摘要：尽管特朗普尚未在社交媒体上直接提到莫迪，但国际事务专家开始怀疑，特朗普与莫迪之间的亲密关系是否已成为过去？美国和印度历经数十年建立起来的战略性关系会否陷入泥潭。印度外交部前政策顾问阿肖克·马利克表示：“当下是对这一关系的考验时刻。”
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特朗普与莫迪的友谊熊抱
一、互称好友的特朗普与莫迪的友谊小船因何遭遇风浪？
美联社2025年8月5日报道，美国总统特朗普与印度总理莫迪这两位意识形态相似的民粹主义领导人曾亲密熊抱、相互恭维和互称亲密朋友。
在印度，人们曾认为总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普之间的友好情谊独一无二。然而，一系列事件的发生让这对昔日好友的关系开始变味。
从特朗普的对印度加征关税、印度从俄罗斯购油，到美国向巴基斯坦靠拢，新德里与华盛顿之间的摩擦日益增加，不少摩擦直接由特朗普的社交媒体帖子引发。
尽管特朗普尚未在社交媒体上直接提到莫迪，但国际事务专家开始怀疑，特朗普与莫迪之间的亲密关系是否已成为过去？美国和印度历经数十年建立起来的战略性关系会否陷入泥潭。印度外交部前政策顾问阿肖克·马利克表示：“当下是对这一关系的考验时刻。”
印度青年画家在特朗普宣布对印度加征25%的关税后所画的标有震惊字样的讽刺画
二、因贸易和关税引发的美印关系紧张
美印之间关系的最新矛盾在上周明显呈现，特朗普宣布因印度购买俄罗斯石油，将对印度征收25%的关税，并施加一项未明确的惩罚。对印度而言，其最大贸易伙伴美国的这一举措预计将影响印度的多个行业。更让印度感到不安的是，特朗普还在社交媒体上称印度经济“死气沉沉”。
一位匿名介绍政府内部想法的白宫官员表示，特朗普近期的表态反映出他对与印度贸易谈判进展缓慢不满。
8月4日，特朗普在“真相社交”上发布新帖，加大对印度的施压力度，指责印度从俄罗斯购买“大量”石油，然后“在公开市场上出售以获取巨额利润”。特朗普写道：“他们不在乎乌克兰有多少人被俄罗斯的战争机器杀害。正因为如此，我将大幅提高印度向美国支付的关税。”
这一言论似乎刺痛了莫迪政府。因为既要平衡印度的保护主义体系，又要向更多美国商品开放本国市场的莫迪政府一直在极力推动与特朗普团队的贸易谈判。
考虑到莫迪在印度人心目中精心塑造的强硬形象，许多人预计印度会对特朗普的言行作出强烈回应。但美国的宣示仅引发印度商务部长皮尤什·戈亚尔十分谨慎的回应，他表示两国正致力于达成一项“公平、平衡且互利的双边贸易协议”。印度外交部也淡化了有关印美关系紧张的说法。
但研究印美关系的国际问题专家们对此心存疑虑。目前负责美国咨询公司“亚洲集团”印度分部的马利克说：“过去25年来，两国首都所做的艰巨、持续且跨党派的努力正陷入风险，这不仅是因为关税，还因为轻率的言论和社交媒体帖子。”
马利克表示，印度方面向美国提出的贸易协议是“该国历史上最具广度的”。他说，有报道称印度愿意对部分美国农产品开放市场。这对莫迪而言是一个非常敏感的政治问题，因为几年前他曾遭遇持续一年的农民抗议。
特朗普宣布要调解印度和巴基斯坦在克什米尔的冲突
三、特朗普在向巴基斯坦倾斜吗？
尽管美印关系恶化可能因关税问题而加速，但紧张局势实际上已显现一段时间。这在很大程度上与特朗普和印度在南亚的主要宿敌巴基斯坦的关系日益密切有关。
今年5月，印巴有争议的克什米尔地区发生恐怖袭击惨案。印度指责巴基斯坦对此负责，巴基斯坦否认印度指控；两国发生一系列军事冲突。这场持续四天的冲突让双方发生核冲突的可能性变得真实可感，直到全球大国介入，战事才得以停止。
但真正让莫迪政府感到不安的是，特朗普声称他进行了调解，并提出要为印巴的克什米尔争端提供“解决方案”。自那以后，特朗普近20次宣称是他促成了印度和巴基斯坦之间的和平。
对莫迪而言，这是一个危险和令其不安的问题。因为在国内，他将自己定位为对巴基斯坦强硬的领导人；在国际上，他付出巨大外交努力孤立巴基斯坦。因此，特朗普的说法对印度造成了深深的情感伤害，让印度认为美国可能不再是其战略伙伴。
因为印度坚称克什米尔是其内部事务，反对任何第三方干预。上周，在印度反对党要求莫迪对特朗普的帖子作出回时，莫迪表示：“世界上没有任何国家阻止”印巴之间的战斗，他虽然没有点名特朗普，但实际上是在驳斥特朗普的说法。
特朗普对巴基斯坦的态度也变得日益友好，甚至赞扬其反恐努力。在宣布对印度征收关税数小时后，特朗普宣布与巴基斯坦达成一项“大规模”的石油勘探协议，并表示有朝一日印度可能不得不从伊斯兰堡购买石油。此前，他还以私人午餐会招待了巴基斯坦的一位高级军事官员。
新德里金达尔国际事务学院专家斯里拉姆·桑达尔·乔利亚表示，特朗普突然赞赏巴基斯坦是反恐领域的重要伙伴，这“无疑”击中了印度的痛点。他表示：“最好的情况是，这只是特朗普一时的心血来潮”，但他也警告说，“如果美国和巴基斯坦确实达成了金融和能源协议，这将损害美印战略伙伴关系，并导致印度对美国失去信任。”
特朗普对印度大量从俄罗斯购油并转卖非常不满！？
四、特朗普对印度持续从俄罗斯大规模购油不满
