摘要：Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the core indicator for measuring traditional economic development, is inherently constrained by its
From GDP to CNP-WAM: Evaluation Reform——Qualitative Reconstruction of Economic Development Paradigms
因为这个标题太长了放不下，所以用现在的简化版）
Abstract
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the core indicator for measuring traditional economic development, is inherently constrained by its "production-oriented" essence. This limitation results in failures to assess national well-being, systemic efficiency, and long-term development potential, rendering it inadequate to meet the demands of high-quality development in the contemporary era. Based on qualitative research methods, including theoretical reflection and literature analysis, this paper systematically constructs and elaborates on the theoretical framework of the Comprehensive National Power and Well-being Assessment Model (CNP-WAM), exploring its logical breakthroughs relative to the traditional GDP paradigm. The findings indicate that CNP-WAM, with "effective economic strength, systemic operational efficiency, and future development potential" as its three core theoretical pillars, accomplishes three qualitative transformations: from "digital growth" to "real well-being", from "static accounting" to "dynamic early warning", and from "single-dimensional evaluation" to "systematic integration". This theoretical reconstruction not only aligns with the latest advancements in welfare economics and development economics but also establishes a comprehensive theoretical system characterized by "value orientation - systemic logic - dimensional expansion - method integration", thereby providing core theoretical support for the innovation of economic development assessment paradigm.
Key words
GDP paradigm; CNP-WAM model; economic development assessment; theoretical construction; national well-being
1. Introduction
Since Simon Kuznets proposed the concept of GDP in the 1930s, this production flow-centered accounting indicator has gradually become the "universal language" for measuring economic development globally. Its theoretical foundation stems from the theory of production value in classical economics, with the core logic simplifying economic development to the quantitative growth of market value, while ignoring the fundamental goal of "human development". Robert F. Kennedy once sharply pointed out that GDP "measures everything except that which makes life worthwhile", a judgment that accurately reveals the core theoretical dilemma of the traditional assessment paradigm—it fails to reflect the fairness of income distribution, the value of non-market activities, or measure ecological and environmental costs, leading to a serious disconnect between economic development and national well-being.
Since the late 20th century, academics and policymakers have explored alternative indicators such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and the OECD Better Life Index (BLI), but these indicators have significant theoretical limitations: HDI only focuses on three dimensions (health, education, income) and lacks consideration of economic system efficiency and future potential; although BLI covers multiple dimensions, it emphasizes subjective perceptions and lacks a unified theoretical core and systematic logical framework, essentially serving as a supplement rather than a replacement for GDP. Against this backdrop, the theoretical construction of the Comprehensive National Power and Well-being Assessment Model (CNP-WAM) holds important academic value. By sorting out its theoretical origins, core logic, and breakthrough dimensions, combined with typical cases to verify the practical value of the theory, this paper aims to provide solid theoretical support for the transformation of economic development assessment paradigm.
2. Theoretical Defects of the GDP Paradigm: In-depth Reflection Based on the Essence of Development
2.1 Misalignment of Theoretical Foundation: Production-Oriented Value Orientation
The theoretical foundation of GDP lies in the theory of production value in classical economics, whose core logic equates economic development with the total market value created by production activities, essentially a "production-oriented" quantitative theory. This theoretical orientation instrumentalizes "human development", regarding national well-being as a byproduct of production growth, thereby simplifying the value goal of development to digital growth. In terms of theoretical essence, GDP accounting follows the principle of "primacy of flow", treating luxury consumption and basic livelihood consumption, disaster reconstruction expenditure and normal production investment equally, while ignoring the heterogeneous contributions of different production activities and consumption behaviors to national well-being. For example, a country may achieve high GDP growth through large-scale infrastructure investment, but the actual disposable income of residents grows slowly. This practical paradox of "growth without development" is a direct manifestation of the misalignment of GDP's theoretical foundation.
