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“俊学（20）：精读博士论文《基于差异化销售渠道的绿色产品供应链多阶段决策研究》的相关理论基础与研究方法”

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《君学（19）：深入研究博士论文《基于差异化销售渠道的绿色产品供应链多阶段决策研究》相关理论基础和研究方法

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本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读博士论文《基于差异化销售渠道的绿色产品供应链多阶段决策研究》的相关理论基础与研究方法。

This issue of the tweet will introduce the relevant theoretical basis and research methods of the intensive reading doctoral thesis "Research on Multi-stage Decision-making of Green Product Supply Chain Based on Differentiated Sales Channels" from three aspects: mind mapping, intensive reading content, and knowledge supplement.

一、思维导图（Mind Maps）

二、精读内容（Intensive reading content）

（一）、多阶段决策理论（Multi-stage decision theory）

（1）、多阶段决策理论发展（Development of multi-stage decision theory）

关于销售企业多阶段决策理论的发展历程，首先是起源阶段。在这个阶段，学者们最初提出的“逆转不等式”模型为多阶段决策奠定了基础，随后该模型被发展为马尔可夫决策过程，并被集成为一体，显示出在经济活动中的应用潜力，但当时尚未涉及销售领域。

The development of multi-stage decision-making theory for sales companies begins with its origins. During this period, scholars initially proposed the "reversal inequality" model, laying the foundation for multi-stage decision-making. This model was subsequently developed into a Markov decision process and integrated into a comprehensive framework, demonstrating potential for application in economic activities. However, at the time, this theory had not yet been applied to the sales field.

接着到了延伸阶段。在这个阶段，学者们将销售决策分为两个阶段，第一阶段是判断顾客是否有购买意向，第二阶段是在顾客有意向的情况下，满足其具体需求并提供符合期望的服务。该过程能够提升销售管理效率，促进销售发展。

Next comes the extension phase. Scholars divide sales decisions into two stages: the first is determining whether the customer has purchasing intent; the second, if the customer is interested, is to meet their specific needs and provide services that meet their expectations. This process can improve sales management efficiency and promote sales growth.

其次是完善阶段，在上世纪90年代中期，多阶段决策模型在销售管理中的应用得到扩展和完善，提出了基于概率区分购买与否的模型，并综合考虑客户需求、产品特点、销售渠道和价格等因素，形成更符合实际的销售决策方法。随后，大量实证研究验证了该模型能够有效预测和解释企业的销售行为，进一步确认了其在学术和实践中的重要价值。

The next phase was refinement. In the mid-1990s, the application of multi-stage decision-making models in sales management was expanded and refined. A model based on probability was proposed to distinguish between purchases and non-purchases, and it comprehensively considered factors such as customer needs, product characteristics, sales channels, and price, resulting in a more practical sales decision-making approach. Subsequently, numerous empirical studies validated the model's ability to effectively predict and explain corporate sales behavior, further confirming its significant value in both academic and practical settings.

最后就是应用拓展阶段，多阶段决策理论开始在不同行业和市场中得到应用，包括金融，医疗和电子商务等多个领域得到了广泛的应用，并吸引了众多学者的深入研究和探讨。

The last stage is the application expansion stage. Multi-stage decision-making theory has begun to be applied in different industries and markets, including finance, medical care, e-commerce and other fields, and has attracted in-depth research and discussion from many scholars.

（2）、多阶段决策理论的特征（Characteristics of Multi-stage Decision Theory）

多阶段决策理论强调企业在定价中应分阶段进行决策与调整，核心包括四点：一是突出灵活性，要求在不确定环境下适应市场波动和客户需求；二是强调市场反应能力，迅速应对竞争、技术和政策变化；三是注重竞争分析，通过差异化策略及市场进入退出评估提升竞争优势；四是强调市场导向，将市场需求和机会作为决策核心。该理论有助于企业在复杂多变的市场环境中保持竞争力并提高决策科学性。

The multi-stage decision-making theory emphasizes that companies should make decisions and adjustments in pricing in a phased manner. Its core principles include four key points: first, flexibility, requiring companies to adapt to market fluctuations and customer demands in an uncertain environment; second, market responsiveness, enabling rapid responses to competition, technology, and policy changes; third, competitive analysis, enhancing competitive advantage through differentiation strategies and market entry and exit assessments; and fourth, market orientation, prioritizing market demand and opportunities as the core of decision-making. This theory helps companies maintain competitiveness in complex and volatile markets and improves the scientific nature of their decisions.

