摘要：近日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院院长王文、香港大学当代中国与世界研究中心创始主任李成受邀做客CGTN《论见中国》（Talking China）栏目进行对话。英籍资深时政编辑John Goodrich、CGTN社交媒体专家李菁菁担任对话主持人。现将第一期节目对话
John Goodrich：大家好，欢迎来到《论见中国》。在本节目中，我们将与那些具有独特视角和深厚学识的人士对话，共同探讨当今中国的重要议题。两会期间，经济议题一直是核心焦点，涵盖了GDP目标、就业问题，以及人工智能在未来几年推动经济发展的方式等各个方面。
今天我们将对话来自中国人民大学重阳金融研究院的王文教授，以及香港大学当代中国与世界研究中心创始主任李成教授。CGTN记者兼社交媒体明星李菁菁，她本周一直在参加两会。接下来，让我们与两位教授进入对话的第一个话题，中国的增长目标是否现实？
政府工作报告明确指出，中国决心在未来一年保持强劲增长，国内GDP目标设定在5%左右，通胀目标为2%，并计划创造1200万个新的城镇就业岗位。然而，外界对中国能否继续保持如此强劲的经济增速表示质疑。例如，《经济学人》称中国实现了官方的增长目标，但并非所有人都相信数据反映了去年的经济增长情况。那么，中国2025年的增长目标有多雄心勃勃呢？
李成：没错，确实如此。首先，我们来看看去年（的数据）。中国的增长率实际上高于其他主要经济体，即美国、日本和德国。中国5%的增长率非常令人瞩目。但更重要的是，如果我们回顾过去几十年甚至更长时间，我认为国内外专家通常倾向于低估而非高估中国的年增长率。
这也与最近的举措有关。有时，中国政府并不追求非常高的增长率，因为这并非中国或中国政府的利益所在。由于结构性变化，高速增长时期已经结束，但这也是有意为之，因为中国政府更关注可持续增长，以及经济增长与环境保护或绿色发展之间的平衡。
我对比了去年和今年的两会。我认为今年的两会，和去年相比，中国的形势好多了，整体氛围也很好。因为去年，有一些西方论调宣扬中国经济巅峰已过，存在各种经济问题，诸如此类的负面言论。但仍有一些学者，虽然人数不多，他们依然对中国保持信心。所以现在看来，他们是对的。他们的预测更正确。因此，我认为更重要的是中国的一些基础面工作，着重于数字经济、新能源和软基建——即社会福利、退休保障以及此类投资。
此外，创新也极其重要。我举一个例子吧。自从几年前我从美国搬到香港以来，我去了很多城市，比如成都、合肥、贵州。与硅谷相似的城市还有很多，不仅仅是上海、深圳和北京。这是一个非常重要的现象。
例如，我刚从珠海拿到的这副眼镜，它是3D打印的。我只是去了那家店，他们说：“我们会为你制作”，几个小时后，我就拿到了这副3D打印的眼镜。这说明3D打印技术已经得到了广泛应用。我记得当我在华盛顿特区或纽约时，我从未见过这样的商店。这说明创新真的已经广泛传播开来，而且中国政府对技术的重视，特别是在DeepSeek之后，确实可以改变公众舆论。人们的信心也在增强。
王文：众所周知，2025年两会政府工作报告指出，中国今年的GDP增长目标约为5%，这已经是连续第三年将GDP增长目标设定在5%左右。应当说，这一目标颇具挑战性。这是全球主要经济体中最高的增长目标之一，远高于美国、其他G7国家以及绝大多数新兴经济体。中国提出5%的GDP增长目标，是对世界做出的巨大贡献。
过去几十年间，我们都知道中国对全球经济增长的贡献率一直保持在30%左右。如果今年中国GDP还能保持5%左右的增长，那就意味着中国对世界经济增长的贡献率将超过35%，甚至更高，达到40%。要实现这一目标，中国无疑面临着诸多压力，但我认为这些压力是可以克服的。
中国今年经济刺激政策的力度也是前所未有的。众所周知，这是一项非常重要的数据：中国首次将2025年赤字率拟按4%左右安排，而此前为3%。与此同时，中国还采取了许多务实的政策来刺激消费。这意味着，一方面，财政投资创造了更多的供给，另一方面，刺激消费增加了需求。因此，经济增长的两端都在协同发力，这就是为什么我认为到2025年，中国约5%的经济增长目标是可以实现的原因。
必须指出，当前中国经济增长面临的压力主要来自外部因素。或许李教授会提到这一点。因为美国对中国发起贸易战和科技战，这无疑会带来压力。但我认为，中国有信心和经验来化解这种压力。是的，这就是我的观点。
John Goodrich：谢谢。王教授，我能问您一个问题吗？您提到了外部因素。去年中国经济的增长在很大程度上得益于强劲的出口水平。那么，这些外部因素会在未来一年影响经济增长吗？
王文：因为我们都知道，在过去一个月里，特朗普总统再次发起了贸易战，并两次加征了10%的关税。我认为这给中国的对外贸易带来了巨大的压力。但即便如此，正如李成教授刚才提到的，目前中国国内的创新发展正在迅速推进，国内消费能够创造越来越多的需求，并支持经济的可持续增长。我认为这也反映了社会信心的恢复。
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John Goodrich：Hello and welcome to Talking China, the show where we talk to people with unique perspectives and in-depth knowledge about the matters that are important to China today.At the Two Sessions, the economy has been center stage, from GDP targets and employment to the way that AI can boost the economy in the years to come.Today we’re going to talking to Professor Wang Wen from the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and Professor Li Cheng, the founding director of the Contemporary China and the World Center at Hong Kong University.And CGTN’s very own Li Jingjing, reporter and social media star, who's been at the Two Sessions this week. Let’s move on to topic one in our debate with the two professors.Topic one is: Are China's growth targets realistic? The government work report left no doubt that China is determined to maintain strong growth over the coming year with a GDP target of around 5%, a 2% inflation target, and a goal to create 12 million new urban jobs.However, there are questions from outside China about China’s capacity to continue growing its economy at such a strong rate. For example, The Economist says China meets its official growth target, but not everyone is convinced that it's reflecting on last year’s economic growth. How ambitious are China’s growth targets for 2025?Li Cheng：Yeah, absolutely. First, let’s look at last year. The growth rate was actually higher than other top economies, namely the United States, Japan, and Germany.China’s 5 percent was very impressive.But more importantly, if we look at the past couple of decades or even longer, I think experts, both domestic and foreign, usually tend to underestimate rather than overestimate China's annual growth rate.Now, this is also related to the recent move.Sometimes, the Chinese government, it’s not their interest or China’s interest to have a very high growth rate.That period is over because of the structural changes, but it's also intentional because the Chinese government is more interested in sustainable growth and the balance act between economic growth and environmental protection or green development.I compare with last year and this year.I