《海洋预报》| 我国近海海域海上搜救事故特征分析以及搜救事故易发区风险评估

摘要：基于“国家海上搜救环境保障服务平台”和中国海上搜救中心公开发布的海上事故统计数据，详尽分析了中国近海海域海上交通事故的时空分布特征以及事故类型，绘制海上交通事故热点图，依据分析结果建立事故易发区风险评估模型，按照海事局责任管辖区提供各区搜救事故易发的风险评估结

我国近海海域海上搜救事故特征分析以及搜救事故易发区风险评估

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读书小笔记

作者：徐江玲刘桂艳刘爱超李杰李轶斐

单位：

自然资源部北海预报减灾中心, 山东青岛 266100

分类号：U676.8

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第三期（123-133）

摘要：基于“国家海上搜救环境保障服务平台”和中国海上搜救中心公开发布的海上事故统计数据，详尽分析了中国近海海域海上交通事故的时空分布特征以及事故类型，绘制海上交通事故热点图，依据分析结果建立事故易发区风险评估模型，按照海事局责任管辖区提供各区搜救事故易发的风险评估结果。结果表明：中国近海大部分海上事故都发生在浅水区，深水区发生的概率较小；港口群集、航道密布和通航船只频繁的区域为事故多发区；险情发生频次最高的3个区域是广东近海、浙江近海和上海近海海域。从不同海区发生险情时的预测服务需求来看，东海区搜救事故提供的服务次数最多，其次为南海区和北海区；北海区提供的秋季服务次数最多，东海区冬季服务次数最多，南海区夏季服务次数最多。依据建立的事故易发区风险评估模型对我国近海海域进行风险评估，广东近海海域、浙江近海海域为高风险区，上海近海海域、辽宁近海海域和山东近海海域为中风险区，其他海域为低风险区。

关键词：搜救事故易发区时空分布事故类型能见度

Abstract：Based on the statistical data of maritime accidents publicly released by the "National Maritime Search and Rescue Environmental Protection Service Platform" and the China Search and Rescue Center, a detailed analysis was conducted on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and types of maritime traffic accidents.A hot spot map of maritime traffic accidents was drawn, and a risk assessment model for accident prone areas was established based on the analysis results. Based on the jurisdiction of the Maritime Safety Administration, the risk assessment results of search and rescue accidents in each area were provided. The results show that most maritime accidents in China’s offshore areas occur in shallow water areas, while the probability of maritime accidents in deep water areas is relative small. Areas with frequent occurrences of accidents include port clusters,dense waterways, and navigable vessels. The three areas with the highest frequency of dangerous situations are the waters under the jurisdiction of Guangdong Maritime Bureau, Zhejiang Maritime Bureau, and Shanghai Maritime Bureau. From the perspective of the demand for predictive services when dangerous situations occur in different sea areas, the East China Sea region has the highest number of search and rescue accident services,followed by the South China Sea and North China Sea regions. Beihai District has the highest number of services in autumn, Donghai District has the highest number of services in winter, and Nanhai District has the highest number of services in summer. Based on the established risk assessment model for accident prone areas, risk assessments were conducted on the waters under the jurisdiction of various maritime bureaus. The waters of Guangdong Maritime Bureau and Zhejiang Maritime Bureau are high-risk areas, the waters of Shanghai Maritime Bureau, Liaoning Maritime Bureau, and Shandong Maritime Bureau are medium risk areas, and other waters are low risk areas.

Key words：search and rescue; accident prone areas; temporal and spatial distribution;type of accident; visibility