摘要：The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review（《日内瓦风险与保险评论》，简称GRIR）是由日内瓦协会（The Geneva Association）出版的学术期刊，同时也是欧洲风险与保险经济学家协会（European Group o
声明：本系列文章基于原期刊目录和摘要内容整理而得，仅限于读者交流学习。如有侵权，请联系删除。
期刊介绍：
The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review（《日内瓦风险与保险评论》，简称GRIR）是由日内瓦协会（The Geneva Association）出版的学术期刊，同时也是欧洲风险与保险经济学家协会（European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists）的官方期刊。GRIR的研究范围广泛，包括保险产品和市场的经济学、不确定性下的决策理论、个人、公司和社会的风险分担或风险缓解机制。特别关注与风险分担和缓解机制相关的市场失灵问题，例如由信息摩擦和激励问题引起的市场失灵，以及政府在通过监管或社会保险提供风险管理方面的作用。期刊的出版周期为每年两期，分别在3月和9月发布。
本期看点：
●现有个体的不确定性偏好测度的预测力有限。不确定性及其影响是经济政策制定的关键考量。
●基于结构模型估计表明，健康保险虽能通过提升医疗支出对寿命产生积极影响，但该影响程度在统计上并不显著。
●基于德国私人健康保险市场的分析，尽管佣金上限政策确实降低了支付给中介的佣金水平，有效抑制了替代性保险市场的保单置换现象，但却未能显著降低健康保险公司的总获客成本，保险公司仍可轻易通过其他渠道规避监管约束。
●通过考虑个体预防措施相互作用的模型，研究发现，预防措施可能呈现供给不足或过度供给的状态。应用于COVID-19感染风险分析，论证了政策干预（如强制佩戴口罩）的必要性。
●健康对自我防护的影响尤其取决于个体属于消费健康关联偏好型还是关联厌恶型，这一关键发现揭示了健康风险决策中时间维度与偏好结构的交互机制。
※ 本期目录
●Measuring uncertainty preferences: what we know and what we need
●Does health insurance extend life expectancy? Evidence from a structural estimation
●Lowering acquisition costs with a commission cap? Evidence from the German private health insurance market
●Interaction in prevention: a general theory and an application to COVID-19 pandemic
●Self-protection against a health risk and saving: an analysis of income and health effects
Measuring uncertainty preferences: what we know and what we need
不确定性偏好的测度：已知与待解
作者
Martin G. Kocher （维也纳大学）
摘要：We often want to predict individual behavior under uncertainty in relevant decision-making settings based on the elicitation of individual uncertainty attitudes. This paper surveys different approaches to measure uncertainty preferences and studies that correlate measured preferences with decision-making behavior in different domains such as finance or insurance. We argue that the predictive power of elicited preferences in many studies is limited and suggest several potential ways forward for future research.
我们常常希望通过测度个体的不确定性态度，来预测其在相关决策情境中面对不确定性时的个体行为。本文系统梳理了测量不确定性偏好的不同方法，并综述了将所测偏好与金融、保险等不同领域决策行为相关联的研究。我们认为，现有许多研究中偏好测度的预测力有限，并据此为未来研究提出了若干潜在的推进方向。
文中要点：首先，金融监管与消费者保护要求对客户的不确定性态度进行精准测度。行为经济学可提供比当前实践应用更为丰富的方法论与概念框架，但尚未得到充分运用。其次，不确定性是经济活动的核心要素，然而在现实经济状况的预测与评估中，这一要素至今仍未得到充分体现。第三，不确定性及其影响是经济政策制定的关键考量。
Does health insurance extend life expectancy? Evidence from a structural estimation
健康保险能否延长预期寿命？基于结构模型估计的实证证据
作者
Pu Liao（中央财经大学），Jinhao Liu （中央财经大学）
摘要：We apply the simulated method of moments to a lifecycle model to infer the impact of health insurance on life expectancy. The model features endogenous health risks, which are determined jointly by the natural law and one’s own decisions of medical care expenditures. Individual’s optimal decisions of consumption, saving, and medical care expenditure are solved, and life expectancies are calculated in the scenarios with and without health insurance. The comparison result shows that health insurance has a positive impact on life expectancy through its positive impact on medical care expenditures, but this impact is not quantitatively significant.
