《海洋预报》 | 2024年海水倒灌事件长江口海域风浪潮特征分析

摘要：2024年我国沿海部分区域发生了两次海水倒灌，引发全国关注。基于实测资料和浪潮耦合数值模型，分析两次海水倒灌事件期间长江口海域风浪潮特征，研究海水倒灌事件成因和机制。结果表明：两次事件均与强北风过境有关，但又显著不同。10月海水倒灌事件前期异常北风占主导，但后

2024年海水倒灌事件长江口海域风浪潮特征分析

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作者：吴旭云丁骏秦涛

单位：

上海市海洋监测预报中心, 上海 200062

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第三期（34-44）

摘要：2024年我国沿海部分区域发生了两次海水倒灌，引发全国关注。基于实测资料和浪潮耦合数值模型，分析两次海水倒灌事件期间长江口海域风浪潮特征，研究海水倒灌事件成因和机制。结果表明：两次事件均与强北风过境有关，但又显著不同。10月海水倒灌事件前期异常北风占主导，但后期东海出现强东北偏东风，渤黄海罕见的二次增水是北风松弛阶段回荡的开尔文波和东海强东北偏东风过程诱发的陆架强迫波共同作用的结果，二者的贡献占比为42%和58%，受陆架波的影响，此事件期间长江口海域出现两次增水过程。11月海水倒灌事件中北风持续时间更长，空间范围更大，长江口海域出现先增水后减水的特征。今后需要重点关注冷空气松弛阶段的风场变化，特别是异常偏东风过程，为极端突发海水倒灌灾害防御提供新思路。

关键词：海水倒灌风暴潮陆架波浪潮耦合模型长江口海域

Abstract：In 2024, two severe storm surge events occurred along the coasts of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and South China Sea, leading to coastal flooding in some areas which attracted national attention. Based on in situ observations and the coupled wave-current model, we investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of winds,surface waves and storm surges around the Changjiang River Estuary, and the involved physical mechanisms of the coastal flooding processes. The results show that both events were associated with strong northerly winds, but with significant difference between them. For the storm surge event during October 19 to 22, the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea and East China Sea were dominated by northerly winds firstly and experienced high surge from north to south as coastal trapped waves. The East China Sea, however, experienced strong northeasterly winds from east to west during the late period of the event, thus a rare secondary high surge occurred in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, as a result of the combined effect of free Kelvin waves during the relaxation stage of cold air and shelf waves triggered by northeasterly winds in the East China Sea. Numerical simulation shows that the free oscillating Kelvin wave and the forced shelf wave contribute to about 42% and 58% of the secondary high surge,respectively. For the storm surge event during November 16 to 19, the northerly winds lasted a longer time and covered a large area, resulting in surge set-up firstly and then surge set-down over the Changjiang River Estuary.Changes in the wind field during the relaxation phase of cold air, especially the abnormal easterly wind events,are key factors that need to be closely monitored in wave and storm surge forecasts. This study provides new insight into strategy dealing with extreme coastal flooding events in the future.

Key words：seawater backflow；storm surge; shelf wave; wave-current coupled model; Changjiang River Estuary