摘要：Trump recently increased pressure on countries like Brazil, South Africa, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Myanmar, and others by s

By Umair Jamal

U.S. PresidentDonald Trumphas imposed steeptariffson exports from dozens of trading partners, primarily from the Global South in an attempt to reorder the world economy.

Trump recently increased pressure on countries like Brazil, South Africa, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Thailand, Myanmar, and others by signing an executive order that imposes new tariff rates which will come into effect on August 7.

The U.S. has levied a 50 percent tariff on most Brazilian goods while imposing a 40 percent tariff both on Myanmar and Laos. Bangladesh and Vietnam face a 20 percent tariff and Pakistan is subject to a 19 percent tariff on its exports to the U.S., significantly impacting these nations' trade.

These elevated tariffs seem designed not only to address trade imbalances but also to extract political concessions from countries with differing stances from the U.S. Arguably, Washington is trying to leverage economic vulnerability of countries from the Global South to enforce compliance.

The important question is, what does all of this mean for weaker economies in the Global South that are already grappling with financial instability? More importantly, it is crucial to discuss what alternatives they have to survive and achieve economic sustainability.

The immediate impact of the Trump administration's latest tariff shocks will likely be currency devaluations and debt crises in weaker economies.

Many countries facing U.S. tariffs rely heavily on exports to the U.S. which help them shore up their foreign currency reserves. Whether it's garments from Bangladesh, electronics from Malaysia, or platinum from South Africa, Trump's unpredictable and sudden tariff hikes are likely to reduce demand for their goods. Such moves could lead to currency depreciation in these countries, where a fall in exports means they earn fewer dollars which can ultimately weaken their exchange rates.

Moreover, the majority of nations in the Global South, including Pakistan, Egypt, Ghana, and others, have dollar-denominated debt. This essentially means that a weaker local currency makes loan repayments more expensive and inflation higher.

It appears that the militarization of trade by the Trump administration is not just an attempt to fix trade imbalances. These actions are more about forcing political compliance from weaker economies that depend on the U.S. dollar to survive. A large number of these countries only have small trade surpluses with the U.S. but still find themselves in the crosshairs of Trump's assault.

It is clear that by threatening tariffs, the U.S. is trying to punish dissent and making every effort to weaken alternative trade blocs such as BRICS or the African Continental Free Trade Area. This was seen in the case of the U.S. threatening an additional 10 percent tariff on BRICS nations which only called out U.S. policies that are harming global trade rules.

The ripple effects of these measures will be seen through increased inflation, unemployment and social unrest in weaker economies globally.

By imposing higher tariffs, the U.S. is not only hurting governments worldwide but also affecting thousands of workers and consumers. A failure to strike a trade deal or submit to U.S. business rules can lead to a decline in exports from countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and others.

This situation can lead to factory closures and job losses in many countries. Such circumstances often result in inflation spikes and weaker currencies in import-dependent countries. These conditions often become a perfect recipe for political instability and unrest. This was evident in Sri Lanka in 2022 and Pakistan in 2023, where economic pain created openings for political instability.

While this situation is challenging, it also presents opportunities for weaker economies globally. For instance, it forces them to confront the long-term dilemma of how the Global South should respond to the U.S. economic offensive.

Moreover, it raises the fundamental question: What choices do these countries have?

Initially, these nations should consider diversifying trade partners to reduce dependence on the U.S. They should invest in strengthening ties with blocs like BRICS and other similar trade partners. This can eventually lead to expanding trade in local currencies, which could help bypass dollar-led debt and trade rules.

There is also a need to boost intra-regional trade. For example, African countries should accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, which aims to create a single market for goods and services across the continent. Similarly, ASEAN should work on deepening integration with China. Additionally, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should take a more active role in increasing economic integration between Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East.

These countries also need to focus on building domestic industries and stop relying solely on low-value exports. In some cases, with China as a trading partner, they can learn and should invest in technology and manufacturing. This has been seen in the case of the development of economic zones in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Finally, these nations must strengthen their financial defenses to prepare for growing dollar volatility due to U.S.-led global trade shocks. This can include measures like stockpiling foreign exchange reserves to guard against currency shocks, issuing debt in local currencies to avoid dollar reliance and exploring barter trade with neighboring and regional countries.

Trump's tariffs are only a warning shot. These developments indicate that Washington will no longer follow traditional rules of globalization. However, these developments also show that when the U.S. weaponizes trade, the weaker economies suffer the most.

Clearly, the way forward for countries in the Global South involves bold steps. This includes actions such as reducing reliance on the dollar, strengthening regional alliances and investing in self-sufficiency.

For the Global South, the choice is stark. They either submit to U.S. demands or work to build an independent economic future. If these nations fail to act, they risk becoming permanent victims in a U.S.-dominated trade war.

Umair Jamal, a special commentator for CGTN, is a Qatar-based international affairs commentator and security analyst.

来源：中国网一点号