摘要：The world economy is currently expanding at a moderate pace, and is faced with enormous risks and challenges, such as trade fricti

The world economy is currently expanding at a moderate pace, and is faced with enormous risks and challenges, such as trade frictions, geopolitical complexity and volatility, persistent inflation, and decelerated growth in major economies. Despite increasing global economic uncertainty, Asia has remained as a key growth engine for the world economy. Its weighted real GDP growth rate is projected to reach 4.5% in 2025, slightly higher than in 2024 (4.4%). At purchasing power parity, the ratio of Asia's GDP among the global total is expected to rise from 48.1% in 2024 to 48.6% in 2025. From a regional perspective, East Asia is forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2025, South Asia by 5.9%, and Central Asia by 5.0%, while West Asia is expected to rise notably from 2.1% in the previous year to 2.9%.

The overall situation of employment and income is turning upwards in Asia. The region’s job growth rate is estimated to decline sharply from 1.94% in the previous year to 1.22% in 2025, which is lower than the global average of 1.28%, but its unemployment rate is projected to be 4.39% in 2025, lower than the global rate of 4.96%. The overall income level in the region remains stable. As economic growth picks up and inflation continues to ease, the real income in Asia is expected to reach a new level.

The inflation continues to fall in Asia and will return to a target range in most economies. In 2025, Asia’s inflation is likely to go up, driven by such factors as rising wages, higher logistical costs, supply chain restructuring and currency depreciation, but its inflationary pressures may be mitigated by a reduction in commodity prices. The inflation situation in East Asia and South Asia is largely improving, while some economies in Central Asia and West Asia, such as Palestine, Türkiye and Iran, will remain under strong inflationary pressures.

Asia's trade and investment will come under strain, but stand to benefit from a number of bright spots. In 2025, trade and investment in Asia may be greatly impacted by a wide array of factors such as a persistently low growth rate of the world economy, potential escalation of trade frictions, spillover effects associated with macroeconomic policy adjustments in advanced economies, and on-going geopolitical tensions. Digital trade and services trade stand out as bright spots in Asian economic and trade landscape. The development of digital trade rules is well underway in Asia where its major economies have become an essential part of global digital trade. Services trade is growing fast, out of which digitally delivered services are emerging as a key driver of growth, tourism and travel-related services are recovering obviously, and transportation services are growing substantially.

According to the estimates of a UNCTAD report, as the leading recipient of foreign direct investment in the developing world, Asia received USD588 billion FDI inflow in 2024, down by 7.4% from the previous year. India, however, saw a year-on-year growth of 13% in the number and value of its greenfield projects. ASEAN economies witnessed a 2% increase in their FDI inflows. As to the outbound foreign direct investment, Japan and China are taking the lead in Asia. In the first 11 months of 2024, China’s outbound FDI amounted to USD147.96 billion, up by 9.2% from the same period of the previous year.

Asia's financial markets are expected to maintain overall stability in the midst of frequent fluctuations. Influenced by the macroeconomic situation, the foreign policy of the new US administration, the timing of monetary policy adjustments in major economies including the US and Europe, and geopolitical risks, Asia’s stock market indices are likely to fluctuate more frequently in 2025, but most of them may keep an upward trend. While most economies in the region may face currency depreciation pressure, major Asian economies are projected to maintain exchange rate stability. The easing inflation and on-going loose monetary policies in many economies could provide a modest boost to economic activities, while the yield of 10-year government bonds may decline in major Asian economies. Risks in the banking sector are generally manageable.

Most Asian economies are expected to adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy while keeping an accommodative monetary policy. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the budget deficit ratio will rise in 20 of Asian economies in 2025. The easing inflation in most economies allows for more flexibility in relaxing monetary policies and stimulating economic growth. Externally, interest rate cuts by major global economies will also create favorable conditions.

In 2024, the world economy experienced a moderate recovery. The trade in goods resumed growth worldwide and exhibited an upward curve in its integration process in Asia. According to available data, the dependence of Asian economies on intra-regional trade remained at a high level of 56.3% in 2023. ASEAN and China maintained their solid and central positions in Asian trade in goods. In terms of dependence on Asia, ASEAN reported the highest trade dependence at around 70%; the Republic of Korea and Japan posted a figure close to 60%, at 59.5% and 58.4% respectively; and India and China were 51.2% and 48.5% respectively. For RCEP and CPTPP economies, the figures amounted to 57.5% and 49.1% respectively. From an economy-specific perspective, the internal dependence of ASEAN member states reached 21.5%; the dependence of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea on ASEAN all remained at around 15%. ASEAN saw a dependence close to 20% on China, while Japan and the Republic of Korea witnessed a dependence of over 20% on China. CPTPP and RCEP economies had a 17.4% and 11.5% dependence on China, compared to their reliance of 12.3% and 16.9% over ASEAN.

