摘要：《经济学人》的《世界前瞻》（The World Ahead）是该杂志每年发布的年度特刊，专注于对未来一年的全球趋势进行预测与分析。其内容涵盖政治、经济、科技、环境及社会等多个关键领域，以前瞻性视野和深刻洞察力著称。该特刊旨在为全球决策者、商界领袖及高端读者提供

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经济学人 | 2026年世界前瞻

Tom standage’s ten trends to watch in 2026

汤姆·斯坦达格展望2026年的十大趋势

A letter from the editor of The World Ahead

《世界前瞻》主编寄语

By Tom Standage , Editor, The World Ahead 2026

Illustration: Lauren Tamaki

1.America’s 250th

美国建国250周年

Expect to hear wildly diverging accounts of America’s past, present and future, as Republicans and Democrats describe the same country in irreconcilably different terms to mark the 250th anniversary of its founding. Voters will then give their verdict on America’s future in the midterm elections in November. But even if the Democrats take the House, Mr Trump’s rule by bullying, tariffs and executive orders will go on.

预计将听到关于美国过去、现在和未来的截然不同的描述，因为共和党人和民主党人将用不可调和的不同措辞来描述同一个国家，以纪念其建国250周年。选民随后将在11月的中期选举中对美国的未来做出裁决。但即使民主党控制了众议院，特朗普先生通过欺凌、关税和行政命令进行统治的方式仍将继续。

2.Geopolitical drift

地缘政治漂移

Foreign-policy analysts are divided: is the world in a new cold war, between blocs led by America and China, or will a Trumpian deal divide the planet into American, Russian and Chinese “spheres of influence”, in which each can do as they please? Don’t count on either. Mr Trump prefers a transactional approach based on instinct, not grand geopolitical paradigms. The old global rules-based order will drift and decay further. But “coalitions of the willing” will strike new deals in areas such as defence, trade and climate.

外交政策分析家们存在分歧：世界是处于一场由美国和中国领导的新冷战之中，还是特朗普式的交易会将地球划分为美、俄、中"势力范围"，各自为所欲为？两者都别指望。特朗普先生更喜欢基于本能而非宏大 geopolitics 范式的交易式方法。旧的基于规则的全球秩序将进一步漂移和衰败。但"意愿联盟"将在国防、贸易和气候等领域达成新的协议。

3.War or peace? Yes

战争还是和平？都是

With luck, the fragile peace in Gaza will hold. But conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar. Russia and China will test America’s commitment to its allies with “grey-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. As the line between war and peace becomes ever more blurred, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor and in cyberspace.

幸运的话，加沙脆弱的和平将得以维持。但乌克兰、苏丹和缅甸的冲突将持续胶着。俄罗斯和中国将通过在北欧和南海的"灰色地带"挑衅来测试美国对其盟友的承诺。随着战争与和平之间的界限日益模糊，北极、轨道、海底和网络空间的紧张局势将会加剧。

4.Problems for Europe

欧洲的难题

All this poses a particular test for Europe. It must increase defence spending, keep America on side, boost economic growth and deal with huge deficits, even though austerity risks stoking support for hard-right parties. It also wants to remain a leading advocate for free trade and greenery. It cannot do all of these at once. A splurge on defence spending may lift growth, but only slightly.

所有这些都对欧洲构成了特别的考验。它必须增加国防开支，维系与美国的关系，促进经济增长并处理巨额赤字，尽管紧缩政策可能助长极右翼政党的支持率。它还希望继续保持自由贸易和环保的主要倡导者地位。它无法同时完成所有这些任务。国防开支的大幅增加可能会提振增长，但幅度有限。

5.China’s opportunity

中国的机遇

Mr Trump’s “America First” policy opens up new opportunities for China to boost its global influence. It will present itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the global south, where it is striking a string of trade agreements. It is happy to do tactical deals with Mr Trump on soyabeans or chips. The trick will be to keep relations with America transactional, not confrontational.

特朗普的"美国优先"政策为中国提升其全球影响力开辟了新的机遇。它将把自己塑造成一个更可靠的合作伙伴，尤其是在全球南方国家，它正在那里达成一系列贸易协议。它乐意在大豆或芯片问题上与特朗普先生进行战术性交易。关键在于保持与美国的关系是交易性的，而非对抗性的。

6.Economic worries

经济忧虑

So far America’s economy is proving more resilient than many expected to Mr Trump’s tariffs, but they will dampen global growth. And with rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing. Much will depend on the replacement of Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve in May; politicising the Fed could trigger a market showdown.

迄今为止，美国经济对特朗普关税表现出的韧性超出了许多人的预期，但这些关税将抑制全球增长。而且，随着富裕国家入不敷出，债券市场危机的风险正在增加。很大程度上将取决于五月份接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席的人选；将美联储政治化可能引发市场摊牌。

7.Concerns over AI

对人工智能的担忧

Rampant spending on infrastructure for artificial intelligence may also be concealing economic weakness in America. Will the bubble burst? As with railways, electricity and the internet, a crash would not mean that the technology does not have real value. But it could have wide economic impact. Either way, concern about ai’s impact on jobs, particularly those of graduates, will deepen.

在人工智能基础设施上的狂热支出可能也掩盖了美国的经济疲软。泡沫会破裂吗？与铁路、电力和互联网一样，崩盘并不意味着该技术没有真正价值。但它可能产生广泛的经济影响。无论如何，对人工智能影响就业，尤其是毕业生就业的担忧将会加深。

8.A mixed climate picture

喜忧参半的气候图景

Limiting warming to 1.5°C is off the table, and Mr Trump hates renewables. But global emissions have probably peaked, clean tech is booming across the global south and firms will meet or exceed their climate targets—but will keep quiet about it to avoid Mr Trump’s ire. Geothermal energy is worth watching.

将升温限制在1.5°C已无可能，而且特朗普先生憎恶可再生能源。但全球排放量可能已经见顶，全球南方国家的清洁技术正在蓬勃发展，公司将达到或超过其气候目标——但会对此保持沉默，以避免激怒特朗普先生。地热能值得关注。

9.Sporting values

体育价值观

Sport can always be relied upon to provide a break from politics, right? Well, maybe not in 2026. The football World Cup is being jointly hosted by America, Canada and Mexico, whose relations are strained. Fans may stay away. But the Enhanced Games, in Las Vegas, may be even more controversial: athletes can use performance-enhancing drugs. Is it cheating—or just different?

体育总可以被依赖用来暂时摆脱政治，对吧？嗯，在2026年可能就不行了。足球世界杯由美国、加拿大和墨西哥联合主办，这三国的关系紧张。球迷可能会望而却步。但在拉斯维加斯举行的"增强运动会"可能更具争议性：运动员可以使用提高成绩的药物。这是作弊——还是仅仅不同？

10.Ozempic, but butter

司美格鲁肽，但也有黄油

Better, cheaper glp-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too. That will expand access. But is taking them cheating? glp-1s extend the debate about the ethics of performance-enhancing drugs to a far wider group than athletes or bodybuilders. Few people compete in the Olympics. But anyone can take part in the Ozempic games.

更好、更便宜的GLP-1减肥药即将问世，并且也有丸剂形式。这将扩大使用范围。但服用它们是作弊吗？GLP-1药物将关于提高成绩药物伦理的辩论扩展到了远比运动员或健美运动员广泛得多的群体。没多少人能参加奥运会。但任何人都可以参加"司美格鲁肽游戏"。

来源：小镇评论家