2.2 Lack of Systematic Cognition: Mechanistic Analytical Framework
The GDP paradigm is based on a mechanistic economic perspective, viewing the economic system as a linear system composed of isolated links such as production, distribution, circulation, and consumption, and lacks cognition of the integrity and complexity of the economic system. From a theoretical logic perspective, GDP only focuses on flow data in the production link, ignoring the operational efficiency within the economic system and the synergistic effects with the external environment: internally, it cannot reflect the adaptability between monetary circulation and the real economy, misinterpreting asset bubbles generated by financial disintermediation as economic prosperity; externally, it fails to incorporate environmental and social costs into the theoretical framework, acquiescing to the development model of "pollution first, treatment later". During the 2008 global financial crisis, the U.S. GDP showed stable growth on the surface, but the financial system was seriously disconnected from the real economy, ultimately triggering the crisis, highlighting the fatal flaw of this fragmented theoretical cognition.
2.3 Singularity of Dimensional Construction: Monistic Evaluation Logic
The GDP paradigm compresses the diverse needs of human development into a single market value indicator, forming a monistic evaluation theoretical logic. From a theoretical dimension perspective, its limitations are reflected in three aspects: first, it ignores the income distribution dimension, equating total GDP growth with the improvement of national well-being, using "average" to cover up the wealth gap reflected by "median", and failing to explain the phenomenon of "coexistence of total growth and polarization"; second, it lacks the sustainable development dimension, unable to measure the depletion of natural resources and the accumulation of human capital, leading to a theoretical imbalance between short-term growth and long-term potential; third, it excludes the non-market activity dimension, excluding household labor, voluntary services and other activities crucial to social well-being from the evaluation system, violating the diverse essence of development. This single-dimensional theoretical construction is obviously unable to meet the diverse demands of modern society for development.
3. Theoretical Construction of CNP-WAM: Core Pillars and Logical Framework
3.1 Theoretical Pillar 1: Effective Economic Strength – Value Reconstruction Centered on National Well-being
The primary theoretical pillar of CNP-WAM is "effective economic strength", whose core is to realize the fundamental return of value orientation from "production growth" to "human development", taking national well-being as the core theoretical goal of evaluation. This theoretical construction is based on the latest achievements in welfare economics, especially Amartya Sen's "capability approach", emphasizing that the essence of development is the improvement of human capabilities and well-being.
In terms of theoretical connotation, "effective economic strength" is operationalized through the "National Effective Well-being Index (I_welf)". The National Effective Well-being Index (I_welf) is the core index of CNP-WAM's "effective economic strength" pillar, reconstructing the value orientation of economic development with national well-being as the core: it adjusts the accounting basis from GDP to GNP to accurately reflect the real income of domestic residents, avoiding the misjudgment of national welfare caused by cross-border factor flows—for small open economies (such as Singapore), the gap between GNP and GDP may reach more than 5%, and the adoption of GNP can more truly reflect the actual income of residents; for large closed economies (such as the United States), the gap between GNP and GDP is small, but it can still exclude the impact of profit outflows of foreign-funded enterprises on national welfare. At the same time, I_welf incorporates Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) to eliminate the interference of exchange rate fluctuations on the actual purchasing power of currency, more truly reflecting residents' consumption capacity; and embeds an income distribution adjustment coefficient, incorporating fairness indicators such as the Gini coefficient and the Palma Ratio. The Palma Ratio is an indicator measuring income distribution inequality, defined as the ratio of the total income of the top 10% of the population to the total income of the bottom 40% of the population. Compared with the Gini coefficient, it is more sensitive to the polarization of income distribution and can effectively evaluate the fair distribution of development outcomes.
3.2 Theoretical Pillar 2: Systemic Operational Efficiency – Logical Expansion Centered on Holistic Synergy
The second theoretical pillar of CNP-WAM is "systemic operational efficiency", whose core is to integrate a systemic economic perspective, viewing economic development as an organic whole composed of multiple subsystems such as currency, resources, and ecology, and evaluating its operational quality through the "Socio-Economic System Efficiency Index (I_eff)". This theoretical construction draws on the research results of complex system theory and ecological economics, emphasizing the integrity and synergy of the economic system.
