摘要：2023年，一种“中国崛起顶峰论”在世界舆论上快速发酵，并在2024年第二、三季度达到顶峰。2024年9月26日，习近平总书记主持中共中央政治局会议讨论并安排经济工作，之后中国出台了一系列经济政策与措施助力经济企稳回升。李强总理在第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次
●2025年财政计划将有效支撑中国经济与物价企稳回升
此前，一些“中国崛起顶峰论”者认为，中国的财政扩张力度不够，直接导致经济萎缩与物价下滑。然而，中国在2025年“两会”上公布了史上规模最大的财政方案——计划将赤字率提升至4%、安排5.66万亿元（7820亿美元）赤字规模，比上年增加1.6万亿元，给出了一份在总量和结构上都亮点十足的财政预算草案。财政部部长蓝佛安强调，中央“预留了充足的储备工具和政策空间”以应对潜在的不确定性。这可以理解为，中国将根据经济实际运行情况部署额外的财政政策，采取一切必要措施确保2025年中国经济在合理区间运行。
更多好消息是，在2025年，除了财政政策将对经济提供有力支撑外，中国地方政府和居民消费潜力也相较前些年得到显著提升。地方政府方面，2024年11月份批准的6万亿元债务置换计划正在快速推进，最新进度已经完成过半。居民部门方面，近三年中国居民债务负担有较大下降，2025年1月时的家庭贷存比已从2021年年底的峰值0.69下降到0.53，回落至2017年初水平。
因此，2025年中国将有很大可能实现经济与物价企稳回升。金融市场正在对这些积极变化进行计价，截至2025年3月，中国10年期国债收益率已重新回升至1.9%以上。这也与世界其他地方出现过的实证证据相符，以最近的案例为例，美国为应对新冠疫情而实施财政扩张后出现了剧烈的物价上涨。这表明，只要能实施正确的刺激政策，就没有什么价格目标实现不了。●“中国崛起顶峰论”只靠财政“刺破”不够，更需改革攻坚“打破”
在一系列政策利好加持下，中国经济增速在2024年4季度已经出现明显回升，社会信心与预期出现明显改善。但要彻底消灭“中国崛起顶峰论”论调，必须依靠及时、长期的改革攻坚，才能不断推动中国进行科技创新，打破发展壁垒。中国充分地认识到改革开放的重要意义，在党的二十届三中全会明确了“进一步全面深化改革”方向，并在2025年政府工作报告中进一步确定了今年将要推进的一系列关键改革举措。
例如，“中国崛起顶峰论”妄称中国歧视民营部门。然而，这是一个彻彻底底的误判与误读。近年来，中国在汽车、通信、机器人、人工智能等领域的重大突破——如DeepSeek等中国AI兴起的事实充分表明，在现行经济和政治体系下，中国的民营企业能够很好地成长为具有全球竞争力的科技创新型企业。
但这些还不够，中国需要加快采取更多鼓励措施支持民营部门发展。2025年2月17日，习近平主席出席民营企业座谈会并发表讲话，鼓励大家中国的“广大民营企业和民营企业家大显身手正当其时”。按2025年政府工作报告中所列计划 ，《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》将在年中落地，同时要求“为企业参与国家科技创新决策提供制度保障”，确保民营企业能与其他类型企业共同主导并深度参与中国创新决策体系。
此外，“中国崛起顶峰论”还提出中国金融体系存在局限性，认为中国金融部门仍依赖于为房地产行业和基础设施提供信贷，面对当下经济转型需求时，无法向社会提供足够信贷。然而，这同样是对中国金融部门的不了解和误读。近年来中国商业银行的信贷结构发生了重大变化，中国人民银行2024年最新中国货币政策执行报告显示，七成以上实体经济贷款为中长期贷款，金融支持实体经济发展导向明显。中国还在酝酿对银行信贷方向作出进一步拓展，2025年政府工作报告中提出“完善科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融标准体系和基础制度”，表明中国银行业将加强相关制度与方案设计，为这些新兴行业提供更多信贷。在股市领域，中国证监会主席吴清明确表示，中国将继续鼓励A股上市公司着眼长远发展，为投资者提供更好的回报，吸引更多的长期投资进入A股，并加强对股东掏空等证券违法违规行为的监管。
今年的其他重要改革措施包括但不限于：重新平衡中央财政与地方财政、教育制度改革等，这些都将为中国未来数年的经济增长提供支持。不过，要让中国经济及世界对中国的信心重回正轨，就必须确保每一项改革措施都得到有效实施，而不是成为“空谈”。党的二十届三中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》中，中国已经明确将“周密制定改革任务、时间表和优先顺序，指定主管部门负责落实各项改革举措，并明确其职责”。整个世界都在密切关注这位东方大国的下一步行动。
文章英文版原文
Since 2023, a “Peak China” theory has emerged and reached its zenith during the second and third quarter of 2024. On September 26 last year, President Xi Jinping chaired an unexpected meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo to discuss economic work.After the meeting, the government enacted a series of stimulus policies aimed at addressing the causes of the country’s economic downturn. This was confirmed by Premier Li Qiang at the opening of this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) in a speech outlining a package of measures intended to help hit a growth target of around 5 per cent.One argument from sceptics is that China’s fiscal policy has not been expansionary enough, leading to a contraction in the economy and a downward spiral in prices. However, the fiscal stimulus package unveiled at this year’s “two sessions” is unprecedented, including a 4 per cent deficit-to-GDP ratio and a government deficit of about 5.66 trillion yuan (US$782 billion), an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year.Finance Minister Lan Foan has emphasised that the central government has sufficient reserve tools and policy space to address any uncertainties. This can be understood as being able to deploy additional fiscal policy if needed and ensuring all necessary measures can be taken.The potential for consumption among China’s local governments and public has improved significantly. On the local government side, the 6 trillion yuan debt-swap programme approved in November appears to be gaining momentum, with Lan saying during an NPC press conference that implementation had reached the halfway mark.In the residential sector, China has seen a significant decline in debt burden, with households’ loan-to-deposit ratio falling back to early 2017 levels.As a result, China has a good chance to avoid deflation this year. Financial markets appear to be pricing