摘要：Amid the challenges facing globalization and rising protectionism, the 137th Canton Fair, held by the Pearl River, sent a strong m

南方财经全媒体集团首席记者 施诗 广州报道

Amid the challenges facing globalization and rising protectionism, the 137th Canton Fair, held by the Pearl River, sent a strong message of China’s unwavering commitment to opening up to the world.

Zhang Yansheng, Researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, told SFC reporter that in the current global trade environment, the Canton Fair plays a vital role as both a window and bridge, serving as a key platform for global business partners to understand China and foster cooperation.

In light of the uncertainties caused by the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs," Zhang emphasized that China must continue to champion globalization, push for further opening-up, and advance market reforms. He stressed the importance of focusing on high-quality development and leveraging new technologies, like "Internet+" and "AI+," to strengthen the resilience of global supply chains.

Zhang also predicted that regional trade and cooperation would become more active under tariff pressures. From this perspective, crises may present opportunities, and a scenario may emerge where "the East shines while the West dims."

SFC Markets and Finance: Under the Trump administration's “reciprocal tariffs” policy, international trade has undergone significant changes. In this larger context, what is the significance of holding the Canton Fair?

Zhang Yansheng: The most important significance of the Canton Fair is that it serves as a window and a bridge. It is a platform where "global guests" can observe the changes in China's imports and exports in 2025.

During this visit, I saw the robots showcased at the Canton Fair—humanoid robots and service robots. I also saw the “global guests” of the “Canton Fair Welcomes Global Visitors.” These guests expressed a keen interest in China's new products, new business formats, new models, and new platforms in the areas of digitalization, networking, and intelligence. From this perspective, the Canton Fair is especially important in today's uncertain and risky international trade environment. The more challenging it gets, the more we must collaborate with global partners to turn crises into opportunities.

SFC Markets and Finance: As you mentioned, the Canton Fair welcomes global guests. This time, many international buyers have attended, including a significant number from the United States. In this environment, what brings American buyers to the Canton Fair?

Zhang Yansheng: Their main motivation is to see things for themselves. That is, they want to observe firsthand the progress in the trade chain between China and the United States, from the business sector to every link. They are particularly interested in China's digital transformation, green transition, and open economy reforms. By doing so, they can discuss with Chinese and global trade partners how to avoid prohibitive tariffs, protectionism, and geopolitical risks. So, in my view, these American clients are here primarily to see things firsthand and, secondly, to seek collaboration.

SFC Markets and Finance: The imports and exports in the first quarter are showing a growth trend. How do you interpret this trend?

Zhang Yansheng: In the first quarter, exports were relatively strong, but we know that exports are driven by external demand. However, imports showed a significant decline because they are more dependent on domestic demand. Therefore, the foreign trade data for the first quarter reflects the gap between external and internal demand. From this perspective, the data shows an increasing trade surplus, which also raises the likelihood of trade friction. Achieving trade balance, I believe, is a responsible action for major countries. So, in order to boost imports, the most important thing is to stimulate the economy. Only with demand can we drive imports. Therefore, looking at the import and export data, I think greater efforts are needed.

SFC Markets and Finance: Looking at the whole year, is it feasible to achieve the growth target of around 5%?

Zhang Yansheng: The around 5% growth target is relatively optimistic from a domestic efforts perspective. However, foreign conflicts may act as a drag. So, whether the economy can reach 5% for the year largely depends on how much the external trade impact can be mitigated.

We know that the U.S.'s “reciprocal tariffs” have an impact on China—let's estimate around two percentage points. The key is whether any measures can be taken to effectively control this, such as expanding domestic demand comprehensively, accelerating the development of new productive forces, and promoting the strategy of strengthening the country through science and education. These proactive measures could help offset the negative external factors. The question is how much they can make up for, and this remains one of the most uncertain factors for this year.

SFC Markets and Finance: From the first quarter's economic data, we can see that our imports and exports with ASEAN and Europe are both on the rise. Does this mean that regional cooperation or bilateral partnerships will become a key theme going forward?