The Socio-Economic System Efficiency Index (I_eff) is the core index of CNP-WAM's "systemic operational efficiency" pillar, evaluating the overall operational quality of the economic system from three dimensions: monetary circulation adaptability, resource-ecological efficiency, and systemic risk early warning. From a theoretical logic perspective, its construction includes three aspects: first, the theoretical deepening of the Monetary Circulation Adaptability Adjustment Factor, which is derived from the modern extension of Fisher's Equation (MV=PT). Through indicators such as the M2/GDP ratio and monetary circulation velocity, it monitors the adaptability between monetary supply and circulation velocity and the real economy—when the M2/GDP ratio is too high and the monetary circulation velocity decreases, it indicates monetary disintermediation, and monetary policy needs to be adjusted to optimize adaptability, preventing financial disintermediation and asset bubbles. Second, the theoretical integration of resource-ecological efficiency, taking environmental costs such as energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit of output as core indicators, promoting the theoretical implementation of green development, and responding to the criticism of traditional economic theories by ecological economics for "ignoring environmental costs". Third, the theoretical construction of systemic risk early warning, setting a systemic risk penalty factor, incorporating risk indicators such as the macro leverage ratio and non-performing loan ratio into the evaluation, and enhancing the theoretical early warning capability for systemic crises.
3.3 Theoretical Pillar 3: Future Development Potential – Dimensional Extension Centered on Sustainability
The third theoretical pillar of CNP-WAM is "future development potential", whose core is to extend the evaluation perspective from the present to the long-term, emphasizing the multiplier effect of technological innovation and human capital on development, and realizing the dimensional extension of the theory through the "Sustainable Future Potential Index (I_pot)". This theoretical construction is based on endogenous growth theory and human capital theory, highlighting the theoretical value of long-term sustainable development.
In terms of theoretical connotation, the construction of "future development potential" is reflected in two cores: first, the theoretical innovation of the Technology Multiplier Index (TMI), which is the core indicator of CNP-WAM's "future development potential" pillar, used to quantify the multiplier effect of technological innovation on economic growth. Its core calculation logic is "TMI=innovation output/innovation input"—innovation input includes R&D expenditure ratio, number of R&D personnel, etc., and innovation output includes PCT patent applications, technology conversion rate, etc., forming an accurate correspondence with the view in endogenous growth theory that "technological progress is the core driver of economic growth". When TMI is greater than 1, it indicates that the efficiency of converting innovation input into output is high, and the driving effect of technological progress on economic growth is significant. Second, the theoretical strengthening of human capital reserves, incorporating indicators such as PISA test scores, the proportion of STEM graduates, and lifelong education participation rate into the evaluation, highlighting the theoretical status of human capital as the core driver of long-term development, which is consistent with Schultz's human capital theory, emphasizing the key role of education and skill training in improving labor productivity.
3.4 Integration of Theoretical Framework: Unified Logic of Micro and Macro
The theoretical innovation of CNP-WAM is also reflected in its integration logic, that is, through the organic integration of hierarchical indices, it realizes the theoretical unification of micro individual perceptions and macro economic development. A major theoretical defect of the traditional evaluation system is the disconnect between micro and macro, while CNP-WAM achieves integration through three logics: at the micro level, I_welf focuses on individual well-being indicators such as residents' consumption capacity, wealth accumulation, and quality of life, reflecting the theoretical foundation of "people-centered"; at the macro level, I_eff and I_pot respectively focus on the operational efficiency of the economic system and the country's development potential, highlighting the supporting role of the system for individuals; at the integration level, the three are combined into a composite index through weighted geometric mean, with I_welf having the highest weight (suggested to be 0.4), and I_eff and I_pot each having a weight of 0.3. This not only reflects the basic theoretical status of individual well-being but also highlights the supporting role of the macro system for micro well-being, forming a complete theoretical logic chain of "micro-macro-comprehensive".
