摘要：一年一度的诺贝尔奖将在下周揭晓，其中奖生理学或医学奖将于10月6日公布，物理学奖于10月7日宣布，化学奖于10月8日发布；文学奖与和平奖则分别于10月9日和10日揭晓。

诺贝尔奖奖章

一年一度的诺贝尔奖将在下周揭晓，其中奖生理学或医学奖将于10月6日公布，物理学奖于10月7日宣布，化学奖于10月8日发布；文学奖与和平奖则分别于10月9日和10日揭晓。

这些奖项是对科学成就巅峰的认可，但预测获奖者在很大程度上只是猜测。根据诺贝尔奖规则，候选名单与提名者信息始终保密，而披露该奖项评选过程细节的文件需封存50年，不对外公开。

不过今年的诺贝尔奖有点特殊，美国总统特朗普不仅高调宣称他已成功结束了全球7场战争，早该获得诺贝尔和平奖，并向挪威首相和外长打电话，以谈关税为由索要该奖，还真有一些国家宣称已向诺贝尔和平奖评审委员会提名特朗普。

除了由挪威诺贝尔委员会评选的和平奖外，诺贝尔物理学奖和化学奖由瑞典皇家科学院评定，生理学或医学奖由瑞典皇家卡罗林医学院评定，评奖委员会可选择的优秀科学进展项目十分丰富。以下是专家们认为具备获得诺贝尔奖的五项具有变革性意义的科学突破与发现，您觉得哪些能获奖。

彻底改变了成人糖尿病与肥胖症的治疗方式的胰高血糖素样肽-1（GLP-1）类药物

一、突破性的肥胖治疗方案

一类可模拟“胰高血糖素样肽-1”（GLP-1）激素的重磅2型糖尿病治疗与减重药物的研发，颠覆了医疗健康领域。

全球每8人中就有1人患有肥胖症，这一数字自1990年以来已增长超一倍，而这类兼具降血糖与抑制食欲功效的药物，有望为肥胖症及2型糖尿病等相关疾病的治疗开启新纪元。

参与“司美格鲁肽”研发的三位科学家斯韦特兰娜·莫伊索夫、乔尔·哈本纳博士与洛特·比耶勒·克努森荣获了2024年拉斯克-德贝基临床医学研究奖。该奖项常被视为判断某项突破或某位科学家是否能获诺贝尔奖的“风向标”。

莫伊索夫是洛克菲勒大学的生物化学家兼副研究教授，哈本纳是哈佛医学院的内分泌学家兼医学教授，二人助力完成了GLP-1的识别与合成。克努森则是诺和诺德公司研究与早期开发部门的首席科学顾问，她在将GLP-1转化为如今数百万人使用的有效减重药物过程中，发挥了关键作用。

今年4月，这三位科学家还与多伦多大学的内分泌学家兼教授丹尼尔·德鲁克博士、哥本哈根大学的丹麦籍医师延斯·尤尔·霍尔斯特博士共同荣获了生命科学领域的奖项“突破奖”。该奖项由元宇宙创始人马克·扎克伯格和他的华裔妻子普莉希拉·陈等人联合创立。

量子计算先驱德国亚琛工业大学量子信息研究所教授戴维·P·迪文森佐

二、量子计算先驱

科睿唯安科学信息研究所研究分析负责人戴维·彭德尔伯里表示，量子计算作为一个新兴领域，已具备获得诺贝尔奖认可的成熟条件。

彭德尔伯里通过分析多年来同行科学家对某学者核心科学论文的引用频率，来筛选出“具备诺贝尔奖资格”的人选。

今年，他认为两位物理学家的研究成果值得关注，二人均致力于“量子比特”的研究。一位是德国亚琛工业大学量子信息研究所教授戴维·P·迪文森佐，另一位是瑞士巴塞尔大学理论物理学教授丹尼尔·洛斯。

彭德尔伯里在提及1998年发表于《物理评论A》期刊的一项研究时表示：“当然，人们对量子计算抱有很高的期待，或许也存在不少炒作。但当我回溯这些被高度引用的论文时发现，迪文森佐与洛斯的这篇论文被引用了近1万次，这是一个天文数字。他们的核心洞见在于，将量子比特作为制造量子计算机的基础机制。”

该领域的其他先驱还包括英国牛津大学量子计算中心物理学访问教授戴维·多伊奇，他曾与人共同荣获2023年突破奖基础物理学奖项。

实现囊性纤维化治疗方案突破的细胞生物学家保罗·内古列斯库博士

三、囊性纤维化治疗方案的突破

两年前，“许愿基金会”宣布，遗传性疾病“囊性纤维化”不再自动成为该基金会帮扶的“致命疾病患儿”的合格病种。该疾病会导致体内黏液分泌过多，进而困住感染源并堵塞肺部气道。这在很大程度上要归功于三位科学家率先推动的囊性纤维化治疗突破性进展。

