越览（129）——精读博士论文的1.3供应链韧性研究综述

摘要：This issue of tweets will introduce 1.3 Overview of research on supplychain resilience of the doctoral thesis "Research on Industr

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“越览（129）——精读博士论文

《供应链网络结构视角下的产业链韧性研究》

的1.3供应链韧性研究综述”。

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1.3 Overview of research on industrial chain resilience

of "Yuelan (129) —— Intensive reading of

the doctoral dissertation

‘Research on the resilience of

thesupply chain from the perspective of

supply chain network structure’".

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一、内容摘要（Summary of content）

本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍博士论文《供应链网络结构视角下的产业链韧性研究》的1.3供应链韧性研究综述。

This issue of tweets will introduce 1.3 Overview of research on supplychain resilience of the doctoral thesis "Research on Industrial Chain Resilience from the Perspective of Supply Chain Network Structure" from three aspects: mind mapping, intensive reading content, and knowledge supplement.

二、思维导图（Mind mapping）

三、精读内容（Intensive reading content）

（一）供应链韧性的概念与测量（Concept and measurement of supply chain resilience）

当前不稳定和竞争激烈的商业环境对供应链管理提出了更高要求，特别是在低成本、高质量和全球客户覆盖的背景下。供应链韧性和脆弱性成为研究的前沿，尤其是在金融不稳定和自然、人为危害的影响下。最初，供应链韧性作为供应链脆弱性或风险管理的一个部分被研究，后来学者们逐渐明确了其概念，认为供应链韧性是指供应链应对突发事件的准备、响应和恢复能力。

The current unstable and competitive business environment has put forward higher requirements for supply chain management, especially in the context of low cost, high quality and global customer coverage. Supply chain resilience and vulnerability have become the forefront of research, especially under the influence of financial instability and natural and man-made hazards. Initially, supply chain resilience was studied as a part of supply chain vulnerability or risk management. Later, scholars gradually clarified its concept and believed that supply chain resilience refers to the supply chain's ability to prepare, respond and recover from emergencies.

（二）供应链韧性相关研究（Research on supply chain resilience）

作者首先介绍了全球化导致供应链跨越更长的距离和多个国家，增加了应对风险和中断的挑战。供应链中断已成为不可避免的现实，且“黑天鹅”事件（如2011年日本地震和2019年美国禁令影响华为）频繁发生，证明无论是区域内还是全球供应链，都可能随时面临不确定性和中断的风险。

The author first introduces how globalization has led to supply chains spanning longer distances and multiple countries, increasing the challenges of dealing with risks and disruptions. Supply chain disruptions have become an inevitable reality, and the frequent occurrence of "black swan" events (such as the 2011 Japanese earthquake and the 2019 US ban affecting Huawei) proves that both regional and global supply chains may face the risk of uncertainty and disruption at any time.

接着作者提到学者Ivanov（2018）指出，供应链网络的结构对中断的影响有重要作用，网络参数直接影响供应链的韧性。与分散节点的网络相比，集中节点的供应链更容易受到中断影响，尤其是当关键节点失效时，整个供应链会瘫痪。为研究供应链韧性，学者们开始分析网络拓扑结构，利用随机网络和不同类型的网络模型进行仿真，探索不同结构对韧性的影响。

The author then mentioned that scholar Ivanov (2018) pointed out that the structure of the supply chain network plays an important role in the impact of disruptions, and network parameters directly affect the resilience of the supply chain. Compared with networks with dispersed nodes, supply chains with concentrated nodes are more susceptible to disruptions, especially when key nodes fail, the entire supply chain will be paralyzed. In order to study supply chain resilience, scholars began to analyze network topology, use random networks and different types of network models for simulation, and explore the impact of different structures on resilience.

社会网络分析已成为研究供应链网络结构的重要方法，许多学者将其应用于供应链绩效、牛鞭效应和灾难性中断的研究。现有文献表明，社会网络分析与其他方法（如结构方程模型、计量模型等）结合，广泛应用于供应链研究，数据来源多样，包括问卷调查、数据库和企业数据。然而，目前的研究存在两个主要问题：一是多企业构成的产业链结构未被充分考虑，无法准确反映供应链的复杂性；二是未能有效分析企业在供应链中的位置对风险事件传播的影响，导致研究结果与实际情况存在偏差。

Social network analysis has become an important method for studying the network structure of supply chains. Many scholars have applied it to the study of supply chain performance, bullwhip effect and catastrophic disruption. Existing literature shows that social network analysis is widely used in supply chain research in combination with other methods (such as structural equation models, econometric models, etc.), and the data sources are diverse, including questionnaires, databases and corporate data. However, there are two main problems in current research: first, the industrial chain structure composed of multiple enterprises is not fully considered and cannot accurately reflect the complexity of the supply chain; second, the impact of the position of enterprises in the supply chain on the spread of risk events has not been effectively analyzed, resulting in a deviation between the research results and the actual situation.

