安玲学记《基于复杂网络电力供应链风险管理研究》研究创新点难点

摘要：This issue of tweets will introduce the the 1.4 research innovation points and difficulties of the doctoral dissertation "Research

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今天小编为大家带来“精读博士论文《基于复杂网络的电力供应链风险管理研究》1.4研究创新点与难点"。

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Today, the editor brings the "the 1.4 research innovation points and difficulties of the doctoral dissertation 'Research on risk management of power supply chain based on complex networks'".

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一、内容摘要（Content summary）

本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读博士论文《基于复杂网络的电力供应链风险管理研究》的1.4研究创新点与难点。

This issue of tweets will introduce the the 1.4 research innovation points and difficulties of the doctoral dissertation "Research on risk management of power supply chain based on complex networks" from three aspects: mind mapping, intensive reading content, and knowledge supplement.

二、思维导图（Mind Mapping）

三、精读内容（Detailed Reading Content）

（一）研究创新点（Research innovation points）

该论文从复杂网络视角出发，系统拓展了电力供应链风险研究的内涵与外延，突破了以往以局部风险为对象的局限，首次将电力行业的长产业链、广范围特性纳入整体性分析框架，揭示了风险的系统性规律。

From the perspective of complex networks, this paper systematically expands the connotation and denotation of power supply chain risk research, breaks through the previous limitation of focusing on local risks, and for the first time incorporates the long industrial chain and wide range characteristics of the power industry into the overall analysis framework, revealing the systematic laws of risks.

研究创新体现在以下四个方面。其一，通过复杂网络理论构建了电力供应链全局风险分析模型，弥补了传统研究聚焦发电企业、电网运营或市场交易等单一环节的不足，实现了从“局部割裂”到“系统关联”的范式转换。其二，基于节点中心性理论创新风险评估指标体系，结合能量流、信息流、资金流的多维数据，运用模糊评价方法量化节点重要性，解决了单纯依赖网络拓扑特性与实际运营脱节的问题。其三，通过风险层级结构分析，发现截距变化下风险的动态演化规律，指出企业风险管理中“抓大放小”策略虽能降低成本，但也可能因忽视低关联度风险导致管控粗放化，这一发现为风险精细化治理提供了理论依据。其四，提出融合宏观政策目标与微观决策准则的复合模型，通过超矩阵计算量化风险优势度权重，实现了从风险识别到管理决策的全链条闭环分析，为兼顾电力安全供给与可持续发展目标提供了方法论支撑。

Research innovation is reflected in the following four aspects. Firstly, a global risk analysis model for the power supply chain was constructed through complex network theory, which made up for the deficiency of traditional research focusing on a single link such as power generation enterprises, power grid operation or market transactions, and achieved a paradigm shift from "local fragmentation" to "system correlation". Secondly, based on the theory of node centrality, a risk assessment index system was innovated. By combining multi-dimensional data of energy flow, information flow and capital flow, the importance of nodes was quantified by using the fuzzy evaluation method, which solved the problem of disconnection between relying solely on network topology characteristics and actual operation. Thirdly, through the analysis of the risk hierarchy structure, the dynamic evolution law of risks under the change of the intercept was discovered. It was pointed out that although the "focus on the big and let go of the small" strategy in enterprise risk management can reduce costs, it may also lead to extensive control due to the neglect of low-correlation risks. This discovery provides a theoretical basis for the refined governance of risks. Fourth, a composite model integrating macro policy goals and micro decision-making criteria was proposed. Through hypermatrix calculation, the weight of risk advantage degree was quantified, achieving a full-chain closed-loop analysis from risk identification to management decision-making, providing methodological support for balancing the safe supply of electricity and sustainable development goals.

（二）研究难点（Research Difficulties）

本论文的研究难点集中体现在电力系统转型过程中的动态风险变化、多学科交叉融合的理论应用复杂性以及电力供应链特有属性的高度复杂性三个方面。首先，在推动电力能源绿色低碳转型的实践中，新型电力系统的构建涉及特高压输电、分布式储能、人工智能等新兴技术，以及绿电市场、绿证市场、碳交易市场等新业态的探索，这些动态变化引入了大量不确定性因素，加剧了供应链风险管理的难度。其次，研究需综合运用复杂网络理论、风险管理、供应链管理等多学科知识，尤其复杂网络理论涉及图论、系统科学、统计学、模糊数学及计算机科学等跨领域理论，对研究者的理论基础和整合能力提出极高要求。最后，电力供应链兼具物理属性与网络结构双重复杂性，其风险具有多维度、多环节交织的特点，风险指标提取与量化存在困难，且需确保风险因素的颗粒度一致性以体现复杂网络理论的学术与应用价值，这些特性使得系统性研究面临显著挑战。

The research difficulties of this thesis are mainly reflected in three aspects: the dynamic risk changes during the transformation process of the power system, the complexity of theoretical application in the integration of multiple disciplines, and the high complexity of the unique attributes of the power supply chain. Firstly, in the practice of promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of power energy, the construction of a new power system involves emerging technologies such as ultra-high voltage transmission, distributed energy storage, and artificial intelligence, as well as the exploration of new business forms such as green power markets, green certificate markets, and carbon trading markets. These dynamic changes have introduced a large number of uncertain factors, increasing the difficulty of supply chain risk management. Secondly, the research requires the comprehensive application of knowledge from multiple disciplines such as complex network theory, risk management, and supply chain management. In particular, complex network theory involves cross-disciplinary theories such as graph theory, systems science, statistics, fuzzy mathematics, and computer science, which poses extremely high demands on the theoretical foundation and integration ability of researchers. Finally, the power supply chain is characterized by the dual complexity of physical attributes and network structure. Its risks are multi-dimensional and interwoven with multiple links, making it difficult to extract and quantify risk indicators. Moreover, it is necessary to ensure the consistency of the granularity of risk factors to reflect the academic and application value of complex network theory. These features pose significant challenges to systematic research.

四、知识补充——绿证市场（Knowledge Supplement - Green Certificate Market）

绿证市场是可再生能源绿色电力证书的交易平台，旨在促进绿色电力消费和可再生能源的发展。

The green certificate market is a trading platform for green power certificates of renewable energy, aiming to promote green power consumption and the development of renewable energy.