摘要：We are more capable not because of genetic change, but because we benefit from the infrastructure of society being way smarter and
原文地址：https://ia.samaltman.com/
In the next couple of decades, we will be able to do things that would have seemed like magic to our grandparents.
在接下来的几十年里，我们将能够做到一些在我们祖父母辈人看起来像魔法的事情。
This phenomenon is not new, but it will be newly accelerated. People have become dramatically more capable over time; we can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed to be impossible.
这一现象并不新鲜，但它将会以全新的加速度进行发展。人们的能力随着时间显著增强；我们现在所能做到的事情，对先辈们来说曾经认为是不可能的。
We are more capable not because of genetic change, but because we benefit from the infrastructure of society being way smarter and more capable than any one of us; in an important sense, society itself is a form of advanced intelligence. Our grandparents – and the generations that came before them – built and achieved great things. They contributed to the scaffolding of human progress that we all benefit from. AI will give people tools to solve hard problems and help us add new struts to that scaffolding that we couldn’t have figured out on our own. The story of progress will continue, and our children will be able to do things we can’t.
我们能力的增强并不是因为基因层面的变化，而是受益于比我们任何个体都更聪明、更有能力的的社会基础设施；一个重要的认知是，社会本身就是一种高级智能体。我们的祖父母辈以及更早的几代人建造并取得了伟大的成就。他们贡献了人类进步的基石，使我们所有人受益。人工智能将赋予人们解决复杂问题的工具，并帮助我们为此基石增加新的支撑点，这些是我们无法单独完成的。这个进展将会持续下去，我们的孩子将能够做到我们无法做到的事情。
It won’t happen all at once, but we’ll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI; eventually we can each have a personal AI team, full of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. We can imagine similar ideas for better healthcare, the ability to create any kind of software someone can imagine, and much more.
这一切不会立刻发生, 但我们很快就能通过AI的辅助完成更多的事情, 最终我们每个人都可以拥有一支由不同领域虚拟专家组成的AI团队，它们通过协作可以完成几乎任何我们能想象的事情。我们的孩子将拥有专属的个性化教学虚拟导师，涵盖任何学科、任何语言，并能能按照需要调整教学节奏。我们可以将类似的想法扩展到医疗服务的改善、软件工具的创造等等方面。
With these new abilities, we can have shared prosperity to a degree that seems unimaginable today; in the future, everyone’s lives can be better than anyone’s life is now. Prosperity alone doesn’t necessarily make people happy – there are plenty of miserable rich people – but it would meaningfully improve the lives of people around the world.
凭借这些新的能力，我们可以实现今天看来难以想象的共享繁荣；未来，每个人的生活都可以比现在任何人的都要好。单靠繁荣并不能一定使人幸福—有很多不快乐的富人—但它会在很大程度上改善全世界人们的生活。
Here is one narrow way to look at human history: after thousands of years of compounding scientific discovery and technological progress, we have figured out how to melt sand, add some impurities, arrange it with astonishing precision at extraordinarily tiny scale into computer chips, run energy through it, and end up with systems capable of creating increasingly capable artificial intelligence.
这里我们从一个狭隘的视角来总结人类历史：经过数千年的科学发现和技术进步的积累，我们已经学会了如何融化沙子，添加一些杂质，再以惊人的精确度在极小的尺度上将其组装成计算机芯片，最后通电后形成能够创造越来越强大的人工智能的系统。
This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have super-intelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.
这或许将成为截至目前历史上最为重要的事件。我们有可能在几千天内实现超级智能！也许会耗时更久，但我相信这一天终将到来。
How did we get to the doorstep of the next leap in prosperity?
人类如何到达下一个繁荣飞跃的门槛？
In three words: deep learning worked.
用三个词来概括：深度 学习 可行。
In 15 words: deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it.
用十五个词来总结：深度 学习 可行，随着参数规模的增加 预测效果会变得更好，人类投入了越来越多的资源来提升它。
That’s really it; humanity discovered an algorithm that could really, truly learn any distribution of data (or really, the underlying “rules” that produce any distribution of data). To a shocking degree of precision, the more compute and data available, the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems. I find that no matter how much time I spend thinking about this, I can never really internalize how consequential it is.
事情就这样发生了，人类发现了一种能真正学习任何数据趋势的算法（或者说，能发现产生任何数据分布的底层“规则”）。在令人震惊的精确程度上，可用的算力和数据越多，它就越擅长帮助人们解决复杂的问题。我发现不管我花费多少时间思考这个问题，都无法完全体会到它有多么重要。
There are a lot of details we still have to figure out, but it’s a mistake to get distracted by any particular challenge. Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale, and that will lead to meaningful improvements to the lives of people around the world.
