越览（95）——精读复刻论文的对比分析（1）

摘要：This issue will introduce the comparative analysis of the intensively read replica paper "Emergency decision-making method based o

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“越览（95）——精读复刻论文

《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的

应急决策方法》对比分析（1）。”

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Dear, this is the LearingYard Academy!

Today, the editor brings the

"Yue Lan(95)—intensive reading replica paper

'Emergency decision-making method based on

multi-granularity probability language

and dual reference points

'comparative analysis (1)".

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一、内容摘要（Summary of content）

本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读复刻论文《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的应急决策方法》的对比分析（1）。

This issue will introduce the comparative analysis of the intensively read replica paper "Emergency decision-making method based on multi-granularity probability language and dual reference points" in terms of mind maps, intensively read content, and knowledge supplementation.

二、思维导图（Mind mapping）

三、精读内容（Intensive reading content）

为了验证本文所提方法的有效性和优越性，本文将从关键风险因素的权重确定方法和可行方案的选择方法两个方面与现有的方法进行了对比分析。

In order to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the method proposed in this paper, this paper will compare and analyze it with the existing methods from two aspects: the method of determining the weights of key risk factors and the method of selecting feasible solutions.

作者在应急方案选择方法的比较分析部分将前景理论中基于单参照点的分析方法和传统的期望效用理论应用于本案例与本文方法的结果进行对比，需要指出的是，基于单参照点的方法分别考虑选取底线目标和理想目标为参照点的情形。

In the comparative analysis of emergency plan selection methods, the author applied the single referencepoint analysis method in prospect theory and the traditional expected utility theory to this case and compared the results with those of the method in this article. It should be pointed out that the single reference point-based method considers the situations of selecting bottom-line targets and ideal targets as reference points respectively.

本周基于单参照点中的底线目标进行代码复刻，调整的代码如下图所示：

This week, the code was reproduced based on the bottom line goal in the single reference point. The adjusted code is shown in the figure below:

依据调整后的代码计算出不同可行方案的最终感知价值如下图所示：

The final perceived value of different feasible solutions calculated based on the adjusted code is shown in the following figure:

可以发现基于底线目标单参照点的前景理论方法得到的可行方案排序为X2>X1>X3。与本文所得结果一致。

It can be found that the feasible solutions obtained by the prospect theory method based on the bottom line target single reference point are ranked as X2>X1>X3, which is consistent with the results obtained in this paper.

四、知识补充（Knowledge supplement）

“单参照点”和“双参照点”通常是指决策分析和多目标优化中的方法，尤其是在处理不确定性、风险和效用评估时。它们涉及通过设定参照点来指导决策者的选择，确保决策具有合理性，并有助于评估各种选择的优劣。

"Single reference point" and "double reference point" usually refer to methods in decision analysis and multi-objective optimization, especially when dealing with uncertainty, risk, and utility assessment. They involve setting reference points to guide the decision maker's choices, ensure that the decision is reasonable, and help evaluate the pros and cons of various options.

（一）单参照点 (Single Reference Point)

单参照点通常是在决策过程中使用一个固定的标准或目标值作为参考。这种方法的核心思想是，决策者设定一个特定的目标值（参照点），并通过与这一点的比较来评估各个选择或策略的效果。

Single reference point usually uses a fixed standard or target value as a reference in the decision-making process. The core idea of this method is that the decision maker sets a specific target value (reference point) and evaluates the effects of various options or strategies by comparing with this point.

1. 应用背景：在效用理论、风险评估和决策分析中，单参照点通常用于对比一个选项的表现与某个理想目标的差距。

1. Application background: In utility theory, risk assessment and decision analysis, a single reference point is usually used to compare the performance of an option with an ideal goal.

2. 决策过程：通过计算每个方案与参照点之间的差距来做出选择。比如，评估一个方案的收益是否大于某个既定的目标（参照点）。

2. Decision-making process: Make a choice by calculating the difference between each option and the reference point. For example, assess whether the benefit of a plan is greater than a certain established goal (reference point).

3. 优缺点：单参照点方法简单易懂，但可能过于依赖一个固定的参照值，忽视了其他可能的目标或情境。

3. Advantages and Disadvantages: The single reference point method is simple and easy to understand, but it may rely too much on a fixed reference value and ignore other possible goals or situations.

（二）双参照点 (Dual Reference Point)

双参照点方法则是在决策分析中设置两个参照点，一个表示最好的结果（理想参照点），另一个表示最差的结果（反理想参照点）。这两个参照点帮助决策者评估各个选项相对于最优和最劣情况的表现，形成一个更为全面的评估标准。

The dual reference point method sets two reference points in decision analysis, one for the best outcome (ideal reference point) and the other for the worst outcome (anti-ideal reference point). These two reference points help decision makers evaluate the performance of each option relative to the best and worst situations, forming a more comprehensive evaluation standard.

1. 应用背景：双参照点方法常用于多目标优化和决策分析，特别是当决策者需要同时考虑多个标准并在多个方面进行权衡时。

1. Application background: The dual reference point method is often used in multi-objective optimization and decision analysis, especially when decision makers need to consider multiple criteria at the same time and make trade-offs in multiple aspects.

2. 决策过程：通过比较每个方案与理想参照点和反理想参照点之间的差距，决策者可以更全面地评估一个方案的相对优劣。

2. Decision-making process: By comparing the gap between each option and the ideal reference point and the anti-ideal reference point, the decision maker can more comprehensively evaluate the relative advantages and disadvantages of an option.

3. 优缺点：双参照点方法比单参照点方法更复杂，但能够提供更全面的评估，适用于复杂决策和不确定性较高的情况。它能够避免决策过于依赖单一目标，从而提供更丰富的信息和决策支持。

3. Advantages and disadvantages: The dual reference point method is more complex than the single reference point method, but it can provide a more comprehensive assessment and is suitable for complex decisions and situations with high uncertainty. It can prevent decisions from being overly dependent on a single goal, thereby providing richer information and decision support.

（三）在效用理论中的应用（Application in utility theory）

单参照点：在效用理论中，单参照点方法通常用来定义一个基准的效用水平，所有其他选择的效用值与该基准进行比较。

Single reference point: In utility theory, the single reference point approach is often used to define a benchmark utility level against which all other alternative utility values are compared.

双参照点：在效用理论的框架下，双参照点方法可以帮助决策者比较每个选择的期望效用，考虑其在理想和最差情况下的表现，增强决策的稳健性。

Double reference points: Within the framework of utility theory, the double reference point method can help decision makers compare the expected utility of each option, consider its performance under ideal and worst-case scenarios, and enhance the robustness of decisions.

总结来说，单参照点方法适用于简单决策和明确的目标，而双参照点方法则适用于多目标优化和更复杂的决策情境。

In summary, the single reference point method is suitable for simple decisions and clear goals, while the dual reference point method is suitable for multi-objective optimization and more complex decision-making situations.

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