摘要：The average temperature for the 12 months ending on 31 December 2024 may have been the highest in more than 100,000 years, reports

Hottest year in human history leaves questions

人类历史上的最热年份引发诸多疑问

The average temperature for the 12 months ending on 31 December 2024 may have been the highest in more than 100,000 years, reports indicate, and spiked during the past 2 years for reasons climate scientists don’t fully understand. Last week, climate monitoring groups estimated global surface temperatures in 2024 ranged between 1.45°C and 1.6°C higher than the preindustrial average. At first blush, this increase seems to exceed a target set by the Paris agreement in 2015: limiting the increase in warming to 1.5°C to avoid worsening effects of climate change, such as biodiversity losses and more intense storms. But because the global average fluctuates naturally from year to year, what counts is the long-term average increase in temperature since the 19th century, which currently sits between 1.2°C and 1.4°C. The increase in the past 2 years surprised many climate scientists, surpassing what they expected just from increasing greenhouse gases and from an El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean. Explanations for this extra heat have focused on a decrease in light-reflecting air pollution or less global cloud cover.

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据相关报告，截至2024年12月31日的12个月平均气温可能达到了10万多年来的最高水平，并且过去两年间气温急剧上升，而气候科学家尚未完全理解其中原因。上周，气候监测机构估算，2024年全球地表气温较工业化前平均水平上升了1.45℃到1.6℃。乍一看，这一升温幅度似乎超过了2015年《巴黎协定》设定的目标：将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5℃以内，以避免气候变化加剧带来的更严重的后果，比如生物多样性丧失以及更强烈的风暴等。然而，由于全球平均气温本身会因年际差异而自然波动，真正关键的是自19世纪以来的长期平均气温上升幅度，目前这一数值处于1.2℃到1.4℃之间。过去两年的气温上升幅度令许多气候科学家感到意外，超出了他们基于温室气体增加以及太平洋厄尔尼诺气候模式所能预期的范围。对于这一额外热量的成因，目前主要集中在减少反光型空气污染物或全球云层覆盖减少等方面进行探讨。

来源：小尹说科学