摘要：莉迪亚·萨阿德是盖洛普美国社会研究总监，负责维护盖洛普对美国民意的长期趋势和持续测量。她为盖洛普新闻网站撰写大量文章，涵盖社会、政治和经济话题，并向媒体介绍这些发现。她还是盖洛普公共发布委员会成员，该委员会负责制定并执行公司公共发布工作的标准，同时她还担任盖洛

莉迪亚·萨阿德（Lydia Saad）

莉迪亚·萨阿德是盖洛普美国社会研究总监，负责维护盖洛普对美国民意的长期趋势和持续测量。她为盖洛普新闻网站撰写大量文章，涵盖社会、政治和经济话题，并向媒体介绍这些发现。她还是盖洛普公共发布委员会成员，该委员会负责制定并执行公司公共发布工作的标准，同时她还担任盖洛普机构审查委员会主席。

华盛顿特区——美国人对当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在第二任期内将取得的成就抱有复杂的期望，他们预计特朗普将在七项政策目标上取得成功，但怀疑他能否实现另外八项政策目标。

人们对特朗普控制非法移民的预期最高，68%的美国成年人预测他会做到这一点。较少一部分人认为他会降低失业率、保护国家免受恐怖主义侵害、改善经济、避免战争、降低民众税收或降低犯罪率。

相反，大多数美国人不认为特朗普会弥合美国的政治分歧、改善环境质量、改善医疗保健系统、改善种族关系、改善教育、大幅减少联邦预算赤字、改善少数族裔和穷人的生活条件，或降低食品杂货和其他物品的价格。

公众对特朗普总统任期在两个问题上的前景不太明朗——改善联邦政府的运作方式，以及提升美国在海外的尊重。大约一半的人认为他能够——或者无法——实现这两个目标。

这些结果来自 12 月 2 日至 18 日的盖洛普民意调查，其中51% 的美国人（略高于 2016 年 12 月）表示他们赞同特朗普处理总统过渡的方式。

党派偏见强烈影响着美国人对特朗普新任期内政绩的期待。

盖洛普还调查了美国人对特朗普在 2016 年过渡期的期望，询问了今天评级的 17 个问题中的 16 个——几乎都降低了价格。

与2016年相比，现在有更多美国人相信特朗普能带领美国避免战争，这一比例上升了17个百分点，达到55%。相比之下，2016年，大多数（57%）的美国人怀疑他能否带领美国避免战争。这种转变可能反映了特朗普的以下说法：如果他担任总统，俄乌战争和以哈马斯战争就不会发生；他会迅速结束这两场战争；而且他在第一任期内“不会发动新的战争”。

此外，自2016年以来，对他将控制非法移民的信心增加了9个百分点，对他降低犯罪率的信心增加了8个百分点，对他改善种族关系的信心增加了6个百分点。然而，对后者的预测仍然偏向负面。

如今，美国人对特朗普能否改善医疗和教育领域国家状况的信心不如2016年，乐观比例分别下降了12个百分点和10个百分点。因此，尽管2016年大多数美国人对特朗普在这些问题上的表现充满希望，但如今的情况却截然相反。特朗普在弥合国内政治分歧方面的支持率也下降了6个百分点，降至33%。

两年来，对特朗普在其他九个政策领域的预期并未发生实质性变化。这包括特朗普承诺建立由美国商人埃隆·马斯克和维韦克·拉马斯瓦米领导的政府效率部门所优先考虑的两个目标：改善联邦政府的运作方式和减少联邦预算赤字。

盖洛普调查了自 1980 年罗纳德·里根以来所有即将上任的总统在过渡时期对美国人议题的预测，以及对三名进入第二任期的总统的预测：2005 年 1 月的乔治·W·布什、2012 年的巴拉克·奥巴马和 2024 年的特朗普。

鉴于各议题的具体评分差异以及衡量议题的数量，我们无法准确判断哪位总统或候任总统在其新任期内激发了最多的乐观情绪。然而，在2008年，奥巴马在11个可与特朗普进行比较的议题中，有8个获得了其他所有总统中最高的分数，这在本次报告评估的评分中，是迄今为止所有新任总统中得分最高的。

在当前的民调中，特朗普在两项议题上获得了新任总统的最高评价——控制非法移民和降低犯罪率。其他新任或现任总统，包括2016年的特朗普，在议题上得分最高的都不超过一项：