美印关系的紧张还与特朗普十分重视的石油行业有关。在俄乌冲突爆发初期，拜登政府曾向印度施加巨大压力，要求其削减从莫斯科的石油采购。但印度反而增加了购买量，成为仅次于中国的俄罗斯石油第二大买家。
随着时间推移，拜登政府对印度的压力逐渐下降，因为将印度视为抵御中国堡垒的拜登政府为拉拢印度，不愿因要求印度放弃购买俄罗斯石油而影响其与印度的所谓民主意识形态同盟和战略伙伴关系。
但特朗普威胁要因石油问题惩罚印度，重新引发美印在这一问题上的分歧。8月3日，特朗普政府将其对印俄关系的不满公之于众。白宫副幕僚长斯蒂芬·米勒指责印度通过从莫斯科购买石油为俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争提供资金，称这“不可接受”。
特朗普成功用关税调解印巴冲突？
五、美印关系恶化对美、印、中、俄、巴关系和全球地缘政治的影响。
首先，美印关系的紧张削弱了美国在印巴冲突中长期偏袒印度的立场，使巴基斯坦在克什米尔等争议地区面临的军事压力有所缓解。美国对印施压和与巴走近有助于提升巴基斯坦在外交博弈中的筹码，缓解其长期面临的国际孤立压力。
特朗普政府在对印度加征关税的同时，高调宣布与巴基斯坦达成“大规模石油勘探协议”，并暗示未来可能由巴基斯坦向印度供应石油，这既是对印度的经济施压，也为巴基斯坦带来实质利益。此举不仅能提振了巴方经济，还有助于强化其在地区能源供应链中的地位。
其次，美国曾将印度视为制衡中国的关键支点，通过强化美印安全合作以抑制中国在印太地区的影响力。美印裂痕加深削弱了这一联盟的有效性，短期内可能缓解中国在印度洋及周边面临的战略遏制压力。
美印关系恶化有可能迫使印度重新调整外交策略，可能转向强化与俄罗斯、伊朗等国的合作并推行“战略自主”外交，从而缓和与我在各方面的竞争，以争取中国企业投资和贸易以对冲美国压力。
但也要看到，特朗普政策的最大确定性就是其不确定性。美印双方虽然现在面临不少矛盾，但可能因选举周期、贸易谈判进展等随时出现反复，存在美印关系缓和后美国可能重新整合印太联盟对华施压的可能，因而中国需保持战略灵活性以应对其不确定性。
Modi and Trump once called each other good friends. Now the US-India relationship is getting bumpy. By SHEIKH SAALIQ and RAJESH ROY. NEW DELHI (AP). August 5, 2025
The men shared bear hugs, showered praise on each other and made appearances side by side at stadium rallies — a big optics boost for two populist leaders with ideological similarities. Each called the other a good friend.
In India, the bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump was seen as a relationship like no other. That is, until a series of events gummed up the works.
From Trump’s tariffs and India’s purchase of oil from Russia to a U.S. tilt towards Pakistan, friction between New Delhi and Washington has been hard to miss. And much of it has happened far from the corridors of power and, unsurprisingly, through Trump’s posts on social media.
It has left policy experts wondering whether the camaraderie the two leaders shared may be a thing of the past, even though Trump has stopped short of referring to Modi directly on social media. The dip in rapport, some say, puts a strategic bilateral relationship built over decades at risk.
“This is a testing time for the relationship,” said Ashok Malik, a former policy adviser in India’s Foreign Ministry.
