三千年历史经验的人，注定是浅薄的。”如今，通常情况下，从历史中学习——有时被称为应用历史——主要集中在那些著名的格言所蕴含的警示上，即那些遗忘过去的人必将重蹈覆辙。

Yet my research on the power of history for tomorrow reveals just how much inspiration can be found in positive examples of what's gone right, not only in cautionary tales of what's gone wrong.

然而，我关于历史对未来力量的研究揭示了，不仅从那些出错的警示故事中，更从那些做对事情的正面范例里，我们能找到多少启发。

Time and again, we have acted together, often against the odds, and succeeded to overcome crises and tackle injustices.

我们一次又一次地共同行动，常常是在逆境中， 成功地克服了危机， 解决了不公正问题。

So let me just offer you a couple more examples of where we can find hope in history, out of the dozens I've explored by looking across the last millennia, which speak to the ecological dilemmas of our time.

因此， 让我再举几个历史中的例子，这些例子来自我跨越过去千年所探究的众多案例，它们反映了我们当代所面临的生态困境， 并为我们提供了希望的源泉。

Now if I could travel back to any moment in the past, it would be to the Spanish city of Córdoba in around the year 1000, which was part of the Islamic Kingdom of Al-Andalus, which ruled over the southern part of today's Spain.

若能重返历史长河中的任一时刻，我会选择公元1000年左右的西班牙科尔多瓦城，那时它隶属于统治着现今西班牙南部的伊斯兰王国——安达卢斯。

Now what made Córdoba so extraordinary was that Muslims, Christians and Jews managed to live side by side in relative harmony, in a period known as the convivencia, literally the "coexistence" or the "living together." And although there were everyday tensions and occasional outbreaks of violence, it was generally a time of cultural tolerance.

科尔多瓦之所以非凡，是因为穆斯林、基督徒和犹太人能够在相对和谐的环境中比邻而居，这一时期被称为“共存”或“共同生活” 的时期。 尽管日常生活中存在紧张关系， 偶尔也会爆发暴力事件，但总体而言， 这是一个文化宽容的时代。 穆斯林和基督徒共同演奏音乐。

Muslims and Christians played music together.

穆斯林和基督徒一起演奏音乐。

Jews and Muslims might have a game of chess.

犹太人与穆斯林或许会来一局国际象棋。

People mixed together in the public bathhouses and in the marketplaces, creating webs of economic relations.

人们在公共浴室和市场里混杂相处，编织出错综复杂的经济关系网。

There's the story of Samuel ha-Nagid, a Jewish poet whose skills as an Arabic scribe enabled him to rise to become the prime minister of the Muslim ruler of Granada, and even lead his military forces.

这里有一个故事， 关于塞缪尔·哈-纳吉德，一位犹太诗人， 他的阿拉伯文抄写技能使他得以升至格拉纳达穆斯林统治者的首相之位，甚至领导其军事力量。

Convivencia was built not just on the shared language of Arabic and on the freedom of religion permitted by Islamic law but was crucially due to the daily interactions of urban life.

共存不仅建立在共享的阿拉伯语言和伊斯兰法所允许的宗教自由之上，更关键的是得益于城市生活中的日常互动。

You know, there was this recent study of 29 countries which showed that levels of intercultural tolerance rise rapidly with even small increases in the size of size of cities, which is precisely what Córdoba, a city of nearly half a million people, proved more than 1,000 years ago.

你知道， 最近一项针对29个国家的研究发现， 城市规模的微小增长就能迅速提升跨文化容忍度，而科尔多瓦——这座拥有近50万人口的城市，早在1000多年前就已证明了这一点。

I think there's a message here for our era of growing xenophobia and far-right nationalism, which is set to increase as the ecological crisis compels more and more people to migrate from their homelands.

我认为，这对于我们这个日益充满排外情绪和极端民族主义的时代来说， 是一个启示。随着生态危机迫使越来越多的人离开家园， 这种情绪和主义预计将会加剧。

History offers an antidote to the idea of an inevitable clash of civilizations, showing how it's possible for us to live together with difference in multicultural communities, forging what the 14th-century Islamic historian Ibn Khaldūn called asabiyya, an Arabic term meaning "collective solidarity" or group feeling, which he believed was vital to prevent the breakdown of civilizations.

历史为我们提供了对抗“文明必然冲突” 观念的良方，展示了在多元文化社会中， 我们如何能够与差异共存，共同铸就14世纪伊斯兰历史学家伊本·赫勒敦所称的“阿萨比亚”——一个阿拉伯语词汇， 意指“集体团结” 或群体情感，他认为这对于防止文明崩溃至关重要。

And we can all nurture the invisible threads of asabiyya in our everyday lives.

我们都能在日常生活中培养这种无形的团结纽带。

It can be as simple as having a conversation with a stranger once a week or joining a local sports team with players from diverse backgrounds.

