《海洋预报》| 海南岛历史台风浪模拟和评估

摘要：采用历史情景数值再现的方法研究了海南岛附近海域的台风浪灾害。基于中国国家气象局热带气旋中心的1959—2021年的热带气旋最佳路径数据集，通过模型风场与欧洲中尺度气象中心的再分析背景风场叠加构造热带气旋风场，结合第三代波浪模型模拟台风浪过程。将数值结果与201

海南岛历史台风浪模拟和评估

作者：杨志衡1 2 3牛小静1 2 3

单位：1. 清华大学水圈科学与水利工程全国重点实验室, 北京 100084;

2. 清华大学水利部水圈科学重点实验室, 北京 100084;

3. 清华大学水利水电工程系, 北京 100084

分类号：P731.22

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第五期（26-33）

摘要：采用历史情景数值再现的方法研究了海南岛附近海域的台风浪灾害。基于中国国家气象局热带气旋中心的1959—2021年的热带气旋最佳路径数据集，通过模型风场与欧洲中尺度气象中心的再分析背景风场叠加构造热带气旋风场，结合第三代波浪模型模拟台风浪过程。将数值结果与2016年台风“萨莉嘉”和2022年台风“暹芭”期间波浪台站的测波数据进行了对比，证明了模型模拟精度良好。本文模拟再现了682场热带气旋过程中的风浪，基于模拟结果统计绘制了海南岛周边海域不同重现期波高的空间分布，并初步对海南岛沿岸台风浪的波高、波向和波周期特点进行评估。

关键词：海南岛南海台风浪 SWAN模型数值再现

Abstract：This study conducts a series of numerical simulations to reconstruct storm waves around Hainan Island during historical typhoon scenarios happened in the South China Sea. Based on the best path dataset of typhoons from 1959 to 2021 provided by the Tropical Cyclone Data Center of the China Meteorological Administration, an empirical wind mode combined with the reanalysis wind field data obtained from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to drive the third-generation wave model SWAN, which is used to simulate the wave process during each typhoon event. The numerical results are compared with the observed data during the Typhoon "Sarika" in 2016 and Typhoon "Chaba" in 2022, proving the good accuracy of the model. Totally 682 typhoon events have been simulated. Based on the simulation results, the spatial distribution of wave characteristics around Hainan Island has been provided. Furthermore, the wave height, wave direction and wave period along the coast of Hainan Island have been preliminary evaluated.

Key words：Hainan Island; South China Sea; storm wave; SWAN; numerical reproduction