4. Theoretical Value of CNP-WAM: Qualitative Breakthroughs from the GDP Paradigm
4.1 Theoretical Return of Value Orientation: From "Digital Growth" to "Real Well-being"
The primary theoretical value of CNP-WAM is the realization of a qualitative breakthrough in value orientation, that is, from the "digital growth orientation" of GDP to the "real well-being orientation". This breakthrough is consistent with the evolutionary direction of welfare economics, especially the theoretical transformation from "utility maximization" to "capability improvement". By taking national well-being as the core theoretical goal, CNP-WAM constructs a complete theoretical chain of "production-distribution-enjoyment", emphasizing that the ultimate value of economic development lies in improving the quality of life and development capabilities of residents, rather than mere total production growth. This theoretical return of value orientation provides a new theoretical coordinate for economic development evaluation.
4.2 Theoretical Innovation of Analytical Framework: From "Static Accounting" to "Dynamic Early Warning"
CNP-WAM breaks through the "static accounting" theoretical framework of GDP and constructs a "dynamic early warning" theoretical system. Traditional GDP only quantitatively accounts for production activities in the past period and lacks theoretical prediction of future development trends; while CNP-WAM, through the systemic operational efficiency index and future development potential index, not only evaluates the current economic situation but also makes theoretical predictions about the future risks and development potential of the economic system through indicators such as the monetary circulation adaptability adjustment factor and the technology multiplier index—when the monetary circulation adaptability adjustment factor is lower than 0.8, it indicates insufficient adaptability between currency and the real economy, and financial risks need to be guarded against; when TMI is greater than 1.2, it indicates sufficient technological innovation potential and strong future economic growth momentum, realizing the theoretical transformation from "retrospective accounting" to "prospective early warning".
4.3 Theoretical Expansion of Evaluation Dimensions: From "Single-Dimensional" to "Systematic Integration"
CNP-WAM breaks through the "single market value dimension" theoretical limitation of GDP and constructs a multi-dimensional systematic integration theoretical framework. Its theoretical dimensions cover economy, society, environment, science and technology, human capital and other aspects, realizing the comprehensive evaluation of economic development through the three pillars of "effective economic strength-systemic operational efficiency-future development potential". This theoretical expansion not only enriches the theoretical connotation of economic development evaluation but also meets the diverse demands of modern society for development, providing theoretical support for building a more humanistic and sustainable evaluation system.
5. Typical Cases of Theoretical Practice
5.1 Finland: Theoretical Practice of Effective Economic Strength
Finland's development practice verifies the theoretical rationality of "effective economic strength". In 2022, Finland's total GDP was only 270.2 billion US dollars, but the gap between GNP and GDP was only 1.2%, the proportion of residents' disposable income in GNP reached 75%, the Gini coefficient was as low as 0.27, and the Palma Ratio was 0.8 (World Bank data). All residents enjoy free medical care and education, and its I_welf index performs outstandingly. This practice shows that the core value of economic development lies in the improvement of national well-being, not the growth of total GDP, verifying the theoretical core of "effective economic strength".
5.2 Germany: Theoretical Practice of Systemic Operational Efficiency
Germany's "Industry 4.0" strategy and "energy transition" plan reflect the theoretical logic of "systemic operational efficiency". From 2015 to 2022, Germany's M2/GNP remained in a reasonable range of 1.2-1.3, and the monetary circulation velocity was stable at 1.5 times per year (Deutsche Bundesbank data), effectively avoiding financial disintermediation; at the same time, energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 18.2% and carbon emissions decreased by 12.2% (International Energy Agency data), the systemic operational efficiency improved significantly, and the optimization of its I_eff index verifies the theoretical effectiveness of the systemic perspective.