（3）绿色产品供应链多阶段决策机制（Multi-stage decision-making mechanism for green product supply chain）

对于绿色产品供应链多阶段决策机制，可以划分为三个核心阶段：设计阶段，运营阶段以及回收循环阶段。首先是设计阶段，企业在设计时需权衡环境影响与发展标准，并通过研发投入、质量准则和市场需求分析来制定方案。决策机制包括效率分析以优化资源配置、成本效益分析以评估不同设计方案的价值，以及市场需求分析以把握消费者对环保产品的关注，从而选择最具环境和经济效益的绿色设计策略。

The multi-stage decision-making process for green product supply chains can be divided into three core phases: design, operation, and recycling. First, during the design phase, companies must balance environmental impacts with development standards and formulate plans based on R&D investment, quality standards, and market demand analysis. The decision-making process includes efficiency analysis to optimize resource allocation, cost-benefit analysis to assess the value of different design options, and market demand analysis to understand consumer interest in environmentally friendly products, ultimately selecting the green design strategy with the greatest environmental and economic benefits.

接下来是运营阶段，这个阶段主要包括三个核心方面：一是通过成本和竞争力分析选择合适的供应商，以降低风险；二是通过运输成本、库存管理和路径优化提升物流效率并降低环境成本；三是通过环境成本与效益分析制定合理的环境管理战略，从而实现更高效和可持续的运营。

Next is the operation stage, which mainly includes three core aspects: first, selecting suitable suppliers through cost and competitiveness analysis to reduce risks; second, improving logistics efficiency and reducing environmental costs through transportation costs, inventory management and route optimization; third, formulating reasonable environmental management strategies through environmental cost and benefit analysis to achieve more efficient and sustainable operations.

最后是回收循环阶段，企业需在产品回收、再利用和再制造中，通过回收成本与效益分析确定最经济高效的回收策略。同时，借助循环经济模型和环境外部性分析，企业能够揭示循环利用对经济增长和环境保护的积极作用，从而为供应链的最优决策提供科学依据。

Finally, in the recycling phase, companies must determine the most economical and efficient recycling strategies through cost-benefit analysis for product recovery, reuse, and remanufacturing. Furthermore, by leveraging circular economy models and environmental externality analysis, companies can uncover the positive impact of recycling on economic growth and environmental protection, providing a scientific basis for optimal supply chain decision-making.

博弈论是研究决策者之间相互影响的数学工具和方法，用于描述和分析博弈过程中的行为和结果。博弈理论中的参与者通常被称为玩家。玩家可以是个人，组织，国家等，其参与博弈并做出决策。在博弈建模中通常用n表示参与博弈的玩家数量。用S表示玩家i的策略空间，其中i=1,2..n。用ui(s)表示玩家i在策略组合s=(s1,s2,.sa)下的支付，其中si∈Si，ui(s)通常是一个实数。策略组合是指每个玩家选择的行动集合，表示为s=(s,S2,sn)，其中si∈Si。

Game theory is a mathematical tool and method for studying the interactions between decision makers, used to describe and analyze the behaviors and outcomes of games. Participants in game theory are often referred to as players. Players can be individuals, organizations, countries, etc., who participate in games and make decisions. In game modeling, n is typically used to represent the number of players involved. S represents the strategy space of player i, where i = 1, 2, ... n. ui(s) represents the payoff of player i under the strategy combination s = (s1, s2, ... sa), where si ∈ Si. ui(s) is typically a real number. The strategy combination refers to the set of actions chosen by each player, denoted as s = (s, S2, sn), where si ∈ Si.

在博弈建模中，常用的模型就是基本局势模型。基本局势模型使用支付矩阵来表述各个玩家的支付。支付矩阵是一个n维矩阵，其中的元素对于相应玩家的支付。设玩家i的支付矩阵为Ui，则Ui=[ui(s)]s∈S。

In game modeling, the basic situation model is commonly used. This model uses a payoff matrix to represent the payoffs of each player. The payoff matrix is an n-dimensional matrix whose elements correspond to the payoffs of the corresponding players. Let player i's payoff matrix be Ui, then Ui = [ui(s)]s∈S.