这可以简单到每周与陌生人进行一次对话，或是加入一支由不同背景成员组成的本地运动队。

So you know we can see prospects for a different kind of economy in 18th-century Edo, Japan, and for cultural coexistence in medieval Islamic Spain.

因此，我们了解到， 在18世纪的日本江户时期， 可以看到一种新型经济的萌芽；而在中世纪的伊斯兰西班牙， 文化共存的可能性也得以显现。

But what about compelling our governments to take the urgent action required to overcome our continuing addiction to fossil fuels, which is driving us over perilous planetary tipping points?

但如何才能促使我们的政府采取紧急行动，以克服我们对化石燃料的持续依赖，这种依赖正将我们推向地球危险的临界点呢？

Well history offers a very clear reason for radical hope that disruptive movements can change the system.

好吧，历史提供了一个非常明确的理由，让我们对激进的希望抱有信念，即颠覆性的运动可以改变整个系统。

Let's journey back to the 1820s, when over 700,000 enslaved people were working on British-owned sugar plantations in the West Indies.

让我们回到1820年代，当时超过70万的奴隶在西印度群岛的英国拥有的甘蔗种植园工作。

Now at that time, many plantation owners and financiers made remarkably similar arguments to today's fossil-fuel executives to defend their actions.

那时，许多种植园主和金融家为了为自己的行为辩护，提出了与当今化石燃料高管极为相似的论点。

They admitted that slavery, like oil and gas production, was morally questionable, but they claimed that ending it too rapidly could easily lead to economic collapse.

他们承认，如同石油和天然气生产一样，奴隶制度在道德上是值得质疑的， 但他们声称， 如果终止得过于迅速， 可能会轻易导致经济崩溃。

So instead, they argued that slavery should be phased out gradually, over many decades.

因此，他们主张奴隶制应分阶段逐步废除，这一过程可能需要数十年时间。

Well it's an excuse we hear repeatedly today from the fossil-energy industry, which displays the very same foot-dragging gradualism.

这正是我们今天反复从化石能源行业听到的借口，他们展现出的正是这种拖延不决、渐进式的态度。

Now the British abolition movement was organized in the Society for [the Mitigation and Gradual Abolition of Slavery.

现在，英国废奴运动是在“奴隶制缓解与逐步废除协会”中组织起来的。

] Right, the name said it all.

没错，光看名字就一目了然。

Its reformist strategy of lobbying politicians and publishing pamphlets was making little headway.

其改革策略，即游说政客和出版小册子，进展甚微。

The turning point came in 1831, in an act of disruption which sent shock waves through Britain: the Jamaica Slave Revolt.

转折点出现在1831年，一次震撼英国的破坏性事件——牙买亚奴隶起义。

More than 20,000 enslaved workers rose up in rebellion in Jamaica, setting fire to over 200 plantations.

超过两万名被奴役的工人于牙买加揭竿而起， 反抗压迫，纵火烧毁了逾两百座种植园。

The revolt was brutally crushed, but it sent a wave of panic through the British establishment, who concluded that if they didn't grant emancipation, then the whole colony might be lost.

起义被残酷镇压， 但它引发了一股恐慌浪潮席卷英国统治阶层，他们意识到， 如果不给予解放，整个殖民地可能就此丧失。

Multiple studies showed that the revolt tipped the scales in favor of abolition, leading to the Slavery Abolition Act of 1833.

多项研究表明， 这次起义促使废奴的呼声高涨，最终导致了1833年《废奴法案》的通过。

In the absence of this disruptive radical flank movement, it might have taken decades longer for abolition to enter the statute books than if left in the hands of the reformist white elite.

如果没有这种激进的边缘运动的干扰，废除奴隶制可能需要几十年的时间才能写入法律， 而如果只交给改革派白人精英处理的话。

Now many people are quick to criticize today's radical, nonviolent climate movements, like Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil.

如今，许多人急于批评当下的激进非暴力气候运动，如“反抗灭绝”和“停止采油”。

But let's remember that they are part of long traditions of successful disruptive movements going back to the Jamaica rebels and to the suffragettes, and the Indian independence movement and US civil rights activists, whose actions have helped amplify existing crises and catapulted them onto the political agenda.

但我们要记住，这些运动是源远流长的成功破坏性运动传统的一部分，可以追溯到牙买加叛军、妇女参政权论者、印度独立运动以及美国民权活动家。他们的行动有助于放大现有危机，并将其推上政治议程。

In doing so, they've often broken the rules and, sometimes, the law, to create change when all other pathways were blocked.

为此， 他们常常打破规则，甚至有时违法， 以在所有其他途径都被阻断时推动变革。

The great tragedy is that, while disruptive figures like Emmeline Pankhurst and Martin Luther King, Jr. are now celebrated in our children's school history textbooks, their modern equivalents in today's ecological movements are frequently demonized by the press and criminalized by the police.