最后，作者介绍了本研究的首要任务是构建一个完整真实的产业供应链网络。国内学者通常使用国泰安数据构建供应链网络，但该数据存在两大不足：无法识别真实企业名称，且仅提供前五大供应商客户关系，导致数据不完整。相比之下，国外学者尝试使用彭博数据库，该数据库提供全球超过12万家企业与供应商及客户之间的历史关系数据，能够更全面地刻画产业链结构。基于彭博数据库，结合社会网络分析方法和仿真模拟，本研究计划构建汽车产业供应链网络，分析其结构特征，识别关键节点，并探讨供应链韧性的提升策略。

Finally, the author introduced that the primary task of this study is to build a complete and real industrial supply chain network. Domestic scholars usually use Guotai An data to build supply chain networks, but this data has two major shortcomings: it is impossible to identify real company names, and only provides the top five supplier-customer relationships, resulting in incomplete data. In contrast, foreign scholars have tried to use the Bloomberg database, which provides historical relationship data between more than 120,000 companies and suppliers and customers worldwide, and can more comprehensively portray the structure of the industrial chain. Based on the Bloomberg database, combined with social network analysis methods and simulation simulation, this study plans to build an automotive industry supply chain network, analyze its structural characteristics, identify key nodes, and explore strategies to improve supply chain resilience.

四、知识补充（Knowledge supplement）

供应链牛鞭效应是指在供应链中，由于需求波动的放大效应，导致从零售商到制造商之间的库存和订单量波动越来越大的现象。这种效应会导致整个供应链的效率降低，库存增加，成本上升，并且影响供应链的协调性和响应能力。简单来说，牛鞭效应就像是牛鞭的摆动，需求的轻微变化在供应链上游被放大，造成更大的波动。

The bullwhip effect in the supply chain refers to the phenomenon that the inventory and order volume fluctuations from retailers to manufacturers in the supply chain are getting larger and larger due to the amplification effect of demand fluctuations. This effect will lead to reduced efficiency of the entire supply chain, increased inventory, increased costs, and affect the coordination and responsiveness of the supply chain. Simply put, the bullwhip effect is like the swing of a bullwhip, and slight changes in demand are amplified upstream in the supply chain, causing greater fluctuations.

（一）牛鞭效应的产生原因（Causes of the bullwhip effect）

需求预测误差：供应链各层通常会根据下游需求进行需求预测和补货计划，但由于市场需求的波动，预测往往存在偏差。如果某一层级的企业根据误差进行过度补货或调整，需求的波动就会向上游传递，逐渐放大。

Demand forecasting errors: Each layer of the supply chain usually makes demand forecasts and replenishment plans based on downstream demand, but due to fluctuations in market demand, forecasts are often biased. If a company at a certain level over-replenishes or adjusts based on the error, the fluctuation in demand will be transmitted upstream and gradually amplified.

订单批量化：许多公司习惯于以批量方式进行订单，这种批量订货方式虽然在短期内可能带来价格优惠，但却可能导致需求波动被放大。每次批量订单的变化都会加剧供应链上下游之间的波动。

Order batching: Many companies are accustomed to placing orders in batches. Although this batch ordering method may bring price discounts in the short term, it may cause demand fluctuations to be amplified. Each change in batch orders will exacerbate fluctuations between upstream and downstream supply chains.

提前采购：在某些情况下，供应链成员为避免未来的供货短缺，可能会提前大量采购原材料或产品。这种提前采购的行为也可能使需求的波动加剧。

Pre-purchase: In some cases, supply chain members may purchase large quantities of raw materials or products in advance to avoid future supply shortages. This pre-purchase behavior may also exacerbate demand fluctuations.

供应链信息不对称：供应链各方之间信息传递不完全，导致上游企业无法及时了解到下游的实际需求。这种信息不对称会导致需求波动被放大。

Information asymmetry in the supply chain: Incomplete information transmission between parties in the supply chain results in upstream companies being unable to timely understand the actual demand of downstream companies. This information asymmetry can lead to amplified demand fluctuations.

价格波动：如果供应链中出现价格波动（例如促销或折扣），消费者和供应商可能会调整购买行为，进一步加剧需求波动。

Price volatility: If price fluctuations occur in the supply chain (e.g., promotions or discounts), consumers and suppliers may adjust their purchasing behavior, further exacerbating demand fluctuations.

（二）牛鞭效应的后果（Consequences of the bullwhip effect）

库存过多或过少：上游企业为了应对需求波动可能会增加库存，导致库存成本上升；而下游企业可能因为没有准确的库存信息而面临缺货问题。

Too much or too little inventory: Upstream companies may increase inventory to cope with demand fluctuations, resulting in higher inventory costs; while downstream companies may face stock-outs due to a lack of accurate inventory information.

成本增加：频繁的订单波动导致了生产、运输、仓储等成本的增加，特别是在生产能力、运输资源等固定成本上，容易造成资源浪费。

Increased costs: Frequent order fluctuations lead to increased costs for production, transportation, warehousing, etc., especially fixed costs such as production capacity and transportation resources, which can easily lead to waste of resources.

供应链响应时间延长：需求波动的加剧使得供应链企业不得不花费更多时间来进行调整和反应，从而增加了交货的周期。

Increased supply chain response time: Increased demand fluctuations force supply chain companies to spend more time to adjust and respond, thereby increasing delivery cycles.

协调困难：供应链各方的协调变得更加困难，彼此之间的信任和合作受损，可能导致供应链整体效率下降。

Difficulties in coordination: Coordination among supply chain parties becomes more difficult, and trust and cooperation between them are damaged, which may lead to a decline in the overall efficiency of the supply chain.

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