摘要：The stockmarket is not the economy, as the old investing cliché goes. That is obvious enough to anyone paying attention in America

The stockmarket is fuelling America’s economy

What happens in the event of a slump?

在经济衰退的情况下会发生什么？

The stockmarket is not the economy, as the old investing cliché goes. That is obvious enough to anyone paying attention in America this year. President Donald Trump’s tariff fervour has dented growth, even if not by as much as expected after “Liberation Day”, and yet the stockmarket has soared: the S&P 500 index of large American companies is up by nearly 15% so far this year, comfortably ahead of the historical average.

正如古老的投资陈词滥调所说，股市不是经济。这对今年关注美国的任何人来说都是显而易见的。唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税狂热已经削弱了经济增长，即使在“解放日”之后没有预期的那么严重，但股市却飙升：今年到目前为止，美国大型公司的标准普尔500指数上涨了近15%，远远超过了历史平均水平。

But does the stockmarket power the economy? At most points in time, it would be a ridiculous question. In recent months, though, the rise in American share prices has coincided with, and been fed by, a rush of popular enthusiasm for investing. And as people see the line go up, they become more likely to spend. Now the answer to the question has important implications for the path of America’s stockmarket boom and its economy.

但股市真的能推动经济发展吗？在大多数情况下，这将是一个荒谬的问题。然而，近几个月来，美国股价的上涨与大众投资热情的高涨不谋而合，并受到这股热潮的推动。当人们看到这条线上升时，他们就更有可能消费。现在，这个问题的答案对美国股市繁荣及其经济的走向有着重要的影响。

George Soros, a hedge-fund great, would call the relationship between the stockmarket and the economy “reflexivity”, the idea being that asset prices can affect underlying economic fundamentals, which in turn juice asset prices, and so on and so forth. Many a buck could be made, he thought, by jumping on dislocations that result from such a dynamic. An earnest economist would label it a “wealth effect”, noting that rising asset prices can nudge people to spend more, amplifying economic cycles.

对冲基金巨头乔治•索罗斯（George Soros）将股市与经济之间的关系称为“反射性”，即资产价格会影响潜在的经济基本面，而经济基本面反过来又会影响资产价格，如此循环往复。他想，如果抓住这种动态导致的混乱，可以赚很多钱。一位认真的经济学家会将其称为“财富效应”，指出不断上涨的资产价格会促使人们增加消费，从而放大经济周期。

Economists have most clearly observed such an effect in housing markets, which is traditionally where the bulk of household savings have sat. When home prices soar, people feel more comfortable making big purchases, perhaps by drawing down savings or borrowing more. Indeed, studies find that a $1 boost in housing wealth nudges up spending by between two and six cents.

经济学家在房地产市场观察到的这种效应最为明显，传统上大部分家庭储蓄都集中在房地产市场。当房价飙升时，人们会更放心地购买大宗商品，可能是通过减少储蓄或增加借贷。事实上，研究发现，住房财富每增加1美元，支出就会增加2到6美分。

Today, though, America’s housing market is in the dumps. Higher mortgage rates have crushed demand; home sales are a third lower than they were in the go-go days of 2021, when buyers were enjoying two-point-something-per-cent mortgages. Anyone looking to move today must be willing to trade such low interest rates for ones of 6-7%, and few are. As a consequence, home prices are edging down—hardly the basis for a surge in consumption.

然而，今天美国的房地产市场却处于低迷状态。更高的抵押贷款利率打压了需求；与2021年的繁荣时期相比，房屋销售下降了三分之一，当时购房者享受的抵押贷款利率为2%左右。任何想要在今天出手的人都必须愿意将如此低的利率换成6-7%的利率，而很少有人愿意这样做。因此，房价正在缓慢下跌——这很难成为消费激增的基础。

But look at the stockmarket soar. AI-related exuberance has propelled the valuations of technology companies. Even duller businesses have benefitted; companies in the “S&P 493”, excluding the “magnificent seven” tech giants, are also trading at multi-decade-high valuations. How strong could stockmarket-wealth effects be? Although historical studies have found a smaller impact than for housing, the boom in retail investing, fuelled by easy-to-use platforms such as Robinhood, may have caused this to change. Portfolios squirrelled away in retirement accounts or in complex and hard-to-sell mutual funds might set the animal spirits alight rather less than a rising green line on a trading app.