巨大的悲剧在于，尽管像埃米琳·潘克赫斯特和马丁·路德·金这样的变革性人物如今在我们的儿童历史教科书中受到赞扬，但当今生态运动中的类似人物却常常被媒体妖魔化，并被警方刑事化。

I mean, have we learned nothing?

我是说，我们难道什么都没学到吗？

I mean, personally, I'm not a natural disrupter, and prefer sitting in old libraries, reading books.

我的意思是，就个人而言，我并非天生的破坏者，更偏爱坐在古老的图书馆里，静静地阅读书籍。

But because of what I've discovered in those libraries about the power of disruptive movements, I have found myself lying on the street, blocking the road with my teenage daughter in front of London's Parliament, exasperated by the government's glacial pace of action on the climate crisis.

但正是我在那些图书馆里发现的关于颠覆性运动力量的知识，让我发现自己躺在了伦敦议会前的街道上，与正值青春期的女儿一起阻塞交通，对政府在气候危机问题上行动的迟缓感到极度沮丧。

I realize that it annoys commuters, but our inaction is going to infuriate future generations even more.

我意识到这惹恼了通勤者，但我们的无所作为将会更加激怒未来的世代。

I can't think of a better way to be a good ancestor.

我想不出有更好的方式来做一个好祖先。

I mean, it's too late and too reckless to leave this crisis to simmer on the low flame of gradualism.

我的意思是，将这场危机留给渐进主义的微弱火焰慢慢炖煮，既为时已晚，也过于鲁莽。

I'm not optimistic about the prospects for the human species.

我对人类物种的前景不乐观。

I believe that humanity is currently on a pathway towards ecological and technological self-termination.

我相信，人类当前正走在一条通向生态和技术自我毁灭的道路上。

But history gives me genuine hope that it doesn't have to be this way.

但历史给予了我真正的希望，事情不必如此发展。

We are not starting from zero.

我们并非从头开始。

The past is full of inspiring possibilities that must guide us today, so we always act as if change is possible.

过去充满了激励人心的可能性， 这些可能性必须指引我们今天的行为，因此我们总是以改变可能发生的态度行事。

Because from what I've seen, it just might be.

因为根据我所见，这或许真的可能。

If our civilization is going to bend rather than break as we face the turbulence of the coming decades, we need to develop what I call temporal intelligence, the capacity to think on multiple time horizons, both forwards and backwards.

面对未来几十年的动荡， 如果我们的文明希望能够弯曲而非断裂，我们需要培养一种我称之为“时间智能”的能力， 即能够在多个时间维度上进行思考，既向前看也向后看。

Now, of course, history has always been used and abused by those in power.

当然，历史一直被当权者利用和滥用。

So we need to be wary of gross distortions and rosy romanticism and treat the past with care.

所以我们需要警惕严重的扭曲和粉饰的浪漫主义，并谨慎对待过去。

How might we do so and develop our temporal intelligence?

我们如何做到这一点并培养我们的时间智慧呢？

Well if schools taught applied history, then children might know how ancient Japanese sustainability practices could help reshape today's world.

如果学校教授应用历史学，那么孩子们可能会明白， 古代日本的可持续实践如何能助力重塑当今世界。

Or what if governments created not just foresight units, but backsight units, which systematically learn from the history of public policy?

或者，如果政府不仅设立了前瞻性部门，还创建了回顾性部门， 这些部门系统地从公共政策的历史中汲取教训， 那会怎样呢？

And wouldn't it be fascinating to visit a "History for Tomorrow Museum, " which explores how history can help us confront 21st-century challenges, from the ecological crisis to the risks of AI and genetic engineering.

参观一个名为“明日之史博物馆” 的地方岂不是令人着迷？这个博物馆探讨历史如何助力我们应对21世纪的挑战，从生态危机到人工智能和基因工程的风险。

As we journey towards tomorrow, let us be guided by the Maori proverb, "I walk backwards into the future with my eyes fixed on the past." In fact, I invite you all to repeat it out loud after me, in Maori.

在我们迈向未来的征程中，让我们以毛利谚语为指引：“我背对未来前行，双眼却紧盯着过去。”事实上，我诚邀各位跟随我，用毛利语大声重复这句话。来吧，尽你们所能，声音洪亮地一起说。

So here we go, as loud as you can.

所以，让我们一起，尽可能大声地喊出来。

Me first.

我先。

Kia whakatōmuri ... Audience: Kia whakatōmuri ... Roman Krznaric: ... te haere whakamua.

我先行。后顾... 观众：后顾... 罗曼·克兹纳里克：... 前瞻。

Audience: ... te haere whakamua.

观众：...展望未来。

RK: Absolutely brilliant, thank you all so much.

RK: 太棒了，非常感谢大家。

来源：英语东