爱荷华大学内科学（肺部、重症监护与职业医学方向）教授迈克尔·J·韦尔什博士，揭示了导致这种致命遗传性疾病的核心蛋白质的运作机制，以及患者体内该蛋白质会出现哪些功能异常。

这一发现为另外两位研究者找到“修正功能异常蛋白质”的方法奠定了基础，最终研发出一种复方药物，将囊性纤维化转变为可控制的疾病。据拉斯克基金会声明，曾任职于福泰制药的物理有机化学家赫苏斯（蒂托）·冈萨雷斯开创了一种用于筛选潜在有效化合物的系统；而现任职于福泰制药的细胞生物学家保罗·内古列斯库则主导并推动了这项研究。今年9月，这三位科学家共同荣获了2025年拉斯克-德贝基临床医学研究奖。

在肠道微生物组认知方面获得突破的生物学家杰弗里·戈登博士与其女助手合影

四、肠道微生物组的认知突破

人体表面及体内生存着数万亿个微生物（包括细菌、病毒与真菌），它们共同被称为“人体微生物组”。

过去20年间，随着基因测序技术的进步，科学家得以更深入地了解这些微生物的功能，以及它们之间如何“交流”、如何与人体细胞（尤其是肠道细胞）相互作用。

彭德尔伯里表示，这一领域也是“早该获得诺贝尔奖认可”的领域之一。

圣路易斯华盛顿大学罗伯特·J·格拉泽博士杰出大学教授、生物学家杰弗里·戈登博士是该领域的先驱。

戈登从小鼠实验室研究起步，致力于探索人体肠道微生物组及其对人类健康的影响。他带领团队发现，肠道微生物组会影响营养不良对健康的作用。全球约有2亿儿童受营养不良困扰；目前他正研发以“改善肠道健康”为目标的食品干预方案。

基因测序化学家（左起）巴拉苏布拉马尼亚姆、克莱纳曼与生物物理学家迈耶获第九届突破奖

五、下一代DNA测序技术

“人类基因组图谱绘制”是常被提及的诺贝尔奖候选成果之一。这一宏大项目始于1990年，于2003年完成，由美国、英国、法国、德国、日本与中国的数千名研究人员组成国际联盟，共同破解了人类生命的遗传密码。

该项目对生物学、医学及众多其他领域产生了深远影响，但它未能获诺贝尔奖的原因之一，或许是参与这一成就的人数过多。根据诺贝尔1895年遗嘱中设定的规则，每个诺贝尔奖最多只能表彰3人，而如今许多科学研究具有高度协作性，这一规则带来的挑战日益凸显。

彭德尔伯里表示，同理，诺贝尔奖委员会或许会认可三位学者的成果：英国剑桥大学的化学家尚卡尔·巴拉苏布拉马尼亚姆与戴维·克莱纳曼，以及法国斯特拉斯堡大学的生物物理学家帕斯卡尔·迈耶。他们研发的“下一代测序技术”可一次性解码数百万个DNA片段。

在他们的发明问世前，完成整个人类基因组测序需要数月时间，成本高达数百万美元；如今，这一过程可在一天内完成，成本仅需数百美元。

彭德尔伯里指出，这项成果改变了医学、生物学、生态学与法医学等多个领域，使医生能更轻松地了解疾病的遗传根源，进而推动个性化医疗及其他治疗方案的发展。

5 Nobel-worthy scientific advances that haven’t won the prize. By Katie Hunt on CNN. October 5, 2025.

It’s the time of year when leading scientists might not want to let any calls go to voicemail.

Prizes in chemistry, physics, and physiology or medicine, established by Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel more than a century ago, will be announced next week, along withprizes in peace and literature.

The awards are a pinnacle of scientific achievement. But predicting who will win is largely guesswork.

The short list and nominators remain a secret, and documents revealing the details of the selection process for the accolades are sealed from public view for 50 years.

There is, however, no shortage of worthy scientific advances from which the Nobel Prize committees can pick. Here are five life-changing breakthroughs and discoveries that experts think are Nobel-worthy.

Groundbreaking treatments for obesity

The development of blockbuster type-2 diabetes and weight-loss drugs that mimic a hormone called glucagon-like peptide 1, or GLP-1, has shaken up the world of health care.

One in 8 people in the world live with obesity — a figure that has more than doubled since 1990 — and the medication, which lowers blood sugar and curbs appetite, has the potential to usher in a new era for obesity treatment and related conditions such as type 2 diabetes.

Three scientists — Svetlana Mojsov, Dr. Joel Habener and Lotte Bjerre Knudsen — involved in the development of the drug, known as semaglutide, won the 2024 Lasker-DeBakey Clinical Medical Research Award, often considered an indicator of whether a specific breakthrough or scientist will win a Nobel Prize.