this in, with the yield on China’s 10-year government bond back above 1.9 per cent for the first time since December. This is also in line with evidence from elsewhere – such as the United States encountering rising prices after its fiscal expansion to deal with the effects of the pandemic – suggesting there is no price target that cannot be achieved if the stimulus is in place and delivered in the right way.Despite the positive signals appearing in the wake of the government’s stimulus measures, putting the notion of “Peak China” to rest must rely on timely, long-term institutional reforms, promoting scientific and technological innovation and breaking down barriers to development. “Further deepening reform comprehensively” was the theme of the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party, and this year’s government work report further supported key reform measures.Another criticism of the “Peak China” theory asserts that China discriminates against the private sector. However, recent breakthroughs in communications and artificial intelligence, such as the rise of DeepSeek, show that China’s private sector can be globally competitive under the current economic and political system.In addition, the government is promoting further measures to encourage and support the private sector. Xi attended a gathering of China’s leading entrepreneurs on February 17 and assured them of the government’s support for the private sector.Meanwhile, the government work report called for speeding up the enactment of laws to promote the private sector and providing “institutional support for enterprises to participate in national decision-making on scientific and technological innovation and undertake major science and technology projects”.Another criticism levelled by the “Peak China” argument is that China faces limitations on its financial system, with the sector accustomed to providing credit for the property sector and infrastructure and thus will struggle to ensure adequate credit is available when the economy is in transition. However, this is a misleading interpretation of the financial sector, given that Chinese commercial banks’ credit structure has changed significantly in recent years.The latest People’s Bank of China report shows that more than 70 per cent of non-financial enterprise loans are now long-term, aiming to support the real economy. Meanwhile, discussions of technology, pensions, digital, green and other forms of finance in the government work report suggest China is prepared to further expand credit to these new economic sectors soon.As for the stock market, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing announced earlier this month that the government would continue to encourage A shares-listed companies to focus on long-term development and provide better return for investors, attracting more long-term investment in A shares and strengthening regulations on illegal market behaviours.Other important reform measures this year include rebalancing the revenues and spending of both the central and local governments and reforming the education system, all of which can provide further support for China’s economic growth for years to come. To bring the Chinese economy and global confidence in China back on track, it is crucial to ensure that every reform measure is implemented effectively and not an empty promise.In a resolution following the third plenary session last year, the party said it would “work in concert from top to bottom across all departments and regions to set the tasks, timelines, and priorities for reform in a well-conceived way, and designate competent departments for implementing each reform initiative and clearly define their responsibilities”. How these reforms are implemented is worth watching closely.挪威驻华大使来人大，重点谈涉及人类未来35年进程的一件大事
重要！重要！重要！
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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