《海洋预报》| 近50年山东夏季极端高温的年代际变化特征及其影响因子

摘要：利用1973—2022年山东74个气象站夏季逐日最高气温、欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析数据集ERA5、英国哈德莱中心（Hadley）的海温和海冰数据，采用相关、回归等统计方法，分析了山东夏季极端高温事件的时空变化特征及其可能影响因子。结果表明：山东夏季极端

作者：黄燕玲1 23242

单位：

1. 山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室, 山东济南 250031;

2. 枣庄市气象局, 山东枣庄 277800;

3. 丽水市气象局, 浙江丽水 323000;

4. 临沂市气象局, 山东临沂 276004

分类号：P466

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第四期（94-106）

摘要：利用1973—2022年山东74个气象站夏季逐日最高气温、欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析数据集ERA5、英国哈德莱中心（Hadley）的海温和海冰数据，采用相关、回归等统计方法，分析了山东夏季极端高温事件的时空变化特征及其可能影响因子。结果表明：山东夏季极端高温日数在空间分布上呈现全区一致增加的态势，达到0.15 d/a,2012年以来增加趋势更为显著，达到0.61 d/a，且存在明显的年代际变化特征，即1973—2011年为高温少发时期，2012—2022年为高温多发时期。高温多发期的环流异常表现为西太平洋副热带高压面积偏大、位置偏西，南亚高压则东进北抬，山东位于大陆高压脊前，低层为异常反气旋环流控制，有利于下沉绝热增温；热力异常表现为低层暖平流输送，云量减少，短波辐射增多，有利于局地增温。2012年之前，山东夏季极端高温日数主要受前期春季北大西洋三极型海温异常影响，而2012年之后主要受前期春季北极海冰影响。

关键词：山东极端高温年代际变化北大西洋海温北极海冰

Abstract：Based on the summer daily air temperature data from 74 meteorological stations in Shandong Province, ERA5 reanalysis data, Hadley sea surface temperature and sea ice data during 1973—2022, the spatiotemporal characteristics and possible influencing factors of summer extreme high temperature（EHT） events are analyzed by correlation and regression statistical methods. The results show that: the summer EHT days in Shandong present a consistent increasing trend in the whole region reaching 0.15 d/a, with a more significant increasing trend since 2012 reaching 0.61 d/a. The summer EHT days in Shandong have obvious interdecadal variation that less-frequency events appear during 1973—2011 and high-frequency events appear during 2012—2022. During the period of high-frequent EHT days, the Western Pacific subtropical high was larger in area and westward, while the South Asian high moved eastward and northward. The continental high ridge front covered Shandong province with anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the lower layer, which was conducive to sinking adiabatic warming. The low-level warm advection transport, reduced cloud cover, and increased shortwave radiation are beneficial to local warming. Before 2012, the summer EHT days in Shandong were mainly affected by the abnormal sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Tripole in the previous spring, while affected by the Arctic sea ice in the previous spring after 2012.

Key words：Shandong; extreme high temperature; interdecadal variation; North Atlantic sea surface temperature; Arctic sea ice