摘要：As fertility rate hits all-time low in England and Wales, is there cause for concern for theeconomyand services?
‘Really transition al moment’: what should we do about declining fertility rates?
As fertility rate hits all-time low in England and Wales, is there cause for concern for the economy and services?
Jessica Murray Social affairs correspondent
Sat 30 Aug 2025 15.00 BST
“We happen to be alive at this really transition al moment,” said Prof Jane Falkingham, the director of the Centre for Population Change at the University of Southampton. “We’re moving from a world with high fertility and high mortality to a world of low mortality and low fertility. We have to get our heads around how we’re going to make that transition from the old world to the new world.”
Earlier this week, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the fertility rate for England and Wales had fallen for the third year in a row to reach a record low of 1.41. The rate represents the average number of live children women can expect to have in their child- bearing life.
The figures are part of a long-term trend of declining fertility rates across much of the globe – and experts are still working out exactly what the repercussions will be for our society and economy .
“We’re going to have an ageing population, so we need to think about the ages we start work, the ages we finish work, and how we organise the life course,” said Falkingham. “These are a lot of big policy challenges and we’ll have to think through what the solutions will be.”
Some of the effects are already being felt, with schools in some parts of the UK closing or merging due to declining pupil number s, and the sector expected to lose ￡1bn in funding by 2030. In June it was announced that five primary schools in Westminster, central London, would be merged to two, after they reported declining pupil number s, put down to housing costs and falling birthrates.
Paul Morland, a demographer and the author of No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children, said the sharp decline in fertility rates meant that “instead of just steadily building up the problem for the future, we’re dramatically building up the problem for the future”.
“You’ll start seeing that in schools closing. And what that means is in 20 years’ time, we will have a smaller and smaller number of people of working age. That’s going to make the public finances impossible, and the welfare state unsustainable,” he said.
An elderly white-haired woman sits in a living room between a toddler girl and a young woman who looks like the girl’s mother.
View image in fullscreen
There is concern about who will care for our ageing population. Photograph: Daniel Balakov/Getty Images
Dr Rebecca Montacute, the research director at the Social Market Foundation , a cross-party thinktank, said declining fertility rates caused “major economic challenge” in the long term.
“You simply will have fewer people of working age who are able to pay taxes and then actually pay for all of the goods and services that we need in the wider economy . At the same time, you have more ageing people, and they have obviously a heavy cost to the state in terms of the health and social care they need,” she said.
This would leave government with a “stark choice” between reducing public services or bringing in younger workers from abroad, both of which were politically challenging, she said.
However, there are many who say a declining fertility rate is no cause for alarm, and will actually bring environmental and economic benefits due to less consumption and demand for resources .
Dr Joshua Hill, the chief research and operations officer at the charity Population Matters, said: “ Tackling biodiversity loss, like rewilding, is easier to do with a lower population, and it also leads to a reduction in pollution and waste.
“For the UK, having a smaller population makes everything easier. It increases our food security . Health crises become lower . We are a small nation with a high population density . Everything is scarce , relatively.”
The UK population is predicted to grow to 86 million by 2100, fuelled by net migration (without migration, it is modelled to fall to 48 million), so Hill argues there is little concern about a declining workforce in the short term. He said the advent of artificial intelligence could lead to a reduced demand for workers anyway.
“I think actually the reality is that joblessness is going to be a far bigger problem than having not enough people,” he said.
A demonstration of a care support robot in Japan: a white robot on a blue wheeled base with a bear-like face and articulated arms lifts a young woman above a wheelchair which is held by another woman, dressed in white; a young man in a black suit looks on.
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Japan has developed care support robots to help fill gaps in social care, especially to look after the country’s ageing population. Photograph: The Asahi Shimbun/Getty Images
There is, however, concern about who will care for our ageing population, and whether our current social care system has the resources to cope , particularly when unpaid, informal support networks – often created by children or younger relatives – are not there.
“The cohort of women born in the 1960s, around 20% of them didn’t have children, so when they move into their 70s, 80s and 90s, we’re going to see more of a focus on the funding of social care,” said Falkingham.