Mojsov, a biochemist and associate research professor at Rockefeller University, and Habener, an endocrinologist and professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, helped identify and synthesize GLP-1. Knudsen, chief scientific adviser in research and early development at Novo Nordisk, played a pivotal role in turning it into an effective drug promoting weight loss that millions of people take today.

The same three scientists, along with Dr. Daniel Drucker, an endocrinologist and professor at the University of Toronto, and Danish physician Dr. Jens Juul Holst, a professor at the University of Copenhagen, were awarded the Breakthrough Prize, founded by Priscilla Chan and Mark Zuckerberg and others, in life sciences in April.

Quantum computing pioneers

Quantum computing is an emerging field that is ripe for some Nobel recognition, according to David Pendlebury, head of research analysis at Clarivate’s Institute for Scientific Information.

Pendlebury identifies “Nobel-worthy” individuals by analyzing how often fellow scientists cite their key scientific papers throughout the years.

This year, he tipped two physicists for their work on quantum bits, or qubits, the basic unit of information used to encode data in quantum computing: David P. DiVincenzo, a professor at the Institute for Quantum Information at RWTH Aachen University in Germany, and Daniel Loss, a professor of theoretical physics at the University of Basel in Switzerland.

“There’s certainly, of course, a lot of anticipation of quantum computing, and probably, for that matter, a lot of hype, but I went back to these extremely highly cited papers, and I think this one by DiVincenzo and Loss was cited almost 10,000 times, an astronomical number,” Pendlebury said, referring to a 1998 study in the journal Physical Review A. “Their insight was to use qubits as the fundamental mechanism of making a quantum computer.”

Other pioneers in the field include David Deutsch, a visiting professor of physics at the Centre for Quantum Computation at the UK’s University of Oxford, who shared the 2023 reakthrough Prize in fundamental physics.

Finding a treatment for cystic fibrosis

Two years ago, the Make-A-Wish Foundation announced that the genetic disorder cystic fibrosis was no longer automatically a qualifying condition for the children with fatal diseases it seeks to help.

That’s largely because of life-changing advances in how the disease is treated that three scientists helped to pioneer. The disease causes an overabundance of mucus, trapping infections and blocking airways in the lungs.

Dr. Michael J. Welsh, a professor of internal medicine-pulmonary, critical care and occupational medicine at the University of Iowa, revealed how the protein that underlies this lethal genetic disease functions and what can go wrong with itin people with the illness.

This discovery allowed two other researchers to find ways to correct the misbehaving protein that culminated in a drug combination that has turned cystic fibrosis into a manageable condition. Jesús (Tito) González, a physicalorganic chemist formerly at Vertex Pharmaceuticals, pioneered a system used to screen for promising compounds, and cell biologist Paul Negulescu, who works at Vertex Pharmaceuticals, led and championed the research, according to a statement from the Lasker Foundation.

The trio won the 2025 Lasker-DeBakey Clinical Medical Research Award in September.

Understanding the gut microbiome

Trillions of microbes — bacteria, viruses and fungi — live on and in the human body, collectively known as the human microbiome.

With advances in genetic sequencing in the past two decades, scientists have been better able to understand what these microbes do and how they talk to one another and interact with human cells, particularly in the gut.

The field is another one long overdue for Nobel recognition, Pendlebury said.

Biologist Dr. Jeffrey Gordon, the Dr. Robert J. Glaser Distinguished University Professor at Washington University in St. Louis, is a pioneer in the field.

Gordon strove to understand the human gut microbiome and how it shapes human health, starting with lab research in mice. He led work that found that the gut microbiome plays a role in the health effects of undernutrition, which affects almost 200 million children globally, and he is developing food interventions that target improved gut health.

Next-generation DNA sequencing

One often discussed candidate for the Nobel Prize is the mapping of the human genome, an audacious project that launched in 1990 and was completed in 2003. Cracking the genetic code of human life involved an international consortium of thousands of researchers in the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan and China.

The endeavor has had a far-reaching impact on biology, medicine and many other fields. But one reason the project may not have earned a Nobel Prize is the sheer number of people involved in the feat. According to the rules laid down by Nobel in his 1895 will, the prizes can only honor up to three people per award — a growing challenge given the collaborative nature of much scientific research.

In the same vein, Pendlebury said it was possible that the Nobel committee might recognize the work of chemists Shankar Balasubramanian and David Klenerman at the University of Cambridge in the UK and French biophysicist Pascal Mayer of the University of Strasbourg for their work on next-generation sequencing technologies that can decode millions of fragments of DNA at once.

Before their inventions, sequencing a full human genome could take months and cost millions of dollars. Today, the process can be completed within a day and for only a few hundred dollars.

This work has transformed many fields, including medicine, biology, ecology and forensics, and means that doctors can understand the genetic underpinning of disease more easily, leading to personalized medicine and other treatments, Pendlebury said.

来源：读行品世事一点号