摘要：读过《易经》的人都有个惊人发现：若把九九八十一卦、386爻辞视作人的一生，逐一品读后统计，竟是凶多吉少！这可不是简单的文字游戏，它像一记重锤，敲醒我们对人生的认知——原来，人生路上布满“暗礁”，稍不留神就可能遭遇“触礁”危机。
读过《易经》的人都有个惊人发现：若把九九八十一卦、386爻辞视作人的一生，逐一品读后统计，竟是凶多吉少！这可不是简单的文字游戏，它像一记重锤，敲醒我们对人生的认知——原来，人生路上布满“暗礁”，稍不留神就可能遭遇“触礁”危机。
悲剧的真相：没有偶然的必然
疾病、变故、车祸、意外……这些我们眼中的悲剧，真的是毫无逻辑的偶然吗？非也！古希腊悲剧中，俄狄浦斯王再怎么挣扎，也逃不过“弑父娶母”的命运；莎士比亚笔下的哈姆雷特，在复仇之路上，一步错步步错，最终走向毁灭。这些故事看似充满偶然，实则暗藏必然。
在现实生活中，也是如此。比如，有人因长期熬夜、饮食不规律，最终患上重病。这看似是突然降临的灾难，实则是长期不良生活习惯的必然结果。所有事情都合乎逻辑，所有人或许都是正常甚至善良的，但事情却无可挽回地逐步走向悲剧，没有幸存者，这才是真正的悲剧。因为，偶然性在这里没有一席之地，每一个偶然，都是潜伏已久的必然。
复合概率衰减效应：人生的“概率陷阱”
统计学上的常态分布告诉我们，人的一生完全规避所有风险，就像处于概率分布的尾端，可能性趋近于零。这背后，隐藏着一个关键概念——复合概率衰减效应。
什么是复合概率衰减效应呢？简单来说，就是多个独立事件同时发生的概率会呈指数级下降。打个比方，你能力超强又心细如发，正常情况下有100%的概率不犯错。但当你又忙又累、事务繁多时，一点不错的概率可能就只剩下0.1%，也就是千分之一。
这就好比玩俄罗斯轮盘赌，每一颗子弹代表一个风险因素。刚开始，可能只有一颗子弹，你觉得自己很安全。但随着生活压力的增加，子弹越来越多，风险也越来越大。当多个风险因素同时出现时，你“中弹”的概率就会大幅上升。
以开车为例，正常情况下，你遵守交通规则，注意力集中，发生事故的概率很低。但如果你在疲劳驾驶、酒后驾车、超速行驶等多个风险因素叠加的情况下开车，那么发生事故的概率就会呈几何级数增长。据统计，疲劳驾驶使发生事故的可能性增加数倍；酒后驾车更是让事故风险飙升。当这些因素同时出现时，后果不堪设想。
撞南墙的代价：被撞得面目全非
既然人生充满风险，那我们是该靠自己撞南墙获得经验，还是提前规避风险呢？答案显然是后者。
如果仅靠自己撞南墙获得人生经验，那么很容易被撞得面目全非。就像初出茅庐的创业者，没有充分的市场调研和风险评估，仅凭一腔热血就投身商海。结果，可能刚一出发就遭遇资金链断裂、市场竞争激烈等问题，最终血本无归。
曾经有一位年轻的创业者，看到共享经济火热，便盲目跟风创办了一家共享单车公司。他没有考虑到当地的交通状况、用户需求以及竞争对手的情况，只是简单地模仿其他成功企业的模式。结果，公司运营不到一年就倒闭了，不仅自己的积蓄打了水漂，还欠了一屁股债。这就是典型的靠撞南墙获得经验，结果被撞得头破血流。
守规的价值：逢凶化吉的密码
那么，我们该如何规避人生的“暗礁”呢？答案就是：规规矩矩做人，踏踏实实做事。
“你我皆凡人，守规值千金。”遵守规则，不是墨守成规，而是对风险的敬畏。就像交通规则，它看似限制了我们的自由，但实际上是为了保障我们的安全。当我们遵守交通规则时，就能大大降低发生交通事故的风险。
在工作中，遵守公司的规章制度，认真对待每一项任务，也能让我们避免很多不必要的麻烦。比如，一个程序员如果严格按照代码规范编写程序，就能减少出现漏洞的概率，提高程序的质量和稳定性。
历史上，也有很多守规而逢凶化吉的例子。三国时期的诸葛亮，一生谨守规矩，治军严谨。在街亭之战中，马谡违背军令，导致街亭失守。而诸葛亮却因为一直遵守军纪，在后来的战争中能够有条不紊地指挥作战，最终保住了蜀汉的基业。
总结：驾驭人生之舟
人生就像一场航行，充满了未知的风险和挑战。《易经》中的爻辞提醒我们，人生的道路上凶多吉少；复合概率衰减效应告诉我们，多个风险因素叠加会让我们的处境更加危险；而靠撞南墙获得经验，只会让我们遍体鳞伤。
只有守规，才能让我们在人生的海洋中避开暗礁，驶向成功的彼岸。让我们牢记“规规矩矩做人，踏踏实实做事”的教诲，用智慧和勇气驾驭人生之舟，逢凶化吉，遇难成祥！
朋友们，人生的航程已经开启，你准备好了吗？让我们携手共进，在守规的道路上，书写属于我们的精彩人生！
作者简介：梁世杰 中医高年资主治医师，本科学历，从事中医临床工作24年，积累了较丰富的临床经验。师从首都医科大学附属北京中医院肝病科主任医师、著名老中医陈勇，侍诊多载，深得器重，尽得真传！擅用“商汤经方分类疗法”、专病专方结合“焦树德学术思想”“关幼波十纲辨证”学术思想治疗疑难杂症为特色。现任北京树德堂中医研究院研究员，北京中医药薪火传承新3+3工程—焦树德门人（陈勇）传承工作站研究员，国际易联易学与养生专委会常务理事，中国中医药研究促进会焦树德学术传承专业委员会委员，中国药文化研究会中医药慢病防治分会首批癌症领域入库专家。荣获2020年中国中医药研究促进会仲景医学分会举办的第八届医圣仲景南阳论坛“经方名医”荣誉称号。2023年首届京津冀“扁鹊杯”燕赵医学研究主题征文优秀奖获得者。事迹入选《当代科学家》杂志、《中华英才》杂志。
Liang Shijie: Escaping Life's "Dark Reef" - Survival Wisdom From The Interpretation of the Early Scriptures to Probability
Anyone who has read the Interpretation of the Eighteenth Century has made a surprising discovery: If you consider the ninety-one gossips and 386 aphorisms as human life, count them one by one after reading them, and they turn out to be very bad and very bad. This is not a simple word game. It is a heavy hammer that awakens our understanding of life - it turns out that the road to life is full of "reefs," and if we don't pay attention, we may encounter a "reef" crisis.