还有很多细节问题需要我们去解决，但不要把精力浪费在某个特定的挑战上。深度学习是可行的，当前的问题终将被解决。未来可能发生的事情我们有很多可以说的，但最主要的一点是，AI 将随着规模的扩大而变得更强，它将对世界各地人们的生活产生深远的改善！
AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf. At some point further down the road, AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next-generation systems and make scientific progress across the board.
人工智能模型不久将会充当自主的个人助手，代表我们执行特定任务，例如协调医疗服务。在未来的某个时刻，人工智能系统将变得非常先进，足够帮助我们创作更好的下一代系统，并在各个领域推动科学进步。
Technology brought us from the Stone Age to the Agricultural Age and then to the Industrial Age. From here, the path to the Intelligence Age is paved with compute, energy, and human will.
科技带领我们从石器时代走到农业时代，再到工业时代。如今，通向智能时代的道路将由算力、能源和人类意志铺就。
If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people.
如果我们希望将人工智能普惠到尽可能多的人，我们需要降低计算成本并使计算资源变得充裕（而这需要大量的能源和芯片）。如果我们不建立足够的基础设施，AI 将成为一种稀缺资源，这将引发战争，并沦为成为富人的工具。
We need to act wisely but with conviction. The dawn of the Intelligence Age is a momentous development with very complex and extremely high-stakes challenges. It will not be an entirely positive story, but the upside is so tremendous that we owe it to ourselves, and the future, to figure out how to navigate the risks in front of us.
我们需要坚定而明智的行动。智能时代的到来是（人类）重大的进步，同时也面临着非常复杂和极具风险的挑战。这并不会是一个完全正面的过程，但其潜在的好处如此巨大，以至于我们有责任为自己和未来探索出应对当前风险的方法。
I believe the future is going to be so bright that no one can do it justice by trying to write about it now; a defining characteristic of the Intelligence Age will be massive prosperity.
我相信，未来将会如此辉煌，以至于现在任何文字描述都无法充分表达其伟大；智能时代的一个显著特征将是巨大的繁荣。
Although it will happen incrementally, astounding triumphs – fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and the discovery of all of physics – will eventually become commonplace. With nearly-limitless intelligence and abundant energy – the ability to generate great ideas, and the ability to make them happen – we can do quite a lot.
尽管这一切将会逐渐实现，但诸如修复气候、建立太空殖民地和发现所有物理定律等令人惊叹的成就，最终将成为家常便饭。凭借几乎无限的智慧和丰富的能源—以及创造伟大思想并将其付诸实践的能力——我们可以的事情还有很多。
As we have seen with other technologies, there will also be downsides, and we need to start working now to maximize AI’s benefits while minimizing its harms. As one example, we expect that this technology can cause a significant change in labor markets (good and bad) in the coming years, but most jobs will change more slowly than most people think, and I have no fear that we’ll run out of things to do (even if they don’t look like “real jobs” to us today). People have an innate desire to create and to be useful to each other, and AI will allow us to amplify our own abilities like never before. As a society, we will be back in an expanding world, and we can again focus on playing positive-sum games.
正如我们在其他技术中所见，AI也会存在负面的影响，我们需要从现在就开始努力，以最大化人工智能带来的好处，同时最小化其潜在的危害。举个例子来说，我们预计这项技术将在未来几年内对劳动力市场产生重大影响（既有积极的也有消极的一面），但大多数工作的变化速度会比大多数人想象的要慢，而且我不担心我们会无事可做（即使这些工作在今天看来不像‘真正的’工作）。人类有一种与生俱来的创造欲望和对彼此有用的渴望，而AI 将使前所未有地放大我们的自身能力。对社会而言，我们将重新进入一个扩张的世界，再次专注于积极的双赢游戏。
Many of the jobs we do today would have looked like trifling wastes of time to people a few hundred years ago, but nobody is looking back at the past, wishing they were a lamplighter. If a lamplighter could see the world today, he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable. And if we could fast-forward a hundred years from today, the prosperity all around us would feel just as unimaginable.
我们今天所做的许多工作，在几百年前看来都像是浪费时间在做微不足道的事情，但没有人在回顾历史时，渴望成为一名点灯工人。如果一个点灯工能看到今天的世界，他会认为周围的繁荣是不可想象的。如果我们能快进一百年，未来AI所带来的繁荣也将显得同样不可想象！
来源：灵感蓄水池
