越览（102）——精读复刻论文的对比分析（3）

摘要：This issue will introduce the comparative analysis of the intensively read replica paper "Emergency decision-making method based o

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“越览（102）——精读复刻论文

《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的

应急决策方法》对比分析（3）。”

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Dear, this is the LearingYard Academy!

Today, the editor brings the

"Yue Lan(102)—intensive reading replica paper

'Emergency decision-making method based on

multi-granularity probability language

and dual reference points

'comparative analysis (3)".

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一、内容摘要（Summary of content）

本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读复刻论文《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的应急决策方法》的对比分析（3）。

This issue will introduce the comparative analysis of the intensively read replica paper "Emergency decision-making method based on multi-granularity probability language and dual reference points" in terms of mind maps, intensively read content, and knowledge supplementation.

二、思维导图（Mind mapping）

三、精读内容（Intensive reading content）

为了验证本文所提方法的有效性和优越性，本文将从关键风险因素的权重确定方法和可行方案的选择方法两个方面与现有的方法进行了对比分析。在应急方案选择方法的比较分析中，本文选择了双参照点的方法，本节将前景理论中基于单参照点的分析方法和传统的期望效用理论应用于本案例与本文方法的结果进行了对比。

In order to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method, this paper will compare and analyze the existing methods from two aspects: the method of determining the weights of key risk factors and the method of selecting feasible solutions. In the comparative analysis of emergency solution selection methods, this paper chooses the double reference point method. This section applies the single reference point analysis method in prospect theory and the traditional expected utility theory to this case and compares the results with those of the proposed method.

期望效用理论是由冯·诺依曼和摩根斯坦于1947年提出,在经济学领域描述理性人在不确定条件下的决策。期望效用理论认为决策者能够将想到的各种不确定情况下出现的结果进行加权来获得最大化的效用水平，决策者一定会选择期望效用值最大的风险决策方案。

The expected utility theory was proposed by von Neumann and Morgenstern in 1947. It describes the decision-making of rational people under uncertain conditions in the field of economics. The expected utility theory believes that decision makers can weight the results of various uncertain situations to obtain the maximum utility level, and decision makers will definitely choose the risk decision plan with the largest expected utility value.

上周基于单参照点中的理想目标进行了代码复刻本周将基于传统期望效应理论进行复刻。

Last week, we replicated the code based on the ideal goal in a single reference point. This week, we will replicate it based on the traditional expectation effect theory.

依据代码计算出不同可行方案的最终感知价值如下图所示：

The final perceived value of different feasible solutions calculated based on the code is shown in the following figure:

因此可以发现基于期望效用理论的选择方法得到的排序为X2>X1>X3。

Therefore, it can be found that the ranking obtained by the selection method based on expected utility theory is X2>X1>X3.

四、知识补充（Knowledge supplement）

WAA算子是加权算术平均算子，是一种常用于加权平均值计算的数学运算方法。它通过对各个数据项赋予不同的权重，从而反映出不同数据项的重要性或贡献度。与简单算术平均数不同，WAA算子能够根据不同数值的重要性进行调整，使得一些数据项对最终结果的影响更大，而另一些数据项的影响较小。

The WAA operator is the weighted arithmetic average operator, which is a mathematical operation method commonly used to calculate weighted averages. It reflects the importance or contribution of different data items by assigning different weights to each data item. Unlike the simple arithmetic mean, the WAA operator can be adjusted according to the importance of different values, so that some data items have a greater impact on the final result, while others have a smaller impact.

WAA算子通过加权平均的方式，对给定的一组数据值进行综合处理。基本思路是将每个数据值乘以一个权重，然后对加权后的数据求和，最后再除以所有权重的总和。这样，不同数据项对最终平均值的贡献大小就取决于它们对应的权重。

The WAA operator performs comprehensive processing on a given set of data values by weighted averaging. The basic idea is to multiply each data value by a weight, then sum the weighted data, and finally divide it by the sum of all weights. In this way, the contribution of different data items to the final average value depends on their corresponding weights.

在决策分析中，WAA算子可用于对多个选项进行加权评估。例如，企业在选择项目时，可以根据项目的潜力、风险等因素设定权重，通过WAA算子得到综合评分，从而辅助决策。

In decision analysis, the WAA operator can be used to perform weighted evaluation of multiple options. For example, when selecting a project, an enterprise can set weights based on factors such as the project's potential and risk, and use the WAA operator to obtain a comprehensive score to assist in decision-making.

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