But she said this would probably lead to the emergence of different models of care, such as through friendship groups, or a greater reliance on technology. Japan, for instance , is starting to roll out home-care robots to help look after its ageing population.
But Japan should also act a warning for what could come in the future, Morland said. “People say Japan is not falling to pieces, and that’s true. But it has got massive debt and its innovation and creativity has gone down and down. So it definitely suggests long-term decline, whether that’s government debt or the number of patents ,” he said.
Japan has also seen an epidemic of lonely deaths, with 68,000 people expected to die alone and unnoticed this year, the majority of them over 65.
“There is a risk that a lot of older people will be left uncared for,” Morland said. “There’s a lot of dependence of older people on their children, and they just won’t be there to do it. We have three workers for every retiree where we used to have four, five or six, and that’s putting huge pressure on the state.”
1. economy [ɪ(ː)ˈkɒnəmɪ] n. 经济；节省，简练；经济舱 adj. 经济实惠的 【名】 （economy）（英）伊科诺米（人名）；economies
2. correspondent [ˌkɒrɪsˈpɒndənt] n. 记者，通讯员；通信者，写信人；correspondents
3. transition [trænˈzɪʒən, -ˈsɪʃən] n. 过渡，转变；（分子生物）转换；（乐）临时转调；（物理）跃迁，转变 v. 转变，过渡；transitions；transitions；transitioning；transitioned；transitioned
4. numb [nʌm] adj. 麻木的，失去感觉的；迟钝的，呆滞的 v. 使麻木，使失去知觉；使迟钝，使呆滞；使（某种感觉）减轻，使减弱；number；numbs；numbing；numbed；numbed
5. bearing [ˈbeərɪŋ] n. 举止，仪态；与……有关，对……有影响；（对坏事的）宽容，容忍；轴承，支轴；方位，方向角；（用罗盘）定向，测位；（盾形纹章面上的）图案 v. 写有，刻有；手持，携带；承担（bear 的现在分词形式）；bearings
6. trend [trend] n. 趋势，动态；时尚，风尚；热门 v. 趋向，倾向；（尤指地理特征的）走向；成为热门；trends；trends；trending；trended；trended
7. merge [mɜːdʒ] v. （使）合并，（使）融合；渐渐消失于，融入；兼并（产权，产业） 【名】 （merge）（意）梅尔杰（人名）；merges；merging；merged；merged
8. sector [ˈsektə] n. 区域，部分；（尤指商业、贸易等的）部门，行业；小群体；（尤指军队控制的）分区，防区；（磁盘上的）扇区； 扇形，扇形面；函数尺，象限仪 v. 把……分成扇形；sectors；sectors；sectoring；sectored；sectored
9. fund [fʌnd] n. 基金，专款；资金，钱款；基金会；储备量 v. 资助，为……提供资金 【名】 （fund)）（德）丰德（人名）；funds；funds；funding；funded；funded
10. elderly [ˈeldəlɪ] adj. 上了年纪的；老掉牙的 n. 老人（the elderly）
11. image [ˈɪmɪdʒ] n. 形象，印象；影像，映像，图像；比喻，意象；画像，塑像，雕像；酷似另一个人的人；（人或事物）外形，外表；像点；硬盘备份；（圣经）偶像 v. 作……的像，描绘……的形象；（以探测器或电磁束）扫描出……的直观图；幻想，想像 【名】 （image）（法）伊马热（人名）；images；images；imaging；imaged；imaged
