越览（92）——精读复刻论文的应用实例的理解与计算（11）

摘要：This issue will introduce the understanding and calculating the application example of the intensively read replica paper "Emergen

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“越览（92）——精读复刻论文

《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的

应急决策方法》应用实例的理解与计算（11）。”

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Today, the editor brings the

"Yue Lan(92)—intensive reading replica paper

'Emergency decision-making method based on

multi-granularity probability language

and dual reference points

'Understanding and calculating

the application example (11)".

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一、内容摘要（Summary of content）

本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读复刻论文《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的应急决策方法》应用实例的理解与计算（11）。

This issue will introduce the understanding and calculating the application example of the intensively read replica paper "Emergency decision-making method based on multi-granularity probability language and dual reference points" in terms of mind maps, intensively read content, and knowledge supplementation.

二、思维导图（Mind mapping）

三、精读内容（Intensive reading content）

上周已经计算出了案例中不同可行方案时各项关键风险因素的感知价值。

Last week we calculated the perceived value of each key risk factor for different possible scenarios in the case study.

下一步依据式（24）将可行方案 Xj实施时，应急决策组对各项关键风险因素的感知价值与各项关键风险因素的权重信息进行集结，确定不同可行方案的最终感知价值。

In the next step, when the feasible plan Xj is implemented according to formula (24), the emergency decision-making group aggregates the perceived value of each key risk factor and the weight information of each key risk factor to determine the final perceived value of different feasible plans.

运行结果如下图所示：

The running results are shown in the figure below:

计算不同可行方案的最终感知价值为：V1=0.341，V2=0.891，V3=-0.618。综上，各个可行方案最终感知价值的排序为V2>V1>V3。根据不同可行方案的最终感知价值计算结果，可行方案 X1 和可行方案 X2 的最终感知价值均大于0，这就表示这两个可行方案所可能带来的收益符合应急决策组的预期，能达到既定的目标，而可行方案3 X的最终感知价值则小于0，这也表示X3 所可能带来的损失超过了应急决策组的预期。根据本文所提方法的测算结果，应急决策组最终选定可行方案X2。

The final perceived values of different feasible solutions are calculated as: V1=0.341, V2=0.891, V3=-0.618. In summary, the ranking of the final perceived values of each feasible solution is V2>V1>V3. According to the calculation results of the final perceived values of different feasible solutions, the final perceived values of feasible solutions X1 and X2 are both greater than 0, which means that the benefits that these two feasible solutions may bring meet the expectations of the emergency decision-making group and can achieve the established goals, while the final perceived value of feasible solution 3 X is less than 0, which also means that the possible losses caused by X3 exceed the expectations of the emergency decision-making group. According to the calculation results of the method proposed in this paper, the emergency decision-making group finally selected feasible solution X2.

四、知识补充（Knowledge supplement）

期望效用理论是经济学和决策科学中的一种经典理论，用于分析和解释在不确定性条件下的决策行为。该理论由冯·诺伊曼和摩根斯坦在他们的《博弈论与经济行为》一书中提出。

Expected utility theory is a classic theory in economics and decision science, used to analyze and explain decision-making behavior under uncertainty. The theory was proposed by von Neumann and Morgenstern in their book "Game Theory and Economic Behavior".

核心观点（Core viewpoint）

1. 效用替代收益：期望效用理论假设，个体的决策并不是基于结果的绝对收益（例如金钱的数量），而是基于这些结果所带来的主观满意度或效用。

1. Utility as a Substitute for Gains: Expected utility theory assumes that individuals make decisions not based on the absolute gains from outcomes (e.g., the amount of money) but on the subjective satisfaction or utility that these outcomes bring.

2. 期望值计算：在面对不确定性的情况下，个体通过对每种可能结果的效用加权平均来选择最优决策。其计算公式为：

2. Expected value calculation: When faced with uncertainty, individuals choose the best decision by weighting the utility of each possible outcome. The calculation formula is:

3.理性选择：根据理论，个体会选择最大化期望效用的选项，而不是单纯追求最可能的结果或最大收益。

3. Rational choice: According to the theory, individuals will choose the option that maximizes expected utility rather than simply pursuing the most likely outcome or maximum benefit.

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