The truth of the tragedy: there is no accidental certainty
Sickness, changes, car accidents, accidents... Are these tragedies, as we see them, really logical accidents? No! In the ancient Greek tragedy, no matter how Oedipus the King struggled, he could not escape the fate of "killing father and marrying mother"; Shakespeare's Hamlet, on the road to revenge, takes a wrong step and ends up in ruins. These stories seem to be full of chance, but they hide the inevitable.
In real life, the same is true. For example, some people end up seriously ill because they stay up late for a long time and eat irregularly. This may seem like a sudden disaster, but it is the inevitable result of long-term bad habits. Everything is logical, everyone may be normal or even good, but things are moving irrevocably towards tragedy, and without survivors, that is the true tragedy. For chance has no place here, and every chance is a certainty that has been lurking for a long time.
The compound probability decay effect: the "probability trap" of life
The statistical normal distribution tells us that a person completely avoids all risks throughout his or her life, like being at the end of the probability distribution, where the probability is close to zero. Behind this lies a key concept - the compound probability decay effect.
What is the compound probability decay effect? Simply put, the probability of multiple independent events occurring at the same time declines exponentially. For example, you are extremely capable and deeply thoughtful, and normally there is a 100% chance of not making a mistake. But when you're busy, tired and busy, the probability of a little goodness is probably only 0.1 percent, or one in a thousand.
It's like playing Russian roulette, where each bullet represents a risk factor. In the beginning, there might be only one bullet, and you feel safe. But as the stress of life increases, there are more bullets and the risks are increasing. When multiple risk factors occur at the same time, your chances of being shot increase significantly.
Take driving as an example. Under normal circumstances, you follow the traffic rules, pay attention, and the probability of an accident is very low. But if you are driving in the case of fatigue, drunk driving, speeding and other risk factors, then the probability of accidents will show a geometric progression. According to statistics, fatigued driving increases the likelihood of accidents several times. Drink driving increases the risk of accidents. When these factors occur simultaneously, the consequences are unimaginable.
