摘要：几十年来，多项调查均表明中年是人生的低谷。虽然年轻人和老年人普遍报告了较高的生活满意度，但中年人群却陷入了情绪低谷。这种“幸福的U型曲线”或“绝望的高峰”（取决于你的视角）已在多个国家被记录了数百次。最不幸福的具体年龄各有不同——瑞士人最痛苦的年龄是35岁，乌

The middle-aged are no longer the most miserable

中年人不再是最悲惨的

Youth used to be cheerful. No more

年轻人曾是无忧无虑的，但如今已不再如此

几十年来，多项调查均表明中年是人生的低谷。虽然年轻人和老年人普遍报告了较高的生活满意度，但中年人群却陷入了情绪低谷。这种“幸福的U型曲线”或“绝望的高峰”（取决于你的视角）已在多个国家被记录了数百次。最不幸福的具体年龄各有不同——瑞士人最痛苦的年龄是35岁，乌克兰人则是60多岁——但总体模式是一致的。

然而最近，这一曲线似乎发生了扭曲。经济学家大卫·布兰奇弗劳尔、亚历克斯·布赖森和徐晓伟（音译）于8月27日在《PLOS ONE》发表的一项研究发现，如今年轻人报告的不幸福感已超过其他任何年龄群体。“我们发现曲线从‘高峰形’变成了‘滑雪坡形’，”布赖森博士表示。

作者首先在美国行为风险因素监测系统（BRFSS）这一长期开展的调查中发现了这一变化。他们计算了每个年龄段的受访者中，报告过去一个月每天心理健康状况不佳的比例。2009年至2018年间，熟悉的“高峰形”曲线依然存在： 不幸福感在中年达到顶峰 。但2019年至2024年间，这一模式发生了变化。中年和老年人的不幸福水平大致保持稳定，而 年轻人的绝望情绪却有所上升 （见上图）。

英国也呈现出相同的趋势。作者利用英国家庭纵向调查和年度人口调查的数据发现，2016年后，40岁以下人群的焦虑和绝望情绪急剧增加，到2019年时，“高峰形”曲线已消失。在西方英语国家之外，也有一些证据支持这一趋势。作者分析了基于网络的“全球心智项目”调查数据，在非洲、亚洲、欧洲、拉丁和中东的44个国家中，只要有足够数据，年轻人都一致报告了比年长者更差的心理健康状况。

然而，旧的“高峰形”曲线仍有可能再次出现。由于这项新研究只是提供了某一时间点上不同年龄人群不幸福感的简单快照，因此如今20多岁的痛苦年轻人仍可能追随前人的脚步，在中年时变得更加忧郁。“如果年轻人起步如此糟糕，他们到中年时可能会更糟，这并非不可想象，”布赖森博士表示。

跟踪同一人群随时间变化的幸福感纵向研究可以揭示这种长期发展趋势，但此类研究很少。现有的少数纵向研究也确实发现了“高峰形”曲线，即不幸福感在中年达到顶峰。这让人不得不相信，Z世代可能会变得更加悲伤。

队列数据也支持“高峰形”曲线可能继续存在的观点。《经济学人》按世代划分了BRFSS的数据（见下图），发现每个队列在进入中年时都变得更加不幸福。X世代和千禧一代比婴儿潮一代更早陷入中年低迷，而Z世代的成年起步则远比前几代更加痛苦。在人口层面上，这些趋势意味着如今年长者看起来比年轻群体越来越不那么沮丧。

年轻人为何如此抑郁仍不清楚。劳动力市场可能提供了一些线索。在今年7月的另一项研究中，布兰奇弗劳尔博士和布赖森博士发现，美国年轻工人，尤其是受教育程度最低的群体，绝望感上升最为明显。过去，拥有一份工作似乎对心理健康有保护作用。但对美国年轻人来说，这种作用似乎已经减弱，原因可能是同一群体的工作满意度下降。

尽管这一现象可能在美国存在，但它无法解释其他地区的数据。在6月发表的第三篇工作论文中，两位作者发现，在一些南欧国家，年轻人的生活满意度自2015年以来实际上有所上升，这主要归功于青年失业率的下降。

