摘要：据美国有线电视新闻网在美国时间2025年6月3日（周二）报道，亿万富翁投资者桥水联合基金创始人雷·达利奥兼对冲基金经理在其6月3日出版的新书《国家如何破产：大周期》中与其他美国亿万富翁和知名经济学家一道对特朗普政府正在失去的的“大而美”税收法案提出警告，认为其

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雷·达利奥的经济与投资著作深受投资人和经济学家喜爱

据美国有线电视新闻网在美国时间2025年6月3日（周二）报道，亿万富翁投资者桥水联合基金创始人雷·达利奥兼对冲基金经理在其6月3日出版的新书《国家如何破产：大周期》中与其他美国亿万富翁和知名经济学家一道对特朗普政府正在失去的的“大而美”税收法案提出警告，认为其可能成为威胁美国稳定的“死亡螺旋”。主要内容如下：

一、达利奥认为美国政府的债务正接近无法挽回的临界点

雷·达利奥在其新书中写道，虽然美国近期爆发债务危机的风险较低，但长期风险很高；美国政府债务状况正“接近无法挽回的临界点”，并正走向可能威胁全球最大经济体稳定的“死亡螺旋”。

多年来，一些经济学家和投资者一直在对美国的财政赤字敲响警钟。但今年，随着唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税和税收法案议程引发债券市场波动，华尔街开始警惕起来，因为债券市场通常是美国和全球经济的稳定基石。

投资者越来越担心，在经济前景和美国资产吸引力存在不确定性之际，特朗普“伟大而美好的”（大而美）税收法案可能给联邦债务负担带来更大压力。

今年5月，美国政府所发行的30年期国债利率飙升至2023年以来的最高水平。这是因为投资者要么抛售债券，要么拒绝购买，并要求更高的回报，以应对向美国政府提供的看似风险更高的贷款。

达利奥是最新一位就美国债务和赤字敲响警钟的亿万富翁，他们担心庞大的美国政府债务将挤占基本公共服务支出，导致经济空心化，无法为公民服务，并吓坏全球投资者。

更高的赤字意味着美国财政部可能需要出售更多债券来为支出和利息借债。债务“死亡螺旋”指的是，政府需要发行更多债券来筹集资金偿还现有债务，但因投资者害怕政府的违约风险，政府不得不向投资者支付越来越高的利息以吸引其购买。

达利奥写道：“利率上升导致信用风险恶化，导致投资者对政府债券的需求减少，再导致利率上升的螺旋，是典型的债务‘死亡螺旋’。”

投资者要求政府为债券支付更高的利率，会减少国家运行的资金，提高消费者和企业的利率，并总体上使国家筹集资金的选择更少。

达利奥写道：“在我看来，这意味着美国政策制定者在处理政府财政时应该更加保守，因为最糟糕的情况是在困难时期财政状况恶化。”

特朗普拟将钢铝关税提高到50%，欧盟加拿大等强烈反对

二、特朗普关税与税收法案导致美债券市场大幅动荡

特朗普的新税收法案将导致政府财政赤字增加，因为它在削减税收收入的同时，没有削减足够的支出来平衡收支。

5月22日，达利奥在纽约的一场活动中表示，美国目前的赤字正处于不可持续的轨道上，“超出了市场的承受能力”。他预计，美国大约再有三年时间就会陷入“危急状况”。

达利奥说：“我认为我们应该对债券市场感到担忧。我可以告诉你，这非常非常严重。”

减税可能对华尔街有利，股市在特朗普第一任期内为其减税政策欢呼。但这次不同的是，在联邦债务负担激增的同时，赤字还在增加：根据美国财政部的数据，联邦债务与国内生产总值的比率从2017年的104%飙升至2024年的123%。

加州大学伯克利分校经济学教授艾伦·奥尔巴赫此前对CNN表示：“除了最近的衰退时期，我们现在谈论的赤字和国债与GDP的比率真的将是前所未有的。”

在达利奥的新书出版前几天，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙周五在里根国家经济论坛上也指出，债券市场“将会出现裂痕”。

巴克莱银行分析师阿杰伊·拉贾德雅克沙在最近的一份报告中表示：“美国长期国债收益率已接近（2008金融危机）以来的最高水平。随着市场消化新税收法案的细节，并意识到赤字在可预见的未来可能持续上升，风险在于长期收益率也会继续上升。”

达利奥在5月22日的活动中表示，民主党人和共和党人也未能表明他们可以在这个问题上合作。他说：“这就像坐在一艘驶向礁石的船上，他们都同意应该转向，但却无法就如何转向达成一致。”

美国国债持续上升成为投资者和经济学家忧的重大担忧

Ray Dalio just joined the list of billionaires sounding the alarm on the US economy. By John Towfighi, CNN. Tue June 3, 2025.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, speaks during an event on May 22 at the Paley Center for Media in New York. The billionaire investor and hedge fund manager shared his insight on the trends shaping published a new book, "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle," on June 3.