本研究采用模拟矩方法分析生命周期模型，用来推断健康保险对预期寿命的影响。该模型包含内生健康风险设定，其风险水平由自然生理规律与个人医疗支出决策共同决定。通过求解个体在消费、储蓄及医疗支出的最优决策，我们分别计算了有无健康保险两种情景下的预期寿命。对比结果显示：健康保险虽能通过提升医疗支出对寿命产生积极影响，但该影响程度在统计上并不显著。
Lowering acquisition costs with a commission cap? Evidence from the German private health insurance market
降低获客成本：佣金上限政策的效果评估——来自德国私人健康保险市场的证据
作者
Kylie A. Braegelmann（霍恩海姆大学），Jörg Schiller（霍恩海姆大学）
摘要：When consumers are neither particularly financially literate nor price sensitive, insurers have a strong incentive to pay high commissions to intermediaries for profitable new business. As a part of cost reduction regulation in the German private substitutive health insurance market, a commission cap and a minimum cancelation liability period for insurance intermediaries were introduced in 2012. Despite the fact that the commission cap lowered commissions paid to intermediaries, we provide evidence that the reform was only partly effective, as it led to a decrease in reshuffling of new business in the substitutive market, but did not significantly reduce total acquisition costs of health insurers. Our findings confirm that cost regulation is tricky and can be easily circumvented by insurers, as commission payments are only a part of total acquisition costs.
当消费者既不具备较高的金融素养又对价格不敏感时，保险公司有强烈动机通过支付高额佣金来激励中介机构获取盈利性新业务。作为德国替代性私人健康保险市场成本管控改革的一部分，监管机构于2012年推出了保险中介佣金上限与最低解约责任期的双重规定。实证研究表明：尽管佣金上限政策确实降低了支付给中介的佣金水平，但改革仅取得部分成效——虽然有效抑制了替代性保险市场的保单置换现象，却未能显著降低健康保险公司的总获客成本。这一发现印证了成本监管的复杂性：由于佣金支出仅构成总获客成本的一部分，保险公司仍可轻易通过其他渠道规避监管约束。
Interaction in prevention: a general theory and an application to COVID-19 pandemic
预防措施中的相互作用：一个通用理论及其在COVID-19大防控中的应用
作者
Pietro Battiston（比萨大学），Mario Menegatti（比萨大学）
摘要：We study a model introducing interactions in agents’ prevention effort, including both the case where agents’ efforts reinforce each others and the case where they are conflicting. We characterize best response functions, distinguishing the case of strategic complementarity and the case of strategic substitutability, and determine the features of Nash equilibria in both cases. We find conditions for under- and over-provision of prevention compared to its socially optimal level. Finally, we specialize our model to describe the risk of COVID-19 infection. We show the features of contagion are consistent with the existence of asymmetric equilibria and we provide arguments in favor of policy interventions, such as making face masks mandatory, despite the possibility that they reduce some agents’ effort.
本研究构建了一个考虑个体预防措施相互作用的模型，其中既包含预防努力相互强化的情形，也包含相互冲突的情形。我们通过刻画最佳反应函数，区分了策略互补性与策略替代性两种情形，并确定了两种情况下纳什均衡的特征。研究发现，与社会最优水平相比，预防措施可能呈现供给不足或过度供给的状态。最后，我们将模型应用于COVID-19感染风险分析，证明病毒传播特性与不对称均衡的存在具有一致性，并论证了政策干预（如强制佩戴口罩）的必要性——尽管这些措施可能会降低部分个体的防护努力，但整体上仍具有积极意义。
Self-protection against a health risk and saving: an analysis of income and health effects
防范健康风险与储蓄行为：一项关于收入与健康效应的综合分析
作者
Jimin Hong（韩国崇实大学），Kyungsun Kim（韩国保险研究院）
摘要：This study considers both an atemporal (one period) and an intertemporal (two period, with savings) model to examine the effects of income and health on self-protection. We identify clear conditions on risk preferences which imply the normality (or inferiority) of self-protection; these conditions are essentially the same in both the atemporal and intertemporal models. The effects of health on self-protection are more complicated: dynamic versus static matters, and the effects depend, in particular, on whether the individual is correlation (between health and consumption) loving or correlation averse.
本研究通过构建单期静态与跨期动态（含储蓄的两期）模型，系统考察收入与健康水平对自我防护行为的影响。我们明确了导致自我防护行为呈现正常品（或低档品）特征的风险偏好条件，并证明这些条件在静态与跨期模型中具有一致性。健康对自我防护的影响更为复杂：动态与静态情境下结论各异，尤其取决于个体属于消费健康关联偏好型还是关联厌恶型，这一关键发现揭示了健康风险决策中时间维度与偏好结构的交互机制。
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