摘要：A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, the United States, April 8, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, the United States, April 8, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
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Within a week after his "Liberation Day," U.S. President Donald Trump announced a complete 90-day pause on the "reciprocal tariffs" on countries that have not "retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States."
But in the meantime, tariffs on China have been increased from 104 percent to 125 percent after the world's second largest economy expressed its firm stance on its retaliatory measures against Washington's economic bullying. Interestingly, shouting harsh words against Beijing, Trump also expressed his willingness for talks with his Chinese counterpart. "We will get a phone call at some point and then it is off to the races," Trump said.
The businessman-turned politician has demonstrated his "unrivalled" skills in playing the "Art of the Deal" in interactions with other countries, and "reciprocal tariffs" are among a slew of leverages in his toolbox to force others into submitting to Washington's unreasonable demands.
"No one creates leverage for himself like President Trump," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, adding "We've been overwhelmed – overwhelmed – by the response, mostly by our allies, who want to come and negotiate in good faith."
True, Trump's "maximum negotiating leverage" may have appeared "effective" in squeezing the most from parties at the table, thus bringing some instant profits to the United States. But the "Art of the Deal" – or in another word, coercion – is raising the curtain for a U.S. recession.
To begin with, the world's fastest growing economy has no reason to back down to U.S. threats. "The Chinese people do not provoke trouble but are not afraid of it either. Pressuring, threatening and extortion are not the right ways to deal with China," the country's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Tuesday.
In its white paper "China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-U.S. Economic and Trade Relations" released on Wednesday, China iterated that "Trade wars produce no winners, and protectionism leads up a blind alley."
In face of U.S. coercion, China's firm stance of fighting till the end means that while nobody wins in a trade war, Washington will lose more from it than Beijing.
Export data explains it all: In 2024, the U.S. occupied 14.7 percent of China's total exports, down from 19.2 percent in 2018. In the meantime, China received a significant portion of U.S. exports last year, including 51.7 percent of soybeans, 29.7 percent of cotton, 17.2 percent of integrated circuits, 10.7 percent of coal, 10 percent of liquefied petroleum gas, 9.4 percent of medical equipment, and 8.3 percent of passenger motor vehicles, according to UN data.
Clearly, the U.S. cannot afford an enduring trade fight with its major export market. If the Trump administration insists on its tariff fights, it is the U.S. – not China that has been diversifying its foreign markets in recent years – that will suffer the most.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, the United States, April 8, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
In addition, even if Trump forced the 75 countries to surrender to U.S. demands with his "Art of the Deal," the back-and-forth tariffs, as the Trump administration boasted as the President's negotiating leverage, have brought uncertainties to investors and thus higher risks of an economic recession.
This is why American firms are backing away from their previous targets of profit growth. Walmart, for instance, has retreated from its initial target for first-quarter profit growth as a result of the concerns over tariffs.
"There has been so much uncertainty – things are evolving by the day – that businesses just don't know what to do or how to plan," Bart Watson, president of the Brewers Association, was quoted by The Washington Post as saying, adding, "Every time things change, it's another straw on a camel's back that already has a lot of straws on it."
As a result of Trump's "unrivalled" bargaining tactics, economists have repeatedly warned of a U.S. recession. Goldman, for instance, forecasts 0.5 percent economic growth in the U.S. this year and sees a 45 percent chance of recession within the next year, despite the 90-day pause.
It is also worth noting that the 10 percent rate is still higher than what existed before April 2. In other words, tariff barriers still exist. In the era of global integration, this, instead of making America great again, will only increase economic pressure on the United States.
Against Trump's allegation of imported goods as the cause of the hollowing out of America's manufacturing sector, cost-efficient foreign products have turned out to be essential in controlling U.S. inflation. After all, these goods, which the U.S. has no capability of producing at the same costs, have tremendously lowered prices for American consumers. Trade barriers against these products means increased risks of inflation.
The Trump administration naively hopes that the "Art of the Deal" could bring them maximized profits. But the reality suggests the opposite. Coercion, pressure and threats will only raise the curtain for a U.S. recession.
来源：中国网一点号