另一个常被提及的青少年焦虑的罪魁祸首是智能手机和社交媒体的使用。自2010年代初以来，这些问题与青少年心理健康问题同步上升。有一些证据支持因果关系，但最严谨的研究——长期跟踪青少年情绪和社交媒体使用情况——并未发现应用使用与后续心理健康问题之间存在强关联。

当然，情况仍可能发生转变。《经济学人》今年早些时候的分析发现，美国年轻人的心理健康最近有所改善，这可能暗示着青春活力的回归。如果是这样， 中年人可能会再次成为最悲伤的群体 ——理想情况下，他们还保留着美好的回忆。■

FOR DECADES, surveys have suggested that middle age is the low point of life. While young and old generally reported high levels of life satisfaction, those in mid-life endured a slump. This “U-bend of happiness” or “hump of despair”, depending on your perspective, has been documented hundreds of times across many countries. The age of peak misery varied—the Swiss were saddest at 35, Ukrainians in their 60s—but the pattern was consistent.

Recently, however, the curve seems to have become warped. A study published on August 27th in PLOS ONEby economists David Blanchflower, Alex Bryson and Xiaowei Xu finds that young people across the world are now reporting the highest levels of misery of any age group. “We’ve seen a change from a hump shape to a ski slope,” says Dr Bryson

The authors first spotted the shift in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a long-running survey of Americans. They calculated the share of respondents of each age who reported having poor mental health every day in the past month. Between 2009 and 2018, the familiar hump was present: misery peaked in middle age. But from 2019 to 2024, the pattern changed. Levels of unhappiness in middle-aged and older adults remained roughly stable while despair among younger people rose (see top chart).

Britain shows the same trend. Using data from the UKHousehold Longitudinal Survey and the Annual Population Survey, the authors found that both anxiety and despair increased sharply among the under-40s after 2016, erasing the hump by 2019. There is also some evidence outside the anglophone west. The authors analysed data from the Global Mind Project, a web-based survey, and in each of the 44 countries across Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East for which sufficient data were available, young people consistently reported worse mental health than their elders.

The old hump could still emerge, however. Because the new study provides a simple snapshot of unhappiness by age at a single point in time, it is possible that today’s miserable 20-somethings will follow their predecessors’ path and become even gloomier in middle age. “It’s not inconceivable that if young people start out this badly, they could be even worse off in mid-life,” says Dr Bryson.

Longitudinal studies of well-being, which track changes in the same people over time, can reveal such long-term developments. But they are rare. The few that do exist also find the hump, with unhappiness peaking in mid-life. That lends credence to the depressing prospect that Generation Z may get sadder still.

Cohort data also support the idea that the hump could prevail. The Economistsplit the data from the BRFSSby generation (see bottom chart) and found that each cohort has become more unhappy as they have reached middle age. Generation X and millennials have slid into mid-life malaise earlier than boomers did, though, and Generation Z are starting their adult life far more miserable than any generation before. At a population level, these trends mean older people now look progressively less downcast than younger groups.

Why youngsters are so depressed is still unclear. One clue may come from the labour market. In a separate study from July this year, Dr Blanchflower and Dr Bryson found that despair has risen most sharply among young American workers, particularly the least educated. In the past, having a job seemed to provide a protective effect against poor mental health. That effect appears to have weakened for young Americans, perhaps because of falling job satisfaction among the same group.

But although it may be the case in America, it does not explain the data elsewhere. In a third working paper, published in June, the pair found that in some southern European countries life satisfaction among young people has actually risen since 2015, thanks in large part to a decrease in youth unemployment.

Another oft-cited culprit of teenage angst is smartphone and social-media use, which has risen in lockstep with youth mental-health problems since the early 2010s. There is some support for a causal link, but the most rigorous studies, which track teenagers’ mood and social-media use over long periods of time, do not find a strong relationship between such app use and subsequent mental ill-health

Of course, things may yet turn around. Analysis by The Economist earlier this year found that the mental health of young Americans has somewhat improvedrecently, perhaps hinting at a return to youthful cheerfulness. If so, mid-lifers might find themselves the saddest once again—ideally with fond memories. ■

来源：左右图史