Asia is still at the heart of global value chains, and China continues to be the center of gravity of global manufacturing value chains. In 2023, Asia contributed a share of 41.17% to global trade in intermediate goods, which was far ahead of 25.5% by the European Union and 15.12% by North America. Since 2017, global trade in intermediate goods has been more dependent on China than on North America. In 2023, the dependence of global trade in intermediate goods on China was 16%, compared to its dependence of 15% over North America. The trade frictions provoked by the United States in 2018 have not elevated its position in the global value chains of manufacturing, but have broadened its gap with China in terms of their importance across the global values chains of manufacturing.

From an analysis of the trade volume of the world’s most traded 22 intermediate goods, half of these products are most reliant over Asia. Electronic components manufactured in Asia account for 70% of the global trade in goods of the same category, highlighting Asia’s unmatched competitive edge in the production of high-tech intermediate goods. The coming into effect of RCEP has further lowered the tariffs on intermediate goods within key Asian economies. Despite the relocation of trade in some goods from China across global value chains since 2021, China has managed to keep its dominant position in the chains, not to mention the increasing dependence of some technology-intensive products on the country. In 2023, China remained a leader in 20 of the world’s most traded 22 intermediate goods, indicating its continued clear advantages in the global supply chains.

The trade in services has been increasingly integrated in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2023, 25 selected economies in the region exported a total of USD1,807.08 billion-worth services, which included USD41.78 billion intra-regional exports, an annual average growth of 1.36%, obviously higher than the negative figure of 2.28% for those exported to the outside. The service content of manufacturing has been increasing. Among the exports of manufacturing, the value added from services account for 26.14%, while the services provided within the region cover a share of 63.25%. Calculated on a value-added basis, China moved from a deficit to a surplus in terms of trade in services in 2023, underscoring the actual contributions of services trade to the increasingly specialized global value chains and its facilitating role in regional economic cooperation.

Asia's digital trade continues to grow rapidly. In 2024, retail e-commerce grew 8.4% in the Asia-Pacific region. China's imports and exports of cross-border e-commerce increased by 10.8% to RMB2.63 trillion (approximately equivalent to USD369 billion). The gross merchandise value (GMV) of the e-commerce sector in Southeast Asia reached USD263 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%. In 2023, India and China ranked 4th and 6th in global digital delivery service exports, while China, Singapore, and Japan ranked 7th, 8th, and 9th in this type of imports. Moreover, as an intermediate service, digital services trade is driving new growth in global trade. The intermediate services trade, represented by key categories such as telecommunications, computer and information services, has gradually increased its dependence on Asian economies. The intermediate services exported to Asia rose from 24.16% in 2001 to 29.74% in 2020 as a share of the world’s total, while such services sourced from Asia increased from 19.75% to 26.61% of the global total over the same period. Global intermediate services saw a slow decline in their dependence on the American market, and witnessed a decrease followed by an increase in their dependence on the European market.

The international tourism market is recovering in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2024, the inbound tourism markets of the Hong Kong SAR of China and Malaysia posted a 93.01% and 90.02% dependence on Asian markets, ranking first and second in the region. The Republic of Korea and Viet Nam have seen their reliance on Asian markets increase year by year. Japan, Singapore and Indonesia have maintained stable growth in their Asian dependence. Australia's outbound tourism sector has reported the most significant growth (47.88%) in its dependence on Asian markets. By streamlining visa procedures (visa-free entry for 38 countries) and facilitating payment for foreigners (a 300% increase in foreign card transactions), China has effectively revitalized its short-haul market. In 2024, inbound arrivals recovered to 91% of the pre-pandemic level, with Southeast Asia replacing Europe and America as the core source of growth.

In 2023, the IFDI and OFDI dependence of Asian economies on the region itself reached 49.15%. As the most economically dynamic region in the world, Asia has become an increasingly important player in global cross-border direct investment, showing several new trends. First, global foreign investments have increased their reliance on Asian economies amid fluctuations. Second, China and ASEAN are the most appealing economies in Asia. Third, investment hotspots in Asian economies are continually evolving. And fourth, the manufacturing sector is more favored by cross-border direct investment within Asia.

From the perspective of two-way dependence on foreign direct investment in Asia, China remained the economy most reliant on Asian FDI flows, followed by Indonesia, with their dependence rates exceeding 80% and 75% respectively. The Hong Kong SAR of China and India saw their dependence on Asian FDI fluctuate around 40%, while Singapore, Japan, Australia, and the Republic of Korea posted dependence rates of around 20%. In terms of the IFDI dependence index, the Chinese mainland and the Hong Kong SAR of China were the largest sources of foreign investment for each other. Singapore contributed the largest share of inbound foreign direct investment in Japan, India and Indonesia, and was among the leading sources of IFDI in the Chinese mainland. When it comes to the OFDI dependence index, the Chinese mainland and the Hong Kong SAR of China maintained their status as each other's primary investment destination. The Chinese mainland continued to be Singapore’s most preferred FDI destination.

