摘要：印尼的能源未来正成为中美博弈的焦点：中国以540亿美元投资推动太阳能与电动汽车产业链，创造数万就业；美国则施压进口液化天然气，可能加深化石燃料依赖。这场竞争将决定发展中国家下一代能源的规则。

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印尼的能源未来正成为中美博弈的焦点：中国以540亿美元投资推动太阳能与电动汽车产业链，创造数万就业；美国则施压进口液化天然气，可能加深化石燃料依赖。这场竞争将决定发展中国家下一代能源的规则。

印尼首都雅加达的太阳能发电设施

一、中美与印尼的能源合作提供了了不同的能源发展模式

美联社2025年9月23日报道称，全球最大煤炭出口国印度尼西亚的退煤竞赛，已演变成美国与中国在推进能源国际合作方面的博弈。成败攸关的不仅是印尼的气候未来，更关乎哪个超级大国能为发展中国家的下一代能源制定规则和提供能源发展新模式。

与多数发展中国家一样，印尼正面临两种截然不同的能源未来选择。

2023年，中国企业与印尼国家电力公司签署了价值超540亿美元的协议；2024年印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托访华期间，双方又新增100亿美元承诺。如今，中国企业正迅速深度融入印尼清洁能源供应链的各个环节，涵盖太阳能、关键矿产开采及电动汽车等领域。

这些投资令2022年印尼与多个富裕国家签署的“公正能源转型伙伴关系”（JETP）相形见绌，该伙伴关系承诺提供200亿美元资金，帮助印尼退煤（煤炭产业约占铺展GDP的3.6%）。

早在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府于2025年3月正式退出JETP前，该协议下的项目就已举步维艰。目前JETP仅向印尼的能源项目拨付了12亿美元资金，约占其承诺总额的6%，而印尼认为其能源转型所需资金超过970亿美元。

美国是全球最大石油生产国，在与印尼的关税谈判中，一直胁迫印尼采购美国的液化天然气，并将其视为减少印尼与中国合作的政策。而中国则押注大规模可再生能源，以巩固其全球最大清洁能源技术供应国的地位。

美国的路径可能导致印尼对化石燃料的依赖加深，而中国却承诺创造就业岗位与提供更清洁的能源。

总部设在印尼的专注于亚洲能源转型与气候变化议题的独立非营利智库能源转型研究所联合创始人普特拉·阿迪古纳表示：“这两个国家正在塑造两种截然不同的未来愿景。”

依赖媒发电的印尼急需能源转型，实现减污和可持续发展

二、美今年3月退出JETP协议影响其未来能源主导权

阿迪古纳称，该协议签署时，美国总统拜登任命的气候特使约翰·克里曾表示，美国已与印尼等发展中国家奠定了良好的气候合作基础。但在特朗普废除拜登时期的气候政策并推动化石燃料开发后，印尼官员提出质疑：既然美国不推进转型，印尼为何要这么做？

他还补充道，JETP初期的磋商“设定了不切实际的高预期”，所提出的目标无论美国政策是否变化都难以实现。

位于雅加达的托尼·布莱尔全球变革研究所的乔丹·李表示，美国曾承诺提供20亿美元，其中约一半仍可通过贷款担保获取。JETP原本就只打算覆盖印尼约970亿美元所需资金的一部分。鉴于印尼太阳能与风能产业规模极小，仅占总能源的0.24%（而菲律宾为3.8%，越南为13%），外国投资至关重要。李指出，JETP还为利益相关方提供了一个统一平台，可助力印尼与阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯等新兴国家建立合作关系。

2024年，比亚迪宣布投资10亿美元在印尼建设年产15万辆汽车的工厂

三、中国提供的能源发展新模式

阿迪古纳表示，中国提供了“另一种版本的能源安全”，用可发电数十年的太阳能电池板取代进口化石燃料。

中国在印尼的重大项目如下：2022年电池巨头宁德时代与当地合作伙伴达成的60亿美元供应链合作；2024年比亚迪宣布投资10亿美元建设电动汽车工厂，该工厂年产量将达15万辆，可创造1.8万个就业岗位；2024年，中国贝特瑞新材料集团投产一座耗资4.78亿美元的工厂，专门生产电动汽车电池负极材料，可创造约8000个就业岗位；2025年，隆基绿能建成一座太阳能电池板工厂，年产能达160万千瓦。

总部位于英国伦敦的全球能源与气候智库“余烬”专注于东南亚问题的能源分析师迪妮塔·塞亚瓦蒂表示：“这是一场全系统变革。”她指出，这意味着一个国家可以从中国购买太阳能电池板，并用清洁电力为中国制造的电动汽车充电。

这些项目的快速落地对印尼五年一届的政治周期而言仍至关重要。2024年，中国电建仅用7个月就建成了一座10万千瓦的太阳能电站。阿迪古纳称：“如果一家美国公司要用四年时间做可行性研究，那届时中国企业早已完成了投资。”

印尼为换取美国降低印尼商品关税被迫增加对美国天然气的采购

印尼能源部长巴希尔·拉哈达利亚4月表示，作为关税谈判的一部分，印尼将被迫把从美国进口的液化天然气（LNG）的规模增加约100亿美元。

分析人士指出，风险在于这些天然气交易可能进一步加深印尼对化石燃料的依赖。而全球正迅速转向成本更低、部署更快的太阳能和风能。签署长期进口天然气的进口协议可能导致印尼在清洁能源转型中落后，并错失投资机遇，例如东南亚地区积极寻求开发再生能源以向数据中心供电的项目。她说：“而一旦他们（印尼）意识到这一点，可能已经太晚了。”

Indonesia’s clean energy future is at the center of a supply struggle between the US and China. By ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL on AP. September 23, 2025.