The US is at a low risk of an imminent debt crisis — but high risk in the long term, billionaire investor Ray Dalio writes in a new book.

The US government debt situation is “nearing the point of no return” and approaching a “death spiral” that could threaten the stability of the world’s largest economy, he writes in the book, “How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle,” published Tuesday.

Some economists and investors have been sounding the alarm about the deficit for years. But this year, Wall Street has begun to heed caution as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and tax bill agenda have stoked volatility in the bondmarket, which is the usually quiet bedrock of the US and global economies.

Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential for Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill to put pressure on the federal debt burden at a time when there is uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and the appeal of US assets.

In May, the rate the US government has to pay investors for a 30-year loan spiked to its highest level since 2023. That’s because investors either sold or refused to buy bonds and demanded higher compensation in exchange for what looked like a riskier loan to the US government.

Dalio is the latest billionaire to sound the alarm over the US debt and deficit, with worries that the vast government debt will crowd out spending on essential services to leave a hollowed-out economy that can’t work for its citizens and which spooks global investors.

There is a “very low imminent risk” of a US government debt crisis, but a “very high long-term risk,” Dalio writes in the book.

“Even though this progression has happened many times in history, most policy makers and investors think their current circumstances and monetary system won’t change,” Dalio writes. “The change is unthinkable — and then it happens suddenly.”

A higher deficit means the Treasury might need to sell more bonds to finance its spending and interest payments. A debt “death spiral” describes when a government needs to issue more bonds to raise money to pay its existing debts, but faces less demand and has to pay investors more and more interest for them to bite.

“A spiral of rising interest rates leading to worsening credit risk, leading to less demand for the debt, leading to higher interest rates is a classic debt ‘death spiral’,” Dalio writes.

The higher interest rates investors demand to loan the government money leave less money for running a country, increase interest rates for consumers and businesses and generally leave a country with fewer options to raise cash.

“To me, that suggests that US policy makers should be more, not less, conservative in dealing with the government’s finances because the worst thing possible would be to have its finances in bad shape during difficult times,” Dalio writes.

Turmoil in the bond market

Trump’s tax bill is set to raise the deficit because it slashes tax revenues without enough cuts to spending to balance things out.

The current US deficit is on unsustainable path and is “more than the market can bear,” Dalio said at an event on May 22 in New York ahead of the book’s release. He said that he anticipates it will be roughly three years before the United States is in a “critical situation.”

“I think we should be afraid of the bond market,” Dalio said. “I can tell you that this is very, very serious.”

Tax cuts can be a boon for Wall Street, and the stock market cheered Trump’s tax cuts during his first term. But what makes this time different is adding to the deficit while the federal debt burden has ballooned: The ratio of federal debt to gross domestic product, or the total value of goods and services produced in the economy, soared from 104% in 2017 to 123% in 2024, according to the Treasury Department.

“We’re now talking about deficits and a national debt-to-GDP ratio that are really going to be unprecedented, except for recent recessionary times,” Alan Auerbach, a professor of economics at UC Berkeley, previously told CNN.

Dalio’s book comes out days after JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said on Friday at the Reagan National Economic Forum that a “crack” in the bond market “is going to happen.”

“The US long bond is already near its highest levels since the (2008 financial crisis),” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, an analyst at Barclays, in a recent note. “As markets absorb the details of the new tax bill, and realize that deficits are likely to keep rising for the foreseeable future, the risk is that longer yields keep rising as well.”

Nor have Democrats and Republicans shown they can work together on the problem, Dalio said at the May 22 event.

“It’s like being on a boat that’s headed for rocks,” he said, “and they agree that they should turn, but they can’t agree on how to turn.”

来源：读行品世事一点号