12. foundation [faʊnˈdeɪʃən] n. 地基，基础；基本原理，根据；基金会；建立，创办；（化妆打底用的）粉底霜；foundations
13. economic [ˌɪːkəˈnɒmɪk] adj. 经济的，经济学的；有利可图的；节约的
14. consumption [kənˈsʌmpʃən] n. 消费，消耗；食用，引用，吸入；专用；肺痨，肺结核
15. resource [rɪˈsɔːs] n. 自然资源；资源（指钱、物、人等）；有助于实现目标的东西，资料；（对付困境所需的）个人素质（resources）；（逆境中的）出路，应付办法； 谋略，智谋 v. 向……提供资金（或设备）；resources；resources；resourcing；resourced；resourced
16. charity [ˈtʃærɪtɪ] n. 慈善组织，慈善机构；慈善事业；仁慈，宽厚；赈济，施舍；charities
17. tackle [ˈtækl] v. 应付，解决（难题或局面）；与……交涉；（足球、曲棍球等比赛中）抢断；（橄榄球等比赛中）擒抱并摔倒（对方球员）；擒获；对付，打（尤指罪犯）；质问，责问；反对，反抗 n. （足球等中的）抢断球；（橄榄球或美式足球）擒抱摔倒；（美式足球中的）阻截队员；体育器械，（尤指）渔具；（吊起重物用的）索具，滑轮；男性性器官；tackles；tackles；tackling；tackled；tackled
18. lower [ˈləʊə] adj. （尤指在同类中处于）较下的，下方的；在底部的，近底部的；次重要的，较低级的；（数字或数量）较小的；向南的；早期的 v. 减少，降低；把……放低，使……降下；降低，贬低（身份）；变昏暗，变阴沉；露愠色 adv. 处于较低位置地，向低处下降地 【名】 （lower）（美、英）洛厄（人名）；lowers；lowering；lowered；lowered
19. reduction [rɪˈdʌkʃən] n. 减小，降低；减价，折扣；（照片、地图、图片等的）缩图，缩版；归纳，简化；（数学）归约，约化；染色体减半；简编曲（管弦乐改编的钢琴曲或小乐队演奏曲）；浓汤，浓汁；脱臼（或断骨）复位；（化学）还原，被还原；（语音）弱化；reductions
20. security [sɪˈkjʊərɪtɪ] n. 保护措施，安全工作；保安部门；安检处；保障，保证；安全，安全感；抵押品，保证金；证券，债券；securities
21. crisis [ˈkraɪsɪs] n. 危机，紧要关头；决定性时刻，关键时刻；（病情的）转折点，危象 adj. 用于处理危机的；crises
22. density [ˈdensɪtɪ] n. 稠密，密集；密度；densities
23. scarce [skeəs] adj. 缺乏的，不足的；稀有的，少见的 adv. 几乎不；scarcer
24. advent [ˈædvənt] n. 出现，到来，问世；基督降临节（advent）；基督降临，基督复临（advent）
25. articulate [ɑːˈtɪkjəlɪt] v. 明确表达，清楚说明；口齿清楚地说，清晰地发音；用关节连接，连结 adj. 善于表达的；口齿清楚的，发音清晰的；有关节的；articulates；articulating；articulated；articulated
26. current [ˈkʌrənt] adj. 现行的，当前的；通用的，流行的；最近的 n. 水流，气流；电流；思潮，趋势 【名】 （current）（英）柯伦特（人名）；currents
27. cope [kəʊp] v. 对付，处理 n. 长袍，法衣 【名】 （cope）（英）科普，（西）科佩（人名）；copes；copes；coping；coped；coped
28. reliance [rɪˈlaɪəns] n. 依靠，信任；被依赖的人（或物）
29. instance [ˈɪnstəns] n. 例子，实例 v. 举……为例；instances；instances；instancing；instanced；instanced
30. massive [ˈmæsɪv] adj. 大而重的，结实的；非常严重的；大量的，大规模的；特别成功的，非常有影响的；（岩石或地层）均匀构造的，大块的；（矿物）外观非晶质的；极好的，非常妙的 n. （某一地区的年轻人群体）嬉蹦音乐迷（或丛林爵士音乐迷）；massives
31. innovation [ˌɪnəʊˈveɪʃən] n. 新事物，新方法；革新，创新；innovations
32. patent [ˈpeɪtənt, ˈpætənt] n. 专利（权），专利证书；专利发明 adj. 受专利保护的，专利的；专利生产的，专利经销的；显而易见的，赤裸裸的；（寄生虫感染）明显的，显著的；（脉管、导管或孔）开放的，不闭合的 v. 获得……的专利权；授予专利；patents；patents；patenting；patented；patented
33. epidemic [ˌepɪˈdemɪk] n. 流行病，传染病；（迅速的）盛行，蔓延 adj. 盛行的，泛滥的；epidemics
‘Really transition al moment’: what should we do about declining fertility rates?
