喆学(101):精读期刊论文模型(1)

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摘要:This issue of tweets will introduce the Model of the intensive reading journal article "The Impact of Demand Uncertainty on Consum

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“喆学(101):精读期刊论文

《需求不确定性对绿色技术采用的消费者补贴的影响》

模型(1)”

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"Zhexue (101): Intensive reading of journal articles

"The impact of demand uncertainty on consumer subsidies for green technology adoption"

Model(1)"

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本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读期刊论文《需求不确定性对绿色技术采用的消费者补贴的影响》模型。

This issue of tweets will introduce the Model of the intensive reading journal article "The Impact of Demand Uncertainty on Consumer Subsidies for Green Technology Adoption" from three aspects: mind map, intensive reading content, and knowledge supplement.

一、思维导图(Mind Maps)

二、精读内容(Intensive reading content)

文章描述了一个两阶段斯塔克伯格博弈模型,其中政府是领导者,供应商是跟随者。该模型假设一个单周期模型,具有一个独特的供应商,并考虑一个完全信息的环境。政府决定每件产品的补贴水平r,供应商随后设定价格p和生产数量q以最大化其利润。补贴r由政府直接提供给最终消费者。需求函数D(z,e)依赖于消费者支付的有效价格z=p−r和一个随机变量e。一旦需求实现,销售水平由供应和需求的最小值决定,即min(q,D(z,e))。该模型特别适用于短期政策,如一年。对于长期政策,可能需要一个动态模型来更现实地反映随时间变化的价格、数量和补贴。

The article describes a two-stage Stackelberg game model in which the government is the leader and suppliers are followers. The model assumes a single-period model with a unique supplier and considers a perfect information environment. The government determines the subsidy level r for each product, and the supplier then sets the price p and production quantity q to maximize its profit. The subsidy r is provided directly by the government to the final consumer. The demand function D(z,e) depends on the effective price z=p−r paid by the consumer and a random variable e. Once the demand is realized, the sales level is determined by the minimum of supply and demand, i.e. min(q,D(z,e)). The model is particularly suitable for short-term policies, such as one year. For long-term policies, a dynamic model may be needed to more realistically reflect prices, quantities, and subsidies that change over time.

该模型的目标是研究需求不确定性的整体影响,通过单周期垄断模型来隔离这一影响。这些建模假设对于我们数值分析中使用的雪佛兰Volt来说是合理的近似。自电动汽车推出以来,雪佛兰Volt的MSRP和补贴水平一直保持相对稳定。消费者补贴在这些产品推出之前就已经公布。

The goal of the model is to study the overall effect of demand uncertainty and isolate this effect using a single-period monopoly model. These modeling assumptions are reasonable approximations for the Chevrolet Volt used in our numerical analysis. The MSRP and subsidy levels for the Chevrolet Volt have remained relatively stable since the electric vehicle was introduced. Consumer subsidies are announced before these products are introduced.

接着讨论了电动汽车(EV)市场中供应商的定价和生产决策。假设供应商在生产前已知政府提供的消费者补贴金额,并且市场上的竞争者较少,产品差异显著。供应商面临的利润最大化问题为:在给定边际单位成本 c 和政府宣布的消费者补贴水平 r 的情况下,选择价格 p 和生产数量 q 来最大化预期利,其中 z=p−r 是消费者支付的有效价格,D(z,ϵ) 是需求函数。边际成本 c 可能包括制造成本和增加生产能力的额外成本。模型可以扩展以包括未售出单位的残值 v 或未满足需求的惩罚成本 u,但这些扩展不会实质性影响结果,只会改变新闻商生产分位数。为简化说明,假设残值和惩罚成本均为零,即 v=u=0。

The pricing and production decisions of suppliers in the electric vehicle (EV) market are then discussed. It is assumed that the supplier knows the amount of consumer subsidies provided by the government before production, and there are few competitors in the market with significant product differentiation. The profit maximization problem faced by the supplier is: choose the price p and the production quantity q to maximize the expected profit given the marginal unit cost c and the level of consumer subsidies announced by the government r, where z=p−r is the effective price paid by consumers and D(z,ϵ) is the demand function. The marginal cost c may include the manufacturing cost and the additional cost of adding production capacity. The model can be extended to include the salvage value v of unsold units or the penalty cost u of unmet demand, but these extensions do not substantially affect the results and only change the news supplier production quantile. For simplicity of explanation, the salvage value and penalty cost are assumed to be zero, that is, v=u=0.