The cost of hitting the South Wall: being knocked out of sight
Since life is full of risks, should we get the experience by hitting the wall on our own or avoid the risks ahead of time? The answer is obviously the latter.
If you only get life experience by hitting the wall yourself, you can easily be hit entirely differently. Just like a fledgling entrepreneur, without sufficient market research and risk assessment, only with a cavity passion to join the business. As a result, it may encounter problems such as the breakdown of the capital chain and fierce market competition as soon as it leaves, and eventually lose its fortune.
There was once a young entrepreneur who saw the popularity of the sharing economy, so he blindly followed the trend and started a bike sharing company. He doesn't take into account local traffic conditions, user needs or the situation of competitors, simply copying the models of other successful businesses. As a result, the company collapsed after less than a year of operation, not only losing its own savings, but also incurring a huge debt. This is a typical experience gained by hitting the southern wall and being hit with a broken head and bloodstream.
The Value of Compliance: The Code for Prosperity
So how do we avoid life's "dark rocks"? The answer is: behave in a manner and do things faithfully.
"You and I are all human beings. Respecting the rules is worth a thousand dollars." Compliance with the rules is not adherence to the rules, but a fear of risk. Like the rules of the road, it seems to limit our freedom, but in reality it is meant to keep us safe. When we obey the traffic rules, we can greatly reduce the risk of accidents.
At work, following company rules and regulations and taking every task seriously can also help us avoid a lot of unnecessary hassles. For example, a programmer who writes a program strictly in accordance with the code specification can reduce the probability of a vulnerability and improve the quality and stability of the program.
Historically, there have been many examples of observing the rules and turning a bad situation into a good one. During the Three Kingdoms, Shih Liang lived his life strictly by following the rules and governing the army strictly. During the battle of the Street Pavilion, the horsemen broke the orders of the army, causing the Street Periphery to lose. However, because he always adhered to military discipline, he was able to command operations methodically in the later wars, and ultimately saved the foundation of Shu Han.
Summary: Navigating the Boat of Life
Life is like a voyage, full of unknown risks and challenges. The phrases in the Interpretation of the Early Scriptures remind us that there are many evils and few goods on the road to life. The compound probability decay effect tells us that the combination of multiple risk factors makes us more at risk. And gaining experience by hitting the southern wall will only leave us bruised.
Only by following the rules will we be able to avoid the reefs in the ocean of life and sail to the other side of success. Let us remember the teaching of "behave properly and do things faithfully," and use wisdom and courage to navigate life's boats, turn a bad situation into a good one, and turn a life into a happy one!
Friends, the voyage of life has begun. Are you ready? Let us work together to write the wonderful life that belongs to us on the road to compliance.
Author Bio: Liang Shijie is a senior medical practitioner in traditional Chinese medicine with an undergraduate degree. He has been engaged in traditional medicine clinical work for 24 years and has accumulated a wealth of clinical experience. Following Chen Yong, chief physician of liver disease at Beijing Traditional Medicine Hospital, affiliated with Capital Medical University, and renowned old Chinese medicine, he has been treated for many years and received great attention. He specializes in the treatment of difficult diseases using "conversational traditional therapy" and special treatments combined with the academic ideas of Jiao Shude and Guan Yubo's ten-level diagnosis.He is currently a researcher at the Shude Tang TCM Research Institute in Beijing, a fellow at the new 3 + 3 project of traditional Chinese medicine flame inheritance in Beijing - a scholar at the inheritance workstation of Jiao Shude's protégés (Chen Yong),He is a standing committee member of the International Expert Committee on E-learning and Health Care, a member of the Jiao Shude Academic Heritage Special Committee of the Chinese Association for the Advancement of Chinese Medicine Research, and the first cancer specialist to be included in the chapter of the Chinese Pharmaceutical Culture Research Association. Won the 2020 China Association for the Promotion of Traditional Chinese Medicine Zhongjing Medical Branch held the eighth session of the Medical Saint Zhongjing Nanyang Forum "Classic Prescription Famous Doctor" honorary title. The winner of the first Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei "Pingui Cup" Yanzhao Medical Research Essay Award in 2023. His work was featured in the journal Current Scientist and the journal Chinese Talent.
来源：首都专家梁世杰一点号
