诺基亚手机的昨天 = 大众汽车的今天

摘要：除非高层有人拥有端到端的软件体验，否则他们将继续交付零散、笨重的用户体验——即使每辆车的价格为 185,000 欧元。

2007 年，诺基亚如日中天，拥有所有要素：

研发。全球影响力。杀手级硬件。

但他们错过了细节。

他们为昨天做了优化。

现在是大众占据硬件主导地位——而特斯拉和中国则改写了规则。

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让我们来分析一下：

→ 对传统过度自信 = 对转变视而不见。

诺基亚认为硬件 + 品牌就足够了。

大众？软件吞噬汽车，却仍在押注“德国工程”。

→ 他们误解了平台转变。

诺基亚专注于设备。苹果建立了操作系统。

大众制造汽车。特斯拉建立了端到端平台。

这不是电机与电池的较量。

这是软件优先的生态系统与粘在旧堆栈上的拼凑功能之间的较量。

→ 组织混乱破坏了产品连贯性。

诺基亚没有首席 UI 架构师。

大众？没有真正的首席软件远见者有能力拆除孤岛并交付。

除非高层有人拥有端到端的软件体验，否则他们将继续交付零散、笨重的用户体验——即使每辆车的价格为 185,000 欧元。

→ 遗留限制破坏了速度。

诺基亚有 Maemo。N 系列。

但他们行动不够快。

大众？优秀的工程师在一个从未打算进行软件迭代的系统内进行构建。

你不能通过重新设计过去来实现现代化。

你应该抛弃传统，从头开始构建速度。

——

这不是内燃机与电动汽车的问题。

这是旧世界的产品思维与全栈平台执行的问题。

诺基亚不是因为缺乏远见而死的。

他们死是因为远见没有带来力量。

大众已经看到了这种转变。

问题是——他们还会试图修补过去吗？

或者最终任命一位有权力重建未来的软件领导者？

你不会通过委员会来解决混乱问题。

你会选择出海。

你的看法是什么？

传统的 OEM 还能实现飞跃吗？还是他们已经太慢了？

Nokia then = VW now.

In 2007, Nokia had all the ingredients:
R&D. Global reach. Killer hardware.

But they missed the plot.
They optimized for yesterday.

Now it’s Volkswagen sitting on hardware dominance—while Tesla and China rewrite the rules.

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Let’s break this down:

→ Overconfidence in legacy = blindness to the shift.
Nokia believed hardware + brand were enough.
VW? Still betting on “German engineering” while software eats the car.

→ They misunderstood the platform shift.
Nokia focused on devices. Apple built an OS.
VW builds vehicles. Tesla built an end-to-end platform.

This isn’t about motors vs batteries.
It’s software-first ecosystems vs patchwork features glued onto old stacks.

→ Org chaos kills product coherence.
Nokia had no Chief UI Architect.
VW? No true Chief Software Visionary with the power to tear down silos and ship.

Until someone at the top owns the software experience end to end, they’ll keep shipping fragmented, clunky UX—even at €185,000 a car.

→ Legacy constraints destroy speed.
Nokia had Maemo. N-Series.
But they couldn’t move fast enough.

VW? Brilliant engineers building inside a system never meant for software iteration.

You don’t modernize by reworking the past.
You scrap the legacy and build for velocity from the ground up.

—

This isn’t about combustion vs electric.
It’s old-world product thinking vs full-stack platform execution.

Nokia didn’t die from lack of vision.
They died because vision didn’t come with power.

Volkswagen has seen the shift.
The question is—will they still try to patch the past?

Or finally appoint the software leader with the authority to rebuild the future?

You don’t fix disruption with committees.
You ship your way out.

What’s your take?
Can legacy OEMs still make the leap? Or are they already too slow?