但看看股市的飙升吧。人工智能相关的繁荣推动了科技公司的估值。即使是单调乏味的行业也从中受益；“标准普尔493”成分股公司（不包括“宏伟的七家”科技巨头）的估值也处于数十年来的高位。股市财富效应会有多强？尽管历史研究发现，比特币对房地产的影响要小于对房地产的影响，但在Robinhood等易于使用的平台的推动下，零售投资的繁荣可能导致了这种情况的改变。存在退休账户或复杂且难以出售的共同基金中的投资组合可能会点燃动物精神，而不是在交易应用程序上出现一条上升的绿线。

Rich people tend to have a higher share of their wealth in stocks, relative to housing, than poor people, meaning they are probably benefiting disproportionately from surging share prices. Since they are less likely to amp up their spending when their wealth increases (or have a lower marginal propensity to consume, in the jargon), this will somewhat mute the wealth effect. Yet stock holdings have risen sharply in recent years among the less well-off, too. In 1989 only 3% of the poorest fifth of households held stocks, according to a long-running survey conducted by the Federal Reserve. By 2022, 17% did. The share of average-earners with stock holdings rose from 29% to 60% over the same period. Given recent exuberance, it is likely that both figures are higher today.

相对于房地产，富人的财富在股票中所占的比例往往高于穷人，这意味着他们可能会从飙升的股价中获得不成比例的好处。因为当他们的财富增加时，他们不太可能增加支出（或者用行话来说，边际消费倾向较低），这将在某种程度上减弱财富效应。然而，近年来，不太富裕人群的股票持有量也大幅上升。根据美联储进行的一项长期调查，1989年，最贫穷的五分之一的家庭中只有3%持有股票。到2022年，这一比例为17%。同期，持有股票的中等收入者比例从29%上升到60%。鉴于最近的繁荣，这两个数字今天可能更高。

A wealth boom concentrated among the better-off might also help explain some unusual features in the modern American economy. These include the fact that the rich seem to have been able to increase their spending much faster than everyone else over the past few years, and that so far this year growth in employment has been much slower than growth in consumer spending. Perhaps a few big spenders are keeping everything afloat.

财富繁荣集中在富裕人群中，这或许也有助于解释现代美国经济的一些不寻常特征。这些因素包括，在过去几年里，富人似乎能够比其他人更快地增加支出，而且今年到目前为止，就业增长远低于消费支出增长。也许是一些出手阔绰的人在维持着一切。

The good times could continue, at least for a bit longer. Goldman Sachs, a bank, estimates that wealth effects will boost annualised consumption growth by 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter of this year, and 0.2 percentage points next year. If stock and home prices were to rise by 25% and 6% respectively, which would represent strong but not unprecedented performance, the boost could rise to half a percentage point. That would help protect the economy from tariffs, lower immigration and any other ill-conceived policies that might emerge from the White House.

好时光可能会持续下去，至少会持续一段时间。高盛银行估计，财富效应将使今年第三季度的年化消费增长提高0.3个百分点，明年提高0.2个百分点。如果股票和房价分别上涨25%和6%，这将代表强劲但不是前所未有的表现，那么刺激可能会上升到0.5个百分点。这将有助于保护经济不受关税、低移民和白宫可能出台的任何其他考虑不周的政策的影响。

American doom-mongers have had a tough time over the past decade or so. Yet they will be well aware that wealth effects can go the other way, too: falling stock prices could hurt consumer spending, and do so at a vulnerable time. Household wealth is nearly six times GDP, a record high, meaning any fall would be painful. Troublingly, McKinsey, a consultancy, reckons that nearly 60% of the growth in American wealth since 2000 has been “on paper” (ie, beyond what actual economic growth would justify).

在过去十年左右的时间里，美国的末日论者经历了一段艰难的时期。然而，他们会很清楚，财富效应也可能产生相反的效果：股价下跌可能损害消费者支出，而且是在经济脆弱的时候。家庭财富几乎是GDP的六倍，创历史新高，这意味着任何下降都将是痛苦的。令人不安的是，咨询公司麦肯锡估计，自2000年以来，美国财富增长的近60%是“纸面上的”（即，超出了实际经济增长所能证明的）。

Might a wealthier society also take a harder fall? Bears would point to the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000, when a brutal stockmarket slump pushed America into recession. Today stockmarket wealth is 50% higher as a share of GDP than it was then. But it is also worth looking to another tech bubble, one that popped more recently. Over the course of 2022, the value of Americans’ stock holdings relative to GDP fell by a quarter, as the share prices of pandemic tech darlings cratered while the Fed furiously raised interest rates in an attempt to contain inflation. Although consumption growth did slow towards the end of that year, it remained positive and rebounded soon enough. The stockmarket might be more of the economy. It still is not all of it. ■

一个更富裕的社会是否也会遭受更严重的打击？看空者会指出2000年互联网泡沫的破裂，当时残酷的股市暴跌将美国推入衰退。今天股市财富占GDP的比重比当时高出50%。但同样值得关注的是另一个科技泡沫，一个最近才破裂的泡沫。在2022年期间，美国人持有的股票相对于GDP的价值下降了四分之一，因为大流行的科技宠儿的股价暴跌，而美联储为了遏制通货膨胀而大幅加息。尽管消费增长在接近年底时确实有所放缓，但仍保持正增长，并很快反弹。股市可能是经济的一部分。但这还不是全部。

The Economists, October 11 2025，Free exchange

来源：新浪财经