摘要：The swift proliferation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in maritime transportation has sparked concerns over the leak risk in shipp
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PREDICTIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR LEAKAGE ACCIDENT OF OFFSHORE LNG TRANSFER SYSTEM
作者：Sun, Yu;Kang, Jichuan
来源：EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS, 2025, Volume 271.
滑动阅读摘要
The swift proliferation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in maritime transportation has sparked concerns over the leak risk in shipping and transfer. Influenced by the uncertain marine environment and the intricate arrangement of upper deck, the heterogeneous and variable LNG transfer leakage scenarios pose substantial challenges to the simulation of all potential leakage scenarios. Additionally, the diffusion patterns associated with each specific operational condition cannot be rapidly derived through simulation, which in turn limits the scope for earlystage risk assessment. This study presents a predictive risk assessment framework aimed to forecast leak of offshore LNG transfer systems, evaluate leak risk, and develop emergency plans. Firstly, Latin hypercube sampling is implemented to obtain multiple leakage scenarios considering various operating conditions, facilitating batch simulations of leakage-diffusion based on computational fluid dynamics. Then, the deep spatial-temporal sequence model is proposed to estimate the concentration of LNG leaks in the transfer system using a simulation dataset. Finally, the interpretive structural modeling was conducted to analyse the correlation of factors influencing emergency decision-making, leading to the proposal of emergency response schemes. The results demonstrate the accuracy of the prediction model and the applicability of the proposed framework. Leak response measures and auxiliary measures are identified as the two most immediate factors influencing emergency decision-making by interpretive structural modelling. The proposed predictive risk assessment framework is substantial valuable in broadening the technical solutions available to support risk management and accident prevention of offshore LNG transfer operation.
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