最后讨论了在电动汽车市场早期阶段,供应商作为价格制定者决定价格(MSRP)和生产数量的一般情况,以及作为价格接受者仅决定生产数量的替代情况。政府引入消费者补贴r以刺激销售,达到特定的采用目标Γ。政府希望在期望达到这一目标的同时,最小化补贴计划的总成本。定义Exp为最小预期补贴支出。

Finally, we discuss the general case in which suppliers act as price makers and determine both price (MSRP) and production quantity in the early stages of the electric vehicle market, and the alternative case in which they act as price takers and only determine production quantity. The government introduces a consumer subsidy r to stimulate sales to achieve a specific adoption target Γ. The government hopes to minimize the total cost of the subsidy program while expecting to achieve this target. Define Exp as the minimum expected subsidy expenditure.

三、知识补充(Knowledge supplement)

政府补贴对电动汽车市场产生了显著影响。

Government subsidies have had a significant impact on the electric vehicle market.

首先,补贴政策刺激了消费者购买电动汽车,推动了市场需求的增长。例如,2024年中国电动汽车销量突破100万辆,且增速远超全球平均水平,这与中国政府的政策支持密切相关。此外,补贴政策不仅推动了中国新能源汽车产业的发展壮大,也使自主品牌脱颖而出,被越来越多新消费群体接受。2022年前11月,新能源乘用车零售销量前五的品牌中,三家为自主品牌企业,其中比亚迪销量达157.6万辆,位列第一。

First, the subsidy policy has stimulated consumers to buy electric vehicles and promoted the growth of market demand. For example, China's electric vehicle sales exceeded 1 million in 2024, and the growth rate far exceeded the global average, which is closely related to the policy support of the Chinese government. In addition, the subsidy policy has not only promoted the development and growth of China's new energy vehicle industry, but also made independent brands stand out and be accepted by more and more new consumer groups. In the first 11 months of 2022, three of the top five brands in terms of retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were independent brand companies, among which BYD's sales reached 1.576 million vehicles, ranking first.

其次,补贴政策有助于提高电车的市场竞争力,促使企业降低价格,从而吸引更多消费者。同时,政府补贴政策还对市场供需产生了影响,刺激了电动汽车市场的需求。随着补贴政策的实施,越来越多的消费者选择购买电动汽车,这不仅提升了新能源汽车普及度和消费者接受度,加快了电池、电机等相关技术进步,也带动了充电基础设施建设与行业本身同步发展。

Second, the subsidy policy helps to improve the market competitiveness of electric vehicles, prompting companies to lower prices and thus attract more consumers. At the same time, the government subsidy policy has also had an impact on market supply and demand, stimulating the demand in the electric vehicle market. With the implementation of the subsidy policy, more and more consumers choose to buy electric vehicles, which not only improves the popularity and consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles, accelerates the progress of related technologies such as batteries and motors, but also drives the construction of charging infrastructure and the industry itself.

然而,随着补贴政策的逐步退坡,新能源汽车消费市场逐渐从政策驱动转向市场驱动。畅销车型中补贴占比持续降低,从2017年补贴在当年畅销车型售价中的平均占比约为35%,到了2021年则降至10%左右。这表明市场正在逐步适应没有补贴的环境,企业需要通过提高产品质量和性能来吸引消费者,而不是仅仅依赖补贴。

However, with the gradual decline of the subsidy policy, the new energy vehicle consumer market has gradually shifted from policy-driven to market-driven. The proportion of subsidies in best-selling models continues to decline, from an average of about 35% of the price of best-selling models in 2017 to about 10% in 2021. This shows that the market is gradually adapting to an environment without subsidies, and companies need to attract consumers by improving product quality and performance rather than relying solely on subsidies.

总的来说,政府补贴对电动汽车市场的推动作用是显而易见的,它不仅促进了市场的快速增长,还加速了技术创新和基础设施建设。但随着市场的成熟,补贴政策也在逐步调整,以促进市场的自我发展和可持续发展。

In general, the role of government subsidies in promoting the electric vehicle market is obvious. It not only promotes the rapid growth of the market, but also accelerates technological innovation and infrastructure construction. However, as the market matures, subsidy policies are also gradually adjusted to promote the self-development and sustainable development of the market.

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翻译:谷歌翻译

参考资料:谷歌、Chat GPT

参考文献:Maxime C. Cohen, Ruben Lobel, Georgia Perakis. The Impact of Demand Uncertainty on Consumer Subsidies for Green Technology Adoption [J], Management Science, 2016, 62(5): 1235-1258.

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