“真正的过渡时刻”：我们应该如何应对生育率下降？
As fertility rate hits all-time low in England and Wales, is there cause for concern for the economy and services?
随着英格兰和威尔士的生育率降至历史最低水平，是否有理由对经济和服务业造成担忧？
杰西卡·默里社会事务记者
Sat 30 Aug 2025 15.00 BST
2025年8月30日星期六 15:00 BST
“We happen to be alive at this really transition al moment,” said Prof Jane Falkingham, the director of the Centre for Population Change at the University of Southampton. “We’re moving from a world with high fertility and high mortality to a world of low mortality and low fertility. We have to get our heads around how we’re going to make that transition from the old world to the new world.”
“在“我们恰好活在这个真正的转型时期，”南安普顿大学人口变化中心主任简·福金汉姆教授说道。“我们正在从一个高生育率、高死亡率的世界走向一个低死亡率、低生育率的世界。我们必须想清楚，如何从旧世界过渡到新世界。”
Earlier this week, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the fertility rate for England and Wales had fallen for the third year in a row to reach a record low of 1.41. The rate represents the average numb er of live children women can expect to have in their child- bearing life.
本周早些时候，英国国家统计局的数据显示，英格兰和威尔士的生育率连续第三年下降，达到1.41的历史最低水平。该生育率指的是女性在生育期内预期生育的平均子女数量。
The figures are part of a long-term trend of declining fertility rates across much of the globe – and experts are still working out exactly what the repercussions will be for our society and economy .
这些数据是全球大部分地区生育率长期下降趋势的一部分，专家们仍在研究其对我们的社会和经济究竟会产生什么影响。
“We’re going to have an ageing population, so we need to think about the ages we start work, the ages we finish work, and how we organise the life course,” said Falkingham. “These are a lot of big policy challenges and we’ll have to think through what the solutions will be.”
“我们即将面临人口老龄化，所以我们需要考虑开始工作的年龄、结束工作的年龄，以及如何规划人生的轨迹，”福尔金汉姆说道。“这其中有很多重大的政策挑战，我们必须仔细思考解决方案。”
Some of the effects are already being felt, with schools in some parts of the UK closing or merging due to declining pupil numb ers, and the sector expected to lose ￡1bn in fund ing by 2030. In June it was announced that five primary schools in Westminster, central London, would be merge d to two, after they reported declining pupil numb ers, put down to housing costs and falling birthrates.
一些影响已经显现，由于学生人数减少，英国部分地区的学校关闭或合并，预计到 2030 年，该行业将损失 10 亿英镑的资金。今年 6 月，伦敦市中心威斯敏斯特的五所小学宣布将合并为两所，此前这两所学校报告称，由于住房成本和出生率下降，学生人数正在减少。
Paul Morland, a demographer and the author of No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children, said the sharp decline in fertility rates meant that “instead of just steadily building up the problem for the future, we’re dramatically building up the problem for the future”.
人口统计学家、 《无人剩下：世界为何需要更多孩子》一书的作者保罗·莫兰表示，生育率的急剧下降意味着“我们不仅在稳步积累未来的问题，而且正在急剧积累未来的问题”。
“You’ll start seeing that in schools closing. And what that means is in 20 years’ time, we will have a smaller and smaller numb er of people of working age. That’s going to make the public finances impossible, and the welfare state unsustainable,” he said.