The race to replace coal in Indonesia, the world’s largest coal exporter, has become a contest between the U.S. and China. At stake is not only Indonesia’s climate future, but also which superpower sets the terms for the next generation of energy in the developing world.

Like much of the developing world, Indonesia faces a choice between two stark energy futures.

Chinese companies signed more than $54 billion in agreements in 2023 with Indonesian state utility PLN, while Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s 2024 Beijing visit added $10 billion in commitments. Chinese firms are now rapidly embedding themselves in Indonesia’s clean-energy supply chain, from solar and critical mineral mining to electric vehicles, also known as EVs.

These investments dwarf the $20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership, or JETP, signed in 2022 between Indonesia and a group of wealthy nations to help the country shift away from coal, which contributes 3.6% of the country’s GDP.

The program was faltering even before U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration formally withdrew in March. Only $1.2 billion, or about 6%, of JETP finances have been disbursed while Indonesia believes it needs over $97 billion for the transition.

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The U.S. is the world’s top oil producer and has pushed liquefied natural gas, or LNG, as part of talks meant to head off tariffs for Indonesia. It touts “energy dominance” as a way to cut dependence on rivals like China. Beijing is betting on big renewables to cement its role as the biggest supplier of clean energy technology.

The U.S. path risks deeper fossil fuel dependence, while China’s promises jobs and cleaner power with fewer safeguards.

“These two countries ... they’re shaping two different visions of the future,” Putra Adhiguna of the Energy Shift Institute said.

U.S. exit impacts politics but not investment

The U.S. withdrawal in March didn’t derail the JETP, but impacted political leadership, analysts said.

When the deal was signed, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said America had laid the groundwork. But after Trump dismantled Biden-era climate policies and pushed fossil fuel development, Indonesian officials questioned why they should transition if America isn’t, Adhiguna said.

Early JETP conversations “set expectations unrealistically high,” raising goals that were hard to achieve regardless of U.S. policy changes, he added.

The U.S. pledged $2 billion, with roughly half still accessible via loan guarantees, said Jordan Lee of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in Jakarta. The JETP always was meant to cover only a portion of the roughly $97 billion needed. Foreign investment was critical given Indonesia’s tiny solar and wind sector, accounting for 0.24% of total energy compared with 3.8% in the Philippines and 13% in Vietnam.

Lee said the JETP also provided a unifying platform for stakeholders and helped Indonesia partner with new countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Indonesia’s JETP secretariat didn’t respond to a request for comment from The Associated Press.

China offers a new model

China offers a “different version of energy security,” replacing imported fossil fuels with solar panels that generate electricity for decades, Adhiguna said.

Major Chinese projects in Indonesia include a $6 billion supply-chain venture by battery giant CATL with local partners in 2022 and BYD’s $1 billion EV plant announced in 2024 will produce 150,000 cars annually and employ 18,000 workers.

China’s BTR New Material Group launched a $478 million factory in 2024 that will make anode materials for EV batteries and create around 8,000 jobs, while a solar panel factory unveiled in 2025 by LONGi has an annual capacity of 1.6 gigawatts.

“It’s a whole-systems change,” said Dinita Setyawati, an energy analyst focused on Southeast Asia at the think tank Ember. She noted this meant a country could buy solar panels from China and charge their Chinese-built electric cars with clean electricity.

These projects are deployed quickly, which is crucial for Indonesia’s five-year political cycles, even if Western investors offer more safeguards. POWERCHINA built a 100-megawatt solar park in just seven months in 2024.

“If a U.S. company takes four years to do a feasibility study, Chinese companies will already have invested by then,” Adhiguna said.

But Chinese investments often have come with high environmental costs.

Most of Indonesia’s nickel mines, for instance, are Chinese-owned. The country has the biggest reserves of the mineral needed to build EV batteries and the mines rely on captive coal-fired power plants, built on-site to supply electricity.

A 2024 study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air on the impact of nickel mining in three Indonesian provinces found pollution from smelters and the coal-fired power plants would cost the economy $2.6 billion in 2025, rising to $3.4 billion by 2030, while resulting in more than 3,800 deaths in 2025 and nearly 5,000 by 2030.

US gas could lock Indonesia into fossil fuels

Indonesia’s energy minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, said in April it would boost LNG imports from the U.S. by around $10 billion as part of tariff negotiations. LNG is natural gas cooled to liquid for storage and transport, burning cleaner than coal but still emitting greenhouse gases.

The risk is that the gas deals could further entrench Indonesia’s reliance on fossil fuels. Committing to long-term deals risks leaving countries stuck with outdated infrastructure, even as the world moves quickly toward cheaper, faster-to-deploy solar and wind power, analysts said.

Indonesia could risk falling behind in the clean energy transition and miss out on investment opportunities, such as data centers seeking renewable energy in Southeast Asia, Setyawati said.

“And once they realize it, it might be too late,” she said.

Meanwhile, Indonesia remains deeply tied to coal. It was the only country to propose building new coal plants and had the third-highest amount of coal capacity globally in 2024. About 80% of the 1.9 gigawatts of coal capacity Indonesia built was for the captive coal plants for smelters processing minerals like nickel and cobalt for electric vehicles, according to a report by U.S.-based nonprofit Global Energy Monitor.

“The Indonesian government needs to realize that this is where the world is heading, like it or not,” Setyawati said.

来源：读行品世事一点号