对于每个玩家i，如果（si，s-i）是一个纳什均衡，则对于任何其他玩家策略组合（si，s-i），有：

这里，si∈Si是玩家i的最佳策略，而s-i∈S-i是其他玩家的策略组合。

For each player i, if (si, s-i) is a Nash equilibrium, then for any other combination of player strategies (si, s-i), we have:

Here, si∈Si is the optimal strategy of player i, and s-i∈S-i is the strategy combination of the other players.

（2）、博弈模型在绿色产品供应链中的应用（Application of Game Model in Green Product supply chain）

博弈模型通过参与者、策略、支付函数和均衡解等核心要素，分析供应商、制造商、零售商及消费者之间的决策互动。在供应商与制造商的博弈中，供应商可选择使用环保原材料，制造商可利用这些材料生产绿色产品，但双方均面临成本增加的挑战。制造商与零售商之间的博弈涉及生产环保产品与销售网络选择，支付函数可结合成本、销售额、市场份额及环境收益分析最佳策略。零售商与消费者的博弈则关注推广与购买环保产品的决策，通过价格、品质与环保效益权衡，实现双方利益与环境目标的平衡。总体而言，博弈理论可帮助绿色供应链中的各决策者识别最优策略，实现经济效益与环境保护的双重目标。

Game models analyze the decision-making interactions between suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers through core elements such as participants, strategies, payoff functions, and equilibrium solutions. In the supplier-manufacturer game, suppliers can choose to use environmentally friendly raw materials, and manufacturers can use these materials to produce green products, but both parties face the challenge of increased costs. The manufacturer-retailer game involves producing environmentally friendly products and selecting sales networks. The payoff function can analyze the optimal strategy by combining costs, sales, market share, and environmental benefits. The retailer-consumer game focuses on the decision to promote and purchase environmentally friendly products, balancing the interests of both parties with environmental goals by weighing price, quality, and environmental benefits. Overall, game theory can help decision-makers in green supply chains identify optimal strategies to achieve the dual goals of economic efficiency and environmental protection.

三、知识补充（Knowledge Supplement）

1.马尔可夫决策（Markov Decision Process, MDP）

马尔可夫决策是一种用于建模决策问题的数学框架，特别适合描述在不确定环境下，决策者如何通过一系列动作最大化长期收益的问题。它广泛应用于强化学习、供应链管理、机器人控制等领域。

Markov decision-making is a mathematical framework for modeling decision-making problems. It is particularly well-suited to describing how decision-makers maximize long-term benefits through a series of actions under uncertainty. It is widely used in fields such as reinforcement learning, supply chain management, and robotic control.

2.纳什均衡（Nash Equilibrium）

纳什均衡是博弈论中的核心概念，描述在一个多方参与的决策环境中，每个参与者都无法通过单方面改变策略来获得更好结果的状态。换句话说，每个人的策略都是对其他人策略的最优回应。

Nash equilibrium is a core concept in game theory, describing a state in which, in a multi-party decision-making environment, no single participant can achieve a better outcome by unilaterally changing their strategy. In other words, each participant's strategy is the optimal response to the strategies of the others.

3.互补纳什均衡（Complementarity Nash Equilibrium, CNE）

互补纳什均衡是纳什均衡的一个特殊扩展，通常用于具有互补性约束或条件的博弈模型中，尤其在经济学、供应链管理、市场竞价等领域常见。它结合了纳什均衡与互补性条件，用于求解带约束的优化问题。

The complementary Nash equilibrium is a special extension of the Nash equilibrium, often used in game models with complementary constraints or conditions, particularly in economics, supply chain management, and market bidding. It combines the Nash equilibrium with the complementary condition to solve constrained optimization problems.

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翻译：谷歌翻译

参考资料：百度百科、Chat GPT

参考文献：许鑫鑫.基于差异化销售渠道的绿色产品供应链多阶段决策研究 [D]. 华北电力大学, 2024.

来源：LearningYard学苑