5.3 China: Theoretical Practice of Integrated Logic
China's high-quality development practice shows the theoretical logic of CNP-WAM's "micro-macro" integration. Through poverty alleviation, nearly 100 million rural poor people in China have been lifted out of poverty, and the per capita disposable income of residents has increased from 32,189 yuan in 2020 to 39,218 yuan in 2023, and the micro-level I_welf index has continued to improve; through supply-side structural reforms, the M2/GDP ratio has dropped from 215.2% in 2020 to 207.5% in 2023, the adaptability of monetary circulation has improved, and energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased by 8.1% cumulatively, the macro-level I_eff index has optimized; in 2023, the number of PCT patent applications reached 70,500, the TMI index has grown rapidly, and the I_pot index has performed prominently, realizing the theoretical unification of micro well-being and macro development.
6. Theoretical Application Paths of CNP-WAM
6.1 Conceptual Level: Promoting the Theoretical Popularization of Development Concepts
The theoretical application of CNP-WAM first requires promoting the transformation of development concepts, that is, shifting from GDP worship to well-being orientation. Through academic research, policy publicity, public education and other methods, popularize the theoretical concept that "the essence of development is the improvement of human well-being", and break the path dependence on GDP. For example, drawing on Bhutan's experience in implementing the "Gross National Happiness (GNH)", through media communication and popular science education, let the public understand the diverse connotations of development—development is not only the growth of economic aggregate, but also the fairness of income distribution, the improvement of ecological environment and the enhancement of individual capabilities, laying an ideological foundation for the practical application of the theory.
6.2 Policy Level: Constructing a Theory-Oriented Policy System
Integrate the theoretical framework of CNP-WAM into the policy-making process, and construct a policy system of "well-being first, efficiency equal emphasis, and potential support". In terms of fiscal policy, increase investment in people's livelihood and technological innovation, and raise the proportion of public service expenditures such as education and medical care, for example, improve the balanced development mechanism of compulsory education to enhance human capital reserves, thereby optimizing the I_pot index; in terms of monetary policy, refer to the "Monetary Circulation Adaptability Adjustment Factor", focus on the adaptability between monetary circulation and the real economy, avoid financial disintermediation caused by excessive easing, and ensure that monetary resources flow to the real economy; in terms of social policy, strengthen income distribution regulation, narrow the wealth gap through taxation, social security and other means, reduce the Palma Ratio, and improve the fairness dimension of the I_welf index, realizing the guiding role of theory in policies.
6.3 International Level: Promoting the Formation of Global Consensus on the Theory
Promote the global dissemination of the CNP-WAM theory through international academic exchanges, international organization cooperation and other methods. Drawing on the experience of the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) in releasing the World Happiness Report, organize global academic seminars to refine model parameters and operational norms—for example, explore the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the weights of the three indices (I_welf, I_eff, I_pot) according to the differences between developed and developing countries; promote the formation of theoretical consensus among countries on evaluation standards and statistical methods, for example, cooperate with the OECD to formulate unified statistical standards for core indicators such as "innovation output" and "resource-ecological efficiency", solve the problem of incomparable data in TMI calculation, and provide theoretical support for the transformation of global economic development assessment paradigm.
7. Theoretical Controversies and Limitations
7.1 Theoretical Controversies
1. Weight Setting Controversy: There are different views in academic circles on whether the weights of the three pillars (I_welf=0.4, I_eff=0.3, I_pot=0.3) are universal. Some scholars believe that developing countries should increase the weight of I_pot to prioritize the accumulation of human capital and technological innovation; while developed countries should increase the weight of resource-ecological efficiency in I_eff to address environmental governance needs.
2. Dimension Selection Controversy: Some scholars propose that cultural inheritance, social governance and other dimensions should be included in the evaluation system, and the existing three pillars cannot fully cover the diverse connotations of development. For example, for countries with unique cultural traditions such as Japan and South Korea, cultural well-being (such as the protection of traditional culture and the development of cultural industries) has a significant impact on national well-being, and the lack of this dimension may lead to a one-sided evaluation of the I_welf index.