Zhang Yansheng: I believe there are two different trends coexisting. One is the trend of regionalization, which is quite evident. The integration between ASEAN and China has significantly increased, with ASEAN now being China’s largest trading partner. We can foresee that as the integration between China and ASEAN deepens, ASEAN’s influence on China’s foreign trade, foreign investment, foreign debt, and foreign exchange will continue to grow.

On the other hand, China will continue to champion globalization and push for comprehensive opening-up. From this perspective, China’s trade relations with the EU, BRICS countries, and Japan and South Korea will still play a very important role.

SFC Markets and Finance: Is there space for cooperation between China and ASEAN in terms of the division of labor in the industrial chain?

Zhang Yansheng: The industrial chains of China and ASEAN are entirely complementary. What China excels in, ASEAN is generally weaker in, and what ASEAN excels in, China largely needs. This complementary structure provides a solid foundation for cooperation between the two sides. Moreover, for ASEAN, the China-U.S. trade war has made them feel that China’s influence on ASEAN is greater than that of other external economies. From this perspective, I believe there is a common foundation for cooperation in terms of diplomacy, politics, and across society.

SFC Markets and Finance: Like you mentioned, the 'reciprocal tariffs' have a significant impact on ASEAN. In fact, they affect many countries globally. In this context, will the international trade landscape form a new trend?

Zhang Yansheng: First, for ASEAN, the “reciprocal tariffs” have sent a clear signal that the export-driven outward-oriented economic strategy must be adjusted. Moving forward, a key aspect of China-ASEAN cooperation will be how to jointly expand regional demand. The reason is simple: the greater a country’s reliance on exports, the higher the tariffs it faces. As a result, ASEAN’s previous export-dependent strategy must be revised.

By jointly expanding regional demand, ASEAN and China can develop regional trade, investment, and cooperation in industrial chains, supply chains, and trade chains. From this perspective, a negative situation can be turned into a positive one. This could lead to a scenario where the East shines, while the West does not.

Backing China’s massive economy is crucial for ASEAN's stability and growth. We can see that many ASEAN countries have recognized this, which is why they are not choosing sides in the China-U.S. trade war. They want to continue promoting openness and cooperation with China. For ASEAN, working with China to drive high-quality development and expand domestic demand is an opportunity.

SFC Markets and Finance: What new normal will emerge for global industrial chains and supply chains?

Zhang Yansheng: For global industrial chains and supply chains, I think the next step will be greater regionalization and localization. Cooperation within local supply chains and industrial chains will become tighter. Enhancing the resilience of our industrial and supply chains will be crucial.

My biggest concern is whether it will lead to two parallel industrial supply chain systems between China and the U.S. In this regard, I see it as a tug of war. The key will be whether we can fully leverage “Internet+” and “AI+” to use the power of technology to strengthen the resilience of global supply chains, industrial chains, and trade chains.

From this perspective, I believe we can overcome extreme forces. I remain quite optimistic about the efforts in this area. By harnessing the Fourth Industrial Revolution, we can improve the resilience of our global supply chains and integrated logistics, thereby enabling us to achieve greater benefits.

SFC Markets and Finance: Finally, what advice would you give to foreign trade enterprises?

Zhang Yansheng: My advice to foreign trade enterprises is to maintain focus during this time. The most important thing is to stay calm and not lose composure. Maintaining focus means thinking about how to turn crises into opportunities and how to manage your business effectively.

This includes integrating domestic and foreign trade. In the past, external demand was crucial for us, but with the country's efforts to boost consumption, domestic demand could become just as important for businesses. Therefore, integrating domestic and foreign trade—expanding market share in whichever area is more advantageous—is vital. This approach will help enterprises adapt to the current external uncertainties, which I believe is extremely important.

Chief Producer: Yu Xiaona

Supervising Producer: Shi Shi

Editor: Li Yinong

Reporter: Shi Shi, Li Yinong

Video Editor: Li Qun

New Media Coordination: Ding Qingyun, Zeng Tingfang, Lai Xi, Huang Daxun

Overseas Operations Supervising Producer: Huang Yanshu

Overseas Content Coordinator: Huang Zihao

Overseas Operations Editors: Zhuang Huan, Wu Wanjie, Long Lihua, Zhang Weitao

Produced by: Southern Finance Omnimedia Group

来源：指间联盟商务经理-吴哲