The White House did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment.
Simmering tensions over trade and tariffs
The latest hiccup between India and the U.S. emerged last week when Trump announced that he was slapping 25% tariffs on India as well as an unspecified penalty because of India’s purchasing of Russian oil. For New Delhi, such a move from its largest trading partner is expected to be felt across sectors, but it also led to a sense of unease in India — even more so when Trump, on social media, called India’s economy “dead.”
Trump’s recent statements reflect his frustration with the pace of trade talks with India, according to a White House official who was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity to describe internal administration thinking. The Republican president has not been pursuing any strategic realignment with Pakistan, according to the official, but is instead trying to play hardball in negotiations.
Trump doubled down on the pressure Monday with a fresh post on Truth Social, in which he accused India of buying “massive amounts” of oil from Russia and then “selling it on the Open Market for big profits.”
“They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA,” he said.
The messaging appears to have stung Modi’s administration, which has been hard-selling negotiations with Trump’s team over a trade deal by balancing between India’s protectionist system while also opening up the country’s market to more American goods.
Many expected India to react strongly considering Modi’s carefully crafted reputation of strength. Instead, the announcement prompted a rather careful response from India’s commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, who said the two countries are working towards a “fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement.” India’s Foreign Ministry also played down suggestions of any strain.
However, experts in New Delhi wonder.
“Strenuous, uninterrupted and bipartisan efforts in both capitals over the past 25 years are being put at risk by not just the tariffs but by fast and loose statements and social media posts,” said Malik, who now heads the India chapter of The Asia Group, a U.S. advisory firm .
Malik also said the trade deal the Indian side has offered to the U.S. is the “most expansive in this country’s history,” referring to reports that India was willing to open up to some American agricultural products. That is a politically sensitive issue for Modi, who faced a yearlong farmers’ protest a few years ago.
Trump appears to be tilting towards Pakistan
The unraveling may have gained momentum over tariffs, but the tensions have been palpable for a while. Much of it has to do with Trump growing closer to Pakistan, India’s nuclear rival in the neighborhood.
In May, India and Pakistan traded a series of military strikes over a gun massacre in disputed Kashmir that New Delhi blamed Islamabad for. Pakistan denied the accusations. The four-day conflict made the possibility of a nuclear conflagration between the two sides seem real and the fighting only stopped when global powers intervened.
But it was Trump’s claims of mediation and an offer to work to provide a “solution” regarding the dispute over Kashmir that made Modi’s administration uneasy. Since then, Trump has repeated nearly two dozen times that he brokered peace between India and Pakistan.
For Modi, that is a risky — even nervy — territory. Domestically, he has positioned himself as a leader who is tough on Pakistan. Internationally, he has made huge diplomatic efforts to isolate the country. So Trump’s claims cut a deep wound, prompting a sense in India that the U.S. may no longer be its strategic partner.
India insists that Kashmir is India’s internal issue and had opposed any third-party intervention. Last week Modi appeared to dismiss Trump’s claims after India’s Opposition began demanding answers from him. Modi said that “no country in the world stopped” the fighting between India and Pakistan, but he did not name Trump.
Trump has also appeared to be warming up to Pakistan, even praising its counterterrorism efforts. Hours after levying tariffs on India, Trump announced a “massive” oil exploration deal with Pakistan, saying that some day, India might have to buy oil from Islamabad. Earlier, he also hosted one of Pakistan’s top military officials at a private lunch.
Sreeram Sundar Chaulia, an expert at New Delhi’s Jindal School of International Affairs, said Trump’s sudden admiration for Pakistan as a great partner in counterterrorism has “definitely soured” the mood in India.
Chaulia said “the best-case scenario is that this is just a passing Trump whim,” but he also warned that “if financial and energy deals are indeed being struck between the U.S. and Pakistan, it will dent the U.S.-India strategic partnership and lead to loss of confidence in the U.S. in Indian eyes.”
India’s oil purchases from Russia are an irritant
The strain in relations has also to do with oil.
India had faced strong pressure from the Biden administration to cut back its oil purchases from Moscow during the early months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Instead, India bought more, making it the second-biggest buyer of Russian oil after China. That pressure sputtered over time and the U.S. focused more on building strategic ties with India, which is seen as a bulwark against a rising China.
Trump’s threat to penalize India over oil, however, brought back those issues.
On Sunday, the Trump administration made its frustrations over ties between India and Russia ever more public. Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff at the White House, accused India of financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Moscow, saying it was “not acceptable.”
Some experts, though, suspect Trump’s remarks are mere pressure tactics. “Given the wild fluctuations in Trump’s policies,” Chaulia said, “it may return to high fives and hugs again.”
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