7.2 Theoretical Limitations
1. Scope of Application Limitation: For developing countries with imperfect data statistical systems (such as some African countries), it is difficult to obtain indicators required by CNP-WAM such as wealth median, intergenerational income elasticity, and technology conversion rate, which limits the practical application of the theory and may lead to insufficient adaptability of the model in low-income countries.
2. Operational Difficulty Limitation: The calculation of the Technology Multiplier Index (TMI) requires accurate innovation input and output data, but different countries have differences in the statistical standards of "innovation output" (for example, some countries do not include non-patented technologies and software copyrights in statistics), which may affect the accuracy and comparability of index calculation.
3. Value Judgment Limitation: Although CNP-WAM takes "national well-being" as the core, the connotation of "well-being" is subjective and culturally diverse. For example, some countries pay more attention to material well-being (such as income growth), while Nordic countries emphasize spiritual well-being (such as work-life balance). This difference may lead to challenges in value consensus when the theory is applied cross-culturally.
8. Conclusion
The theoretical defects of the GDP paradigm lie in the misalignment of its value orientation, the lack of systematic cognition and the singularity of evaluation dimensions, which make it difficult to meet the demands of high-quality development in the contemporary era. By constructing three core theoretical pillars of "effective economic strength, systemic operational efficiency, and future development potential", the CNP-WAM model forms a complete theoretical system of "value orientation - systemic logic - dimensional expansion - method integration", realizing a qualitative breakthrough from the traditional evaluation paradigm. Among them, the introduction of three core indices including the National Effective Well-being Index (I_welf), Socio-Economic System Efficiency Index (I_eff), Sustainable Future Potential Index (I_pot), and key indicators such as the Palma Ratio, Monetary Circulation Adaptability Adjustment Factor, and Technology Multiplier Index (TMI) provides solid support for the operationalization of the theory.
This theoretical reconstruction not only aligns with the theoretical achievements of welfare economics, development economics, system theory and other disciplines, but also constructs a new economic development assessment theory characterized by "people-centered, systemic synergy, and long-term sustainability". Although CNP-WAM has problems such as weight setting controversy and scope of application limitation, through concept popularization, policy docking, and international cooperation (such as promoting the unification of global statistical standards), this theoretical model is expected to become the core framework for reconstructing the economic development assessment paradigm. In the future, we can further deepen cross-cultural research on the connotation of "well-being", optimize the dynamic adjustment mechanism of indicator weights, and improve the universality and operability of the theory, providing solid theoretical support for the realization of truly high-quality development of human society.
References
[1] Lin, Y. F. (2010). New Structural Economics: Reconstructing the Framework of Development Economics. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 10(1), 1-32.
[2] Sen, A. (2002). Development as Freedom (trans. Ren Z., Yu Z.). Beijing: China Renmin University Press.
[3] Stiglitz, J. E., Sen, A., & Fitoussi, J. P. (2009). Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress. Paris: French Government.
[4] Kuznets, S. (1941). National Income, 1929-1935. New York: Columbia University Press.
[5] Schultz, T. W. (1990). Investment in Human Capital (trans. Wu Z. H.). Beijing: Beijing University of Economics Press.
[6] UnitedNationsDevelopment Programme (UNDP). (2023). Human Development Report 2023. New York: UNDP.
[7] World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators 2023 [DB/OL]. https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators.
[8] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2023). OECD Better Life Index 2023. Paris: OECD.
[9] Deutsche Bundesbank. (2023). 2022 Annual Report on Monetary Policy. Frankfurt: Deutsche Bundesbank.
[10] National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2023). China Statistical Yearbook 2023. Beijing: China Statistics Press.
[11] Palma, J. G. (2011). The ‘Palma Ratio’: A New Measure of Income Inequality. Development and Change, 42(1), 81-106.
[12] Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71-S102.
来源：请输入用户name