“你会开始看到学校关闭。这意味着20年后，我们适龄劳动人口的数量将越来越少。这将使公共财政陷入困境，福利国家也将难以为继，”他说。
跨党派智库社会市场基金会的研究主任丽贝卡·蒙塔库特博士表示，生育率下降从长远来看会造成“重大经济挑战”。
“能够纳税并实际支付我们整体经济所需的所有商品和服务的适龄劳动人口将会减少。与此同时，老年人口也会增多，他们所需的医疗和社会保障显然会给国家带来沉重的负担，”她说道。
This would leave government with a “stark choice” between reducing public services or bringing in younger workers from abroad, both of which were politically challenging, she said.
她说，这将使政府面临一个“严峻的选择”，要么减少公共服务，要么从国外引进年轻工人，而这两者都具有政治挑战性。
然而，也有很多人表示，生育率下降并不值得担忧，而且由于消费和资源需求减少，生育率下降实际上还会带来环境和经济效益。
Dr Joshua Hill, the chief research and operations officer at the charity Population Matters, said: “Tackling biodiversity loss, like rewilding, is easier to do with a lower population, and it also leads to a reduction in pollution and waste.
慈善机构“人口事务”的首席研究和运营官乔舒亚·希尔博士说：“在人口较少的情况下，解决生物多样性丧失问题（如重新野化）更容易，而且还能减少污染和浪费。
“For the UK, having a smaller population makes everything easier. It increases our food security . Health crises become lower . We are a small nation with a high population density . Everything is scarce , relatively.”
对英国来说，人口较少让一切都变得更容易。这提高了我们的粮食安全，健康危机也减少了。我们是一个人口密度高的小国。相对而言，一切都比较稀缺。
预计到2100年，英国人口将增长至8600万，主要受净移民推动（不包括移民，英国人口将降至4800万），因此希尔认为短期内无需担心劳动力下降。他表示，人工智能的出现无论如何都可能导致对工人的需求减少。
“I think actually the reality is that joblessness is going to be a far bigger problem than having not enough people,” he said.
他说：“我认为现实情况是，失业将是一个比人口不足更大的问题。”
There is, however, concern about who will care for our ageing population, and whether our current social care system has the resource s to cope , particularly when unpaid, informal support networks – often created by children or younger relatives – are not there.
然而，人们担心谁来照顾我们的老龄人口，以及我们现有的社会保障体系是否有资源来应对，特别是在没有无偿的非正式支持网络（通常由儿童或年轻亲属创建）的情况下。
“The cohort of women born in the 1960s, around 20% of them didn’t have children, so when they move into their 70s, 80s and 90s, we’re going to see more of a focus on the fund ing of social care,” said Falkingham.
福尔金汉姆说：“20 世纪 60 年代出生的女性中，约有 20% 没有孩子，所以当她们步入 70、80 和 90 岁时，我们将看到她们更加关注社会保障资金。”
但她表示，这可能会导致不同的护理模式出现，例如通过友谊小组，或更多地依赖技术。例如，日本已开始推出家庭护理机器人，以帮助照顾老龄人口。
But Japan should also act a warning for what could come in the future, Morland said. “People say Japan is not falling to pieces, and that’s true. But it has got massive debt and its innovation and creativity has gone down and down. So it definitely suggests long-term decline, whether that’s government debt or the numb er of patent s,” he said.
但莫兰表示，日本也应该对未来可能发生的事情发出警告。“人们说日本没有崩溃，这话没错。但它负债累累，创新和创造力也不断下降。所以，无论是政府债务还是专利数量，这无疑预示着长期衰退。”他说道。
日本也出现了孤独死亡的现象，预计今年将有 68,000 人孤独而无人注意地死去，其中大多数年龄在 65 岁以上。
“There is a risk that a lot of older people will be left uncared for,” Morland said. “There’s a lot of dependence of older people on their children, and they just won’t be there to do it. We have three workers for every retiree where we used to have four, five or six, and that’s putting huge pressure on the state.”
“很多老年人面临无人照料的风险，”莫兰说。“老年人很大程度上依赖子女，而子女根本无法照顾他们。我们现在每照顾一位退休老人就需要三名工作人员，而以前我们每照顾一位退休老人需要四、五或六名工作人员，这给州政府带来了巨大的压力。
来源：左右图史
