摘要：As economists and analysts challenge the prudence behind U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on China, the U.S. preside

ByAzhar Azam

As economists and analysts challenge the prudence behind U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on China, the U.S. president has cranked up the heat, which will however leave ordinary Americans and his voters reeling from high inflation amid steep interest rates.

The Trump administration ramped up tariffs on Beijing to an unprecedented 145 percent when China responded with 84 percent retaliatory tariffs, forcing the world's biggest manufacturer to retaliate further with 125 percent levy on U.S. goods.

Economists and analysts warn that Beijing has built a largely trade war-proof economy over the decades and U.S. consumers will feel the pinch of Trump's salvo. China mostly exports consumer goods such as computers, gaming consoles, smartphones and toys to the U.S. and imports primarily industrial and manufacturing supplies, like aircraft, fossil fuels and soybean.

While China can absorb some of the price increases for U.S. goods before they are passed on to consumers or diversify much of its imports, Americans would struggle to find alternatives to China-made products. "If the world is settling in for a long trade war, Trump's most formidable rival has already fortified itself," an article in Bloomberg concluded.

Trump's global tariff spree has unnerved small and large businesses, and his voters. Those who voted him to revitalize the economy and get them jobs, not commit an economic suicide, are bracing for shock effects, including mass layoffs. Many are regretting their support, worrying that this "economic nuclear winter" would eat up their life savings at home, in banks or in stock markets.

One of Trump's overarching goals is to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. but he is mistaken. For instance, economists caution that footwear giant Nike, despite tariffs, won't shift production to make sneakers in America. Instead, it would redirect its sale to other countries like China.

Trump's tariff blitz has been called "worse than the worst-case scenario" and a "fundamental misunderstanding of how trade works," with critics grilling him for undermining the competitiveness of 140 million non-manufacturing workers.

The trade war has and continues to strengthen China. Notwithstanding the strenuous campaigns of successive U.S. administrations to hobble the Chinese economy, the country's export competitiveness has improved. In 2024, Beijing posted a record trade surplus of around $1 trillion from $823 billion in 2023. The astonishing growth indicates that Beijing, albeit facing some challenges, can weather a trade war.

Beijing has refused to cave in to the U.S. bullying, dubbing Trump's newest threat a "mistake on top of a mistake." Trump's extortionist-like approach has also been condemned by other world leaders, who have called his actions "deeply regrettable" and "brutal and unfounded."

Levies may affect China in the short-term but in the long run, they will help accelerate China's economic transition. For example, consumption in China is estimated to be around 60 percent of the national GDP, compared to the U.S.'s 70 percent to 80 percent. By revving up consumer spending, China may make up for the lost U.S. exports and march toward more self-reliance for growth.

Thanks to a number of government policies, consumption has been steadily climbing in China. Recent research showed that in the first quarter of 2025, indices measuring offline consumption, small commodity market operations, daily-life service and the leisure and entertainment industry all grew substantially, injecting a new vitality into the country's consumption market.

According to findings released by the U.S. National Retail Federation, a 60 percent blanket tax on Chinese goods is estimated to cost U.S. consumers between $46 billion and $78 billion in spending power. An escalation of the trade war will send them into uncharted waters.

Beijing is forecast to import record quantities of soybean in the April-June period. But with China's retaliation, U.S. farmers are slated to lose their biggest export market, a market that will not be easy to replace. As planting season nears in several U.S. regions, the tariff war has made American farmers fearful.

Economists and investors say Trump's "Liberation Day" will go down in history as "Ruination Day" and "Obliteration Day." It has put Boeing especially in a vulnerable position against rivals as China's retaliatory duties will significantly increase the cost of its aircraft. This blow will be hard, given that the American airplane manufacturer has projected a demand of 8,830 new planes in China through 2043. Boeing's loss could mean opportunities for China's home-grown large passenger aircraft C919.

Like its predecessor, Trump's second trade war would also be problematic. His "massive geostrategic mistake" presents an opportunity for China. By boosting consumption, fostering "industries of the future" such as embodied artificial intelligence, bio-manufacturing, and 6G technology, capitalizing on its lead in clean energy and electrical vehicles, and strengthening economic and trade cooperation with other countries, Beijing can blunt the impact of Trump's unparalleled aggression and sustain its pace of economic rejuvenation.

Azhar Azam works in a private organization as “Market & Business Analysts” and writes on geopolitical issues and regional conflicts.

来源：中国网一点号