摘要：首先，市场的实质主体是人，人的行为是决定市场是短期还是长期的关键变量。而人的寿命都是有限的，这客观决定了人的行为必然多具有短期性，而这种短期性必然也使市场具有了短期性。一般情况是，一个人从出生到死亡，前十几年，过家庭生活，后十几年或几十年，过退休老年生活，平均

市场本质是短期的

宋 圭 武

市场更具长期性，还是更具短期性，笔者认为，从本质看，市场更具短期特征，而不是长期特征，要坚决克服市场浪漫主义。

首先，市场的实质主体是人，人的行为是决定市场是短期还是长期的关键变量。而人的寿命都是有限的，这客观决定了人的行为必然多具有短期性，而这种短期性必然也使市场具有了短期性。一般情况是，一个人从出生到死亡，前十几年，过家庭生活，后十几年或几十年，过退休老年生活，平均一般一个人大约有40年左右的时间属于市场。所以，一般一个人多可能立足40年左右时间来安排自己的市场行为，当然，也可能还有比40年时间更长期的安排，但一般不会超过本人的生命周期。由于每个人的行为多具有短期特征，最终，众人短期行为的合力，必然仍然具有短期特征。

其次，信息不对称，也是加剧市场短期性的一个重要变量。不管是生产，还是消费，市场中总是存在大量的信息不对称。这种大量的信息不对称，为投机者提供了短期牟利的巨大空间。而投机者的短期性操作，必然会进一步加剧市场的短期性。

再次，制度的不完善，也是加剧市场短期性的一个重要变量。世界上不存在十分完善和严密的制度。即使很完善严密的制度，也存在机会主义发挥作用的空间。有机会主义，必然就有短期性。

第四，在公共资源和公共产品领域，市场的短期性更突出。

第五，从市场演化的实践趋势看，若市场本质是长期的，则从长期看，市场的波动必然会越来越少，市场的运行质量必然会越来越高，但事实并不如此。在市场运行的长期实践中，市场总是处于不断的波动中，且大波动和小波动都是不断产生，而且市场的运行质量也并非总是在提高。

由此，我们可以认为，市场本质是短期的。任何关于市场的理论，都应从短期性出发来建构理论模型，否则，所建构的理论模型必然是理想主义的，甚至于是空想主义的，最终是没有任何实用价值的，而且还可能会对实践产生误导作用，甚至于产生大害。

如何有效克服市场的短期性，第一，需要着力文化的长期性建设。所谓文化的长期性，即文化所体现的价值观，应更注重未来的价值，尤其是应更注重人死后的价值追求，而不是把现世的价值看得高于一切。世俗主义和机会主义浓烈的文化，注定是高度短期性的。第二，要着力完善制度。一是要着力制度的公开性建设。有关市场的制度，应尽可能体现公开性。公开性是应对信息不对称问题的有效途径。二是制度要对追求长期价值的行为给予更多的激励，同时，对过于短期不当牟利的行为，要给予长期的处罚。比如，一些极恶的商业行为，处罚可以延伸到这些人的后代身上，即所谓父债子还，这会大大约束一些人的短期性行为。第三，要把适合市场的产业交给市场，不适合市场的产业就不能交给市场。比如，自行车、衣服等产业，是可以交给市场充分竞争的。这里凡是群众能容易快速识别产品质量的产业，大都可以交给市场，因为群众能快速识别其产品质量，这会大大抑制市场的短期性行为。但对于教育、医疗等，能否全面市场化，需要高度谨慎，因为这些行业信息不对称十分严重，产品质量不容易快速识别，尤其婴幼儿教育，更不能完全市场化。再比如，农业，也不能完全交给市场。农业本质是一个维持社会基本生存的底线产业，尤其涉及粮食安全，同时，农业又是一个市场弱势产业，所以，农业客观需要把市场和计划有机结合起来较好，若完全交给市场，底线安全就面临极大隐患，但完全把农业计划管死，也不好，不利于调动积极性。这里需要注意的是，市场有市场的弊端，计划有计划的弊端，产业发展，是更多选择市场，还是更多选择计划，需要综合利弊分析，最终应是，两害相权取其轻，两利相权取其大，较好。一些人过于放大市场的弊端，一些人过于放大计划的弊端，都不好。发展需要辩证法，需要全面看，发展是一个逐步完善的过程。（作者：兰州城市学院特聘教授，原中共甘肃省委党校（甘肃行政学院）二级教授）

The essence of the market is short-term.