think the Two Sessions, China is much better shaped, is in a very good mood compared with last year.Because last year, there were some Western narratives talking about China having passed the peak, all these Chinese economic problems, and all these negative things.But some scholars still maintained, the small number, maintained confidence about China.So now, they are right.Their prediction is more on the right side rather than the other way.So, I think that, also, more importantly, some of the basic things in China emphasize the E-economy, new energy, and the soft infrastructure—meaning social welfare, retirement, and this kind of investment.Also, innovation is extremely important.Just give you one example.There are so many cities since I moved to Hong Kong from the US a couple of years ago, I’ve visited a lot of cities, like Chengdu, Hefei, and even Guizhou.There are so many cities similar to Silicon Valley, not just Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing.That’s a very important phenomenon.For example, my glass, the one I just got from Zhuhai, it’s a 3D printing.I just went to the store, and they said, ‘I will produce it for you,’ and a couple of hours later, I got the 3D printing for me.That tells you that is widely spread.I recall that when I was in Washington, D.C., or in New York, I never saw such a store.This tells you that innovation is really widely spread, and the Chinese government’s emphasis on technology, particularly in the wake of DeepSeek, can really change the public opinion.And confidence is on the rise.Wang Wen：Well, as we all know, the government work report of the two sessions in 2025 has said China GDP grooves target for this year around 5%, which is already the third consecutive year that the GDP grooves target has been set at around 5%.It should be said that this goal is quite challenging.This is one of the highest growth targets among major economies worldwide, far higher than the United States, other G7 countries, and the vast majority of emerging economies.China’s proposal of a 5% GDP growth target is a huge contribution to the world.Over the past decades, we all know China’s contribution to global economic growth has consistently remained around 30%.If China’s GDP can still grow by about 5% this year, it will mean that China’s contribution to the world economic growth will exceed 35% or even higher, 40%.To achieve this goal, China is certainly facing a lot of pressure, but I think these pressures can be overcome.The intensity of China’s economic stimulus policies this year is also unprecedented.As we all know, this is very important data: China has raised its fiscal deficit ratio to 4% for the first time, instead of previous 3%.At the same time, China has also adopted many pragmatic policies to stimulate consumption.So, that means, on the one hand, fiscal investment creates more supply, and on the other hand, stimulating consumption increases demand.So both ends of the economic growth are working together, and that’s why I believe that China’s economic growth target of around 5% can be achieved by 2025.It must be said that the current pressure on China’s economic growth mainly comes from external factors.Maybe Professor Li will mention it. Cause the United States launching a trade war and technology war against China will definitely create pressure.But China, I think, has confidence and experience to resolve this pressure.Yeah, that’s my opinion.John Goodrich：Thank you. Professor Wang, could I just ask you one quick question?You mentioned external forces. A lot of China’s economic growth last year was boosted by strong levels of exports. Are those external forces going to affect that in the year ahead?Wang Wen：Because we all know that in the past one month, President Trump launched a trade war again and added a tariff rate of 10% twice.So I think it gave much huge pressure to China’s foreign trade.But even that, as Professor Li Cheng right now mentioned that, now domestically China’s innovation development is moving very quickly, and domestic consumption can create more and more demand and support the sustainable economic growth.I think it’s also reflecting the recovering social confidence.重要！重要！重要！
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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