请参阅随附的 PDF，了解特朗普和所有前任总统的完整问题展望趋势，以及按党派 ID 和其他子群体显示特朗普当前评级结果的详细表格。

美国人对特朗普第二届政府可能取得的成就持谨慎态度，预测其成功领域与怀疑其成功领域大致相同。尽管如此，他们对特朗普在控制非法移民和降低犯罪方面的期望仍然很高——这既与他们对特朗普在其他问题上的期望有关，也与历史上的情况有关。与以往任何一位受评估的总统相比，预期他能在这些领域取得成功的美国人更多。尽管人们对特朗普避免国家陷入战争的能力的信心不如对他在其他几个目标上的信心那么强烈，但相信他能在这方面取得成功的美国人数量急剧增加，对于实现人们对他第二任期的期望可能至关重要。

实现目标或许是打造强大总统遗产的捷径，但在最意想不到的领域取得进展也可能产生影响。在这方面，改善教育、医疗、环境、种族关系和公众团结等国家状况，可以成为特朗普第二任期的关键目标。

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans have mixed expectations for what President-elect Donald Trump will accomplish in his second term, foreseeing success on seven policy goals while doubting he’ll achieve eight others.

Expectations are highest that Trump will control illegal immigration, which 68% of U.S. adults predict he’ll do. Smaller majorities believe he will reduce unemployment, keep the country safe from terrorism, improve the economy, keep the country out of war, cut people’s taxes or reduce the crime rate.

Conversely, majorities of Americans do not think Trump will heal political divisions in the country, improve the quality of the environment, improve the healthcare system, improve race relations, improve education, substantially reduce the federal budget deficit, improve conditions for minorities and the poor, or reduce the prices of groceries and other items.

The public is less clear in its outlook for Trump’s presidency on two issues -- improving the way the federal government works and increasing respect for the U.S. abroad. About half believe he will -- or he won’t -- accomplish either goal.

These results are from a Dec. 2-18 Gallup Poll in which 51% of Americans, slightly more than in December 2016, said they approve of the way Trump is handling the presidential transition.

Partisanship strongly influences Americans’ expectations for Trump’s accomplishments in his upcoming term.

Gallup also measured Americans’ expectations for Trump during the 2016 transition period, asking about 16 of the 17 issues rated today -- all but reducing prices.

Far more Americans now than in 2016 believe Trump will keep the nation out of war, rising 17 percentage points to 55%. By contrast, in 2016, the majority (57%) doubted he would keep the country out of war. This shift likely reflects Trump’s claims that the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars would not have occurred had he been president, that he will end both quickly, and that he started “no new wars” in his first term.

In addition, belief that he will control illegal immigration has increased nine points since 2016, and there has been an eight-point increase for reducing the crime rate and a six-point increase for improving race relations. Predictions for the latter still tilt negative, however.

Americans are less sure today than in 2016 that Trump will improve national conditions in the areas of healthcare and education, with the optimistic percentages slipping 12 and 10 points, respectively. As a result, whereas majorities of Americans were hopeful about Trump on these issues in 2016, the opposite is true today. There has also been a six-point decline to 33% in Trump’s rating for healing political divisions in the country.

Expectations for Trump in the other nine policy areas measured in both years haven’t changed materially. This includes the outlook for two goals Trump has prioritized by pledging to establish a department of government efficiency headed by American businessmen Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy: improving the way the federal government works and reducing the federal budget deficit.

Gallup has measured Americans’ issue predictions during the transition period for all incoming presidents since Ronald Reagan in 1980, as well as for three presidents entering a second term: George W. Bush in January 2005, Barack Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2024.

Given differences in the specific issues rated for each, along with the number of issues measured, it is not possible to say precisely which president or president-elect inspired the most optimism about his upcoming term. However, Obama in 2008 stands out for earning the highest scores of all other presidents on eight of the 11 issues for which comparisons to Trump are available. That is by far the largest proportion of record scores received by any incoming president among the ratings reviewed for this report.

In the current poll, Trump earns the highest rating of incoming presidents on two issues -- controlling illegal immigration and reducing the crime rate. Other incoming or returning presidents, including Trump in 2016, had the top score on no more than one issue:

See the accompanying PDF for the full issue-outlook trends for Trump and all prior presidents, plus detailed tabulations showing results by party ID and other subgroups for Trump’s current ratings.

Americans have a modest outlook for what the second Trump administration might achieve, predicting success in about as many areas as they doubt it will occur. Still, they have notably high expectations for him with respect to controlling illegal immigration and reducing crime -- both relative to their expectations for him on other issues and historically. More Americans anticipate he’ll succeed in these domains than did so for any other evaluated president. And although confidence in Trump's ability to keep the nation out of war is not as pronounced as confidence in him on several other objectives, the sharp increase in Americans believing he’ll prevail in this could be important to fulfilling expectations for his second term.

Achieving one's goals may be the straight path to a strong presidential legacy, but making progress in areas where it is least expected could also have an impact. In this regard, improving national conditions in education, healthcare, the environment, race relations and public unity could serve as key objectives for Trump's second term.

来源：非常道