With regard to financial integration in Asia, the outstanding portfolio investment assets of Asian economies reached USD11.2 trillion in 2023, 19.6% of which was allocated in Asia. Japan, China, the Republic of Korea, the Hong Kong SAR of China and Singapore serve as key nodes for portfolio asset allocation among Asian economies. Meanwhile, three of the world’s top 5 stock exchanges measured by IPO fundraising in 2024 are based in Asia. From a perspective of cross-border banking claims, Asian economies reported a cross-border banking asset balance of USD10.2 trillion as of Q1 2024, with its share among the global total standing at a range of 26-28% over the past five years. In terms of foreign bank participation rates, selected Asian economies primarily rely on their "local strength," leading to a generally lower participation rate of foreign banks than in traditional developed economies. Therefore, collaborating to build a resilient regional financial network is a significant pathway for Asian economies to advance their financial cooperation.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a significant achievement of Asian economic integration. It integrates the free trade agreement arrangements within the region, optimizes the configuration of economic resources, and demonstrates the determination of Asian economies to promote open cooperation, which injects certainty into the uncertain landscape of global economy and trade. Since the official implementation of the RCEP, the trade creation effect has started to emerge, foreign direct investment within the region grown steadily, and the integration of regional industrial chains and value chains accelerated, injecting new vitality into the member economies.

The RCEP region has been enjoying steady trade growth. In 2024, the total trade value within the region increased by approximately 3% year-on-year, and trade among most member economies achieved yearly growth. Developing economies such as Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Indonesia witnessed the fastest growth rates, with their intra-regional trade increased by 72.4%, 40.4%, 26.0%, and 19.2% respectively compared to the levels before RCEP came into force. Trade in intermediate goods within the region has risen at a significant pace, accounting for approximately 66% of the total trade within the region in 2023. At the same time, trade in services within the region has seen remarkable expansion. In 2024, China's trade in services exceeded USD1 trillion, and emerging ASEAN economies, including Laos and Cambodia, experienced substantial growth in service trade.

FDI within the region has grown at a considerable pace. In 2023, the RCEP region attracted 35% of IFDI from the world and contributed to 30% of the global OFDI. The IFDI to ASEAN rose to USD226.3 billion, up 1.3% year-on-year and reaching an all-time high.

The regional value chain has been deepened. In 2023, the global value chain (GVC) trade participation rate within the region reached 48.1%. The value of GVC trade among Australia, China, the Republic of Korea, and ASEAN rose after the RCEP came into effect.

In light of the key trends in regional economic and trade cooperation, RCEP encounters challenges in areas such as market integration, rule utilization, and implementation mechanisms. Market integration remains insufficient, relying heavily on the US and European export markets. From 2021 to 2023, more than 16% of RCEP's consumer goods exports went to the US, while China received about 9.25%. The overall utilization rate of RCEP rules is low. That of the rules of origin in some ASEAN member states is less than 3%. The regulatory level of RCEP provisions needs to be enhanced. The phasing-down period for tariff reduction under the RCEP is relatively long, and the level of openness in trade in services and investment needs to be upgraded. The policy coordination and dispute settlement mechanisms need to be improved. RCEP application in areas such as investment, government procurement, and e-commerce has been affected.

Jointly building a high-level, largest free trade zone in the world calls for concerted efforts to promote the high-standard implementation and upgrading of RCEP, improve the governance system, and advance the free trade process in the Asia-Pacific region. Firstly, build a regional open cooperation platform centered on ASEAN, assist ASEAN in establishing a 'growth center,' and promote the RCEP process through the 'ASEAN way.' Secondly, China orderly expands its autonomous and unilateral opening-up, accelerate the full coverage of 'zero tariffs' on consumer goods imported from ASEAN, promote the integration of industrial chains, and expand the openness of service trade and investment. Thirdly, aligning with the CPTPP and the DEPA, enhance and upgrade RCEP through deepening discussions on frontier topics such as government procurement, e-commerce, and green development, and expedite the establishment and effective operation of the secretariat, so as to strengthen capacity building, and achieve early breakthroughs in expansion. Fourthly, use RCEP as a lever to advance the free trade process in the Asia-Pacific region. Achieve coordinated development between RCEP and the upgraded version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, promote the China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Agreement negotiation process, and empower APEC, so as to lay the foundation for the vision of the Free Trade Area in the Asia-Pacific region.

来源：博鳌亚洲论坛