摘要：Editor's Note:After a decade of transformative infrastructure projects, what's next for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? Can it

Editor's Note:After a decade of transformative infrastructure projects, what's next for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? Can its success in infrastructure be replicated in other sectors? In fact, this expansion is already underway. This series titled "Building Lasting Value in Belt and Road Cooperation" gathers insights from top scholars and analysts on how the BRI is broadening into areas like green tech, smart cities and beyond, and what this means for the future of global trade and development.

By Margit Molnar

Lead: A decade on, the Belt and Road Initiative has already reshaped global trade, but much of its potential remains untapped. Smarter regulation and strategic planning could supercharge the initiative, ushering in a new era of inclusive global development.

Since its inception, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a great idea, promising benefits for all participants through greater trade and investment integration facilitated by new infrastructure. A dozen years after the initiative's launch, it is useful to take stock of where tangible results have been achieved and to identify areas that still hold great potential. This article will not delve into quantitative aspects but instead focus on the remaining unexploited potential of the original initiative.

Trade and investment can be highly beneficial for participating countries, as they open up new markets and facilitate the exchange of ideas and technologies. China itself benefited immensely from integration into global value chains and becoming “the world's factory” in past decades. As China's economy has advanced rapidly and its technology has caught up with global leaders, some of its processes in international supply chains are now moving to other countries where production costs are lower. This trend aligns with the development of BRI partner countries, which opens up new market potential and opportunities for growth.

The BRI consists of two main components: six land-based economic corridors connected by road, rail, energy and digital infrastructure, and the Maritime Silk Road, which links a series of ports across oceanic trade routes. Judging from the data, trade and investment integration has significantly strengthened since the launch of the BRI, though it is hard to tell exactly to what extent this is due to the initiative and what would have happened even without it.

An aerial drone photo taken on Sept. 25, 2024 shows a section of the Chinese-invested Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville Expressway in Kampong Speu province, Cambodia. [Cambodian PPSHV Expressway Co., Ltd./Handout via Xinhua]

BRI-related infrastructure projects are mushrooming around the globe, contributing to improved connectivity for remote regions. This aspect of the BRI alone has lifted living standards by including more regions into the arteries of global trade and investment, boosting the growth of participating developing countries by several percentage points.

Some projects perform below expectations due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and other issues. So it is critical to conduct thorough cost-benefit analysis before implementation to ensure their long-term viability and economic value.

However, an even more appealing aspect of the BRI is regulatory harmonization, though progress on this front has been currently limited. Beyond cuts in tariffs and opening up to investment, the harmonization of standards and regulations across countries would make it easier for goods, services and knowledge to cross borders and be shared by a larger number of people.

For example, it's envisaged that an inventor in one of the participating countries could have his or her invention recognized and protected in all the other countries, be it a patent, a copyright, an industrial design or any other form of intellectual property. While this is just a small example, the scope for regulatory harmonization is virtually endless: it could cover product standards, health and safety regulations, certification and more.

Large-scale harmonization of regulatory systems could yield significant economic growth as infrastructure connectivity has been improved and trade and investment flows increased. This is due to the potentially high efficiency-boosting impact of removing such barriers.

Even though this process may be cumbersome, as a large number of laws and regulations would need to be changed, the prospect of substantial gains would at least justify kickstarting the regulatory harmonization effort.

A certain degree of regulatory harmonization is a prerequisite for stronger linkages through energy and digital networks (as envisaged in the Digital Silk Road Initiative). Yet, as both areas are closely linked to national security, governments and other stakeholders of participating countries must get involved to address large-scale harmonization and integration.

This photo taken on Nov. 26, 2022 shows main gate of an underwater tunnel in Chattogram, Bangladesh. The underwater tunnel in Bangladesh built by a Chinese company has marked the civil works completion of its south tube. [Photo/Xinhua]

On the energy front, collaboration in the form of exchanging energy in countries with differing peak times or sharing gas or oil storage capacity for strategic reserves is quite common. However, the benefits of greater collaboration through better interconnection and upgraded and extended grids are still to be exploited. Energy-poor regions with abundant renewable potential could become energy exporters if they are connected and the relevant regulations are in place.

On the digital front, there are still no international rules or standards for information or data transfer, which would be needed for increased flows allowed by the expansion and upgrading of digital infrastructure. Meanwhile, simple access to digital infrastructure could improve the productivity of people and firms not previously connected.

An additional aspect is using satellite technologies to monitor weather conditions and developments and share that data. This could help prepare for adverse weather events and hence reduce their damage. Building smart cities is another strength China could share with countries farther from the digital frontier.

The BRI also provides a framework that could potentially be used to strengthen the rule of law. As at least a dozen participants are not yet members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the initiative could facilitate the establishment of rule-based trading systems in those countries. Mastery of international trade rules could accelerate their entry into the WTO, opening up new opportunities for growth and development.

To sum up, beyond the often-cited tangible benefits of the BRI — such as increased trade and investment flows and infrastructure projects — the initiative's unexploited potential is even larger. Beyond cutting tariffs and opening up to foreign investment, other barriers to market entry and business operations, both for foreign and domestic players, must be removed to fully leverage integration.

Additionally, harmonizing safety and quality standards as well as regulatory systems would enable even greater benefits from the flow of goods, services and knowledge — whether by land, sea or air, through grids, pipelines or digital networks. Finally, strengthening rule-based trading systems is an added bonus for both current and prospective participants.

Margit Molnar, head of the China Desk at the OECD, authored this article. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the views of the OECD.

来源：中国网