巴菲特加仓日本五大商社，秘诀在这7条

摘要：最近，巴菲特又放大招了！他悄悄加仓了日本股票，这让不少人摸不着头脑。大家都在观望，他却出手了。这可不是一时兴起，而是巴菲特一贯的投资智慧在发挥作用。伯克希尔在 2 月 22 日致股东的年度信函中表示：“随着时间的推移，您可能会看到伯克希尔对这五家公司的持股量有

最近，巴菲特又放大招了！他悄悄加仓了日本股票，这让不少人摸不着头脑。大家都在观望，他却出手了。这可不是一时兴起，而是巴菲特一贯的投资智慧在发挥作用。伯克希尔在 2 月 22 日致股东的年度信函中表示：“随着时间的推移，您可能会看到伯克希尔对这五家公司的持股量有所增加。”

三井物产持股比例从8.09%增至9.82%

三菱商事持股比例从8.31%升至9.67%

住友商事持股比例从8.23%提高到9.29%

伊藤忠商事持股比例由7.47%上调至8.53%

丸红株式会社持股比例从8.30%增加至9.30%

那么，这位“股神”是怎么做投资决策的？他的赚钱秘诀到底是什么？

今天，来聊聊巴菲特的7条经典投资智慧，看完你也能学会怎么聪明地“玩”投资！

1. “20次投资原则”：别乱买，选准了再出手

巴菲特说过：“如果一生只能投资20次，你肯定会更小心。”这话听起来像开玩笑，但意思很实在。投资不是超市购物，想买啥就买啥，而是像打棒球，机会有限，得等好球再挥棒。

很多新手输就输在买太多股票，精力分散，还爱频繁买卖，像赌运气。巴菲特不一样，他只挑自己看好的优质公司下手。比如，他买可口可乐、苹果，都是深思熟虑后的决定。你也一样，与其乱买一堆，不如把钱投在少数靠谱的地方，这样才能赚得稳。

时长00:32

And it's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything. You only have to have an opinion on a few things. In fact I've told students if when they got out of school, they got a punch card with 20 punches on it and that's all the investment decisions they got to make in their entire life, they would get very rich because they would think very hard about each one. And you don't need 20 right decisions to get very rich. You know, 4 or 5 will probably do it over time. So I don't worry too much about the things, I don't understand it.

2. 在别人恐惧时贪婪：市场慌了，你的机会来了

2008年金融危机，股市一片哀嚎，大家都在抛售股票逃命。但巴菲特呢？他拿出几十亿美元抄底，买了一堆优质公司。结果怎么样？低价捡了便宜货，几年后赚得盆满钵满。

他有句名言：“天上掉馅饼时，用水桶接，别用顶针。”意思是，市场恐慌时，好公司被低估，正是捡漏的好时机。别人越害怕，你越要大胆，抓住机会才能翻身。

时长01:31

If you have a temperament that when others are fearful, you're going to get scared to yourself, you know, you are not going to make a lot of money. Insecurities over time, in all probability.

You know, people really, if they didn't look at the quotations, but of course, the whole world is urging them to look at quotations and more than that, do something based on small changes in quotations. But if you didn't think how much more rational, we've talked about it before, but think how much more rational investing in a farm is, then the way many people buy stocks.

And if you buy a farm, do you get a quote next week? You get a quote next month. If you buy in a apartment house, do you get a quote next week, a month? No, you look at the apartment house or the farm and you say, I expected it to produce so many bushels of soybeans and corn. And if it does that, it meets my expectations. But they buy a stock and they think of it goes up, it's wonderful. If it goes down, it's bad. We think just the opposite. When it goes down, we love it because we'll buy more, and if it goes up, it kills us to buy more and I, you know?

Ben Graham wrote about it. It's been explained. But if you can't get yourself in that mental attitude, you're going to be scared. Whenever everybody else is scared, expect somebody else to tell you when to buy and therefore get your courage back up or something. You know, I could get this fellow's courage up substantially by saying it is a wonderful time to buy. And then a week from now, he'd run into somebody else that tells him the world was coming to an end and he'd sell. I mean, he's a broker's friend.

当然，“别人恐惧时我贪婪”并不是盲目地抄底，而是建立在对市场和公司深入研究的基础之上。投资者需要具备独立的思考能力和坚定的信念，才能在市场恐慌时做出正确的决策。

3. 避开“死亡陷阱”：别在股价跌时慌着卖

股市一跌，你是不是也慌了，赶紧卖掉止损？但巴菲特告诉你，这可能是最大的错误。很多人一见股价下跌就吓得抛售，结果亏得血本无归。他却反过来操作：下跌时加仓，逢低买入，然后耐心等市场回暖。

比如，他买的可口可乐，股价波动时他从不动摇，长期持有赚了十几倍。投资是场长跑，别被短期波动吓跑，时间会帮你把钱赚回来。

4. 只投自己懂的公司：不懂不碰，少踩雷

巴菲特有个铁律：不碰自己搞不懂的东西。1999年互联网泡沫，大家抢着买科技股，他不为所动；2021年比特币热得发烫，他也冷眼旁观。他只投自己熟悉的领域，像可口可乐、苹果这种家喻户晓的公司。

为啥？他不想稀里糊涂亏钱。你也一样，买股票前先问问：这公司是干啥的？我懂吗？不懂就别碰，免得跟风被坑。

5. “现金流法则”：挑能赚钱的“摇钱树”

巴菲特挑公司，有个硬指标：能不能持续赚钱。他看中的企业得有三点：

现金流稳定，每天都有钱进账；

定价权强，想涨价就涨价，像可口可乐；

竞争优势大，别人轻易抢不走生意。