摘要：China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will focus on a strategic shift from a manufacturing-oriented economy to one emphasizing h

By Yasiru Ranaraja

Lead: China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will mark a strategic pivot from manufacturing pre-eminence to innovation-driven development, emphasizing technological self-reliance and environmental sustainability amid mounting global uncertainties.

China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) will focus on a strategic shift from a manufacturing-oriented economy to one emphasizing high-quality, innovation-driven growth, with priorities on technological advancement, sustainability and economic resilience, according to the recommendations for formulating the plan adopted at the recently-concluded fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.

China's economy has delivered solid results over the past five years, averaging 5.5% annual GDP growth in the first four years and surpassing predictions from various international monetary organizations.

The country's GDP rose from 117.4 trillion yuan ($16.54 trillion) in 2021 to 123.4 trillion yuan in 2022 and is forecast to approach 140 trillion yuan in 2025. That would represent cumulative growth of roughly $3.18 trillion, more than the entire GDP of countries like Brazil or Italy. This progress has also contributed significantly to regional and global development, with China accounting for about 30% of global GDP growth annually, reinforcing its position as the world's largest engine of economic growth.

In the years ahead, innovation will remain central to China's strategy. In 2024, the country’s R&D spending exceeded $500 billion, creating the world's largest pool of researchers. The number of registered private companies has surpassed 58 million, representing an increase of almost 40% from five years ago. These enterprises are playing an increasingly crucial role in China's economy, while rising household incomes and advancing technologies continue to expand the market. As of November 2024, enterprises held 73.5% of valid invention patents in China, an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to the same period of the previous year, with a considerable number of patents coming from small and medium-sized enterprises.

The K-visa program and related policy measures aim to attract global talent and integrate it into China's domestic innovation system, strengthening the country's ability to develop cutting-edge technologies. China has maintained its manufacturing leadership for 15 years, outpacing rivals in more than 200 major industry categories. The country is now increasingly shifting its focus to the service sector, where technological progress and consumption-driven growth will complement its industrial strength.

Principal targets for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will focus on major gains in high-quality development, substantial improvement in scientific and technological self-reliance, and economic growth through comprehensive reform.

The plan will also emphasize cultural and moral progress through significant improvement of the level of social civilization, treating it as one of the strategic priorities, just like high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and the construction of a beautiful China.

As we look beyond 2030 to the nation's 2035 vision, we are confident China's economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, and overall national power and global influence will reach new heights. The leadership envisions per capita GDP approaching that of a moderately developed country by 2035, basically achieving socialist modernization, a phrase repeatedly emphasized in Chinese strategic planning documents.

Environmental sustainability is a defining priority. For instance, the plan is expected to further advance the Beautiful China Initiative, targeting cleaner air, water and environmental ecosystems, while also strengthening the national security system. Between 2020 and 2024, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 11.6%, the result of improved efficiency. Renewable resources now provide approximately one-third of the country's electricity production.

These actions demonstrate China's commitment to its green development agenda and global leadership in energy transition standards.

China has made other quantifiable achievements in environmental development in recent years. Clean energy production from hydropower, nuclear, wind and solar sources totaled 3,190.6 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023, up 7.8% from the previous year.

China's policy objectives for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) target a 13.5% reduction in energy intensity and an 18% decrease in carbon dioxide intensity by the end of this year compared to 2020 levels.

Looking ahead, China has set targets for 2030 to increase non-fossil fuels, including renewable energy, nuclear and hydropower, to around 25% of primary energy consumption, and to expand wind and solar installed capacity to more than 1,200 gigawatts.

These are included in a national strategy to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, aligning with global targets in the Paris Agreement and calling for commitment from other parties.

The recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan also reflect China's broader global aspirations and its role in regional economic development. China's unique approach of combining market-driven reform with guided state support aims to bolster domestic supply chains, cultivate technological independence and deepen regional economic integration, while providing a model for innovation-led development globally. However, there will also be challenges. Drawing high-end foreign talent, regulating openness and reform, and absorbing foreign technology and investment will be crucial to sustaining momentum.

Ultimately, the success of the 15th Five-Year Plan will rest on China's ability to translate policy blueprints, market reforms and investment in innovation into tangible, interconnected economic outcomes by balancing state leadership with market forces to sustain long-term global economic growth. Yet China faces enormous challenges amid mounting global uncertainties.

The imposition of tariffs and trade barriers by the U.S. has disrupted global supply chains and hindered economic growth to the detriment of developing economies. The Ukraine crisis has also contributed to world economic instability, leading to increased energy costs and food shortages that depress economic confidence and growth potential worldwide. In addition, escalating tensions in the Middle East have led to more volatility in energy markets and increased inflationary pressures across the globe.

These complexities have created an unprecedented situation where China must address not just domestic agendas but also international political considerations and global market forces.

However, ever since the start of the first five-year plan in 1953, such guidelines have been an important institutional arrangement leading China's economic and social development. China has made remarkable achievements through the 14 five-year plans for national economic and social development. Its ethos as showcased in formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan should convince us that China will, most probably, realize the major goals and bring about new growth and progress to itself and the world at large.

Yasiru Ranaraja is a commentator on current affairs, a researcher on maritime issues and an expert on Belt and Road Initiative development. He is the founding director of BRISL, an international development organization in Sri Lanka.

来源：中国网一点号