Song Guiwu

Whether the market is more long-term or short-term in nature? The author believes that, essentially, the market is more characterized by short-termism rather than long-termism. We must resolutely overcome market romanticism.

Firstly, the essential subject of the market is human beings. Human behavior is the key variable that determines whether the market is short-term or long-term. However, human life is limited, which objectively determines that human behavior is mostly short-term. This short-termism inevitably makes the market short-term as well. Generally, from birth to death, a person spends the first dozen or so years in family life and the last dozen or several decades in retirement and old age. On average, a person has about 40 years in the market. Therefore, a person is likely to arrange their market behavior based on about 40 years. Of course, there may be longer-term arrangements, but they generally do not exceed the person's life cycle. Since everyone's behavior is mostly short-term, the combined effect of everyone's short-term behavior will still be short-term.

Secondly, information asymmetry is also an important variable that intensifies the short-term nature of the market. Whether in production or consumption, there is always a large amount of information asymmetry in the market. This large amount of information asymmetry provides a huge space for speculators to make short-term profits. And the short-term operations of speculators will further intensify the short-term nature of the market.

Thirdly, the imperfection of the system is also an important variable that intensifies the short-term nature of the market. There is no perfect and strict system in the world. Even a very perfect and strict system still has room for opportunism to play a role. Where there is opportunism, there must be short-termism.

Fourthly, in the field of public resources and public goods, the short-term nature of the market is more prominent.

Fifthly, from the practical trend of market evolution, if the essence of the market is long-term, then in the long run, market fluctuations will inevitably become fewer and fewer, and the quality of market operation will inevitably become higher and higher. However, this is not the case. In the long-term practice of market operation, the market is always in a state of constant fluctuation, and both large and small fluctuations are constantly occurring. Moreover, the quality of market operation is not always improving.

Therefore, we can conclude that the essence of the market is short-term. Any theory about the market should start from short-termism to construct theoretical models. Otherwise, the constructed theoretical models will be idealistic, or even utopian, and ultimately have no practical value. Moreover, they may mislead practice and even cause great harm.

How to effectively overcome the short-term nature of the market? First, we need to focus on the construction of long-term culture. By long-term culture, it means that the values reflected in the culture should pay more attention to future values, especially the value pursuit after death, rather than regarding the present value as the highest. A culture with a strong sense of secularism and opportunism is bound to be highly short-term.

Second, we need to focus on improving the system. First, we need to focus on the construction of the openness of the system. The system related to the market should reflect openness as much as possible. Openness is an effective way to deal with information asymmetry. Second, the system should provide more incentives for behaviors that pursue long-term value, while imposing long-term penalties on overly short-term and improper profit-making behaviors. For example, for extremely evil business behaviors, the penalties can be extended to the descendants of these people, that is, the so-called "father's debt, son's repayment". This will greatly restrain some people's short-term behaviors.

Third, industries suitable for the market should be left to the market, while industries not suitable for the market should not be left to the market. For example, industries such as bicycles and clothing can be left to the market for full competition. Generally, industries where the quality of products can be easily and quickly identified by the masses can be left to the market, because the masses can quickly identify the quality of their products, which will greatly restrain the short-term behaviors of the market. However, for sectors such as education and healthcare, it is necessary to be highly cautious about full marketization. This is because information asymmetry is extremely severe in these industries, and the quality of products is not easy to identify quickly. Especially for infant and toddler education, it cannot be fully marketized. Another example is agriculture, which cannot be entirely left to the market. Agriculture is essentially a bottom-line industry that maintains basic social survival, especially when it comes to food security. At the same time, agriculture is a market-weak industry. Therefore, it is better to organically combine the market and planning in agriculture. If it is completely left to the market, there will be a great risk to the bottom-line security. However, if agriculture is completely controlled by planning, it is also not good as it is not conducive to mobilizing enthusiasm. It should be noted that the market has its drawbacks, and planning also has its drawbacks. When it comes to industrial development, whether to choose the market more or planning more, a comprehensive analysis of the pros and cons is needed. Ultimately, it should be a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils and the greater of two benefits. Some people overly exaggerate the drawbacks of the market, while others overly exaggerate the drawbacks of planning. Neither is good. Development requires dialectics and a comprehensive view. Development is a gradual process of improvement. (Author: Distinguished Professor of Lanzhou City University, former Second-Class Professor of the Gansu Provincial Party School (Gansu Administration College) of the Communist Party of China)

来源：宋圭武