摘要：梅根·布伦南是盖洛普公司的高级编辑。布伦南凭借其在分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识，为盖洛普公司的客户调查项目提供指导。她还为盖洛普网站撰写了涵盖广泛主题（如经济、政治和商业事务）的数据驱动型文章。
作者介绍：
梅根·布伦南是盖洛普公司的高级编辑。布伦南凭借其在分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识，为盖洛普公司的客户调查项目提供指导。她还为盖洛普网站撰写了涵盖广泛主题（如经济、政治和商业事务）的数据驱动型文章。
在加入盖洛普公司之前，布伦南在《纽约时报》工作了超过 17 年，期间她先是担任记者，最近则担任新闻调查版的副主编。在《纽约时报》任职期间，她以“梅根·泰”和“梅根·泰-布伦南”这两个笔名报道过民意调查和选举相关的内容。
Megan Brenan is a Senior Editor at Gallup. Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup client survey projects. She also writes data-driven articles on a broad range of topics for Gallup.com, including economic, political and business matters.
Before joining Gallup, Brenan worked more than 17 years at The New York Times as a writer and most recently as the deputy editor of the News Surveys desk. She covered polling and elections throughout her tenure at The Times under the bylines "Megan Thee" and Megan Thee-Brenan."
Brenan received her bachelor's degree in political science from College of the Holy Cross, Worcester, Mass. She has been a member of AAPOR for nearly two decades and served as secretary and treasurer of its New York Chapter.
正文一：
布伦南毕业于马萨诸塞州伍斯特市的圣十字学院，获政治学学士学位。她已加入美国公共行政研究协会近二十年，并曾担任该协会纽约分会的秘书和财务主管。
华盛顿特区——2024 年，美国人的意识形态认同保持稳定，平均有 37% 的人称自己的政治观点为“非常保守”或“保守”，34% 的人称自己为“温和派”，25% 的人称自己为“非常自由派”或“自由派”。然而，这种稳定掩盖了共和党人自认为保守以及民主党人自认为自由的比例均创下的新高。
2024 年美国人的意识形态认同保持稳定
自盖洛普于 1992 年开始用这种衡量方式追踪美国人的意识形态以来，保守派、温和派和自由派这三个主要意识形态群体中，没有一个群体曾占据过多数地位。相反，保守派和温和派一直旗鼓相当，是两个主要群体，而自由派所占比例则始终较小。
不过，这一趋势记录了每个群体相对实力的变化。
最值得注意的是，自认为是中间派的美国人比例从 1992 年的平均 43% 下降到 2024 年的 34%，而保守派的比例则相对稳定，在 38% 这个三十年来的平均值上下波动。
因此，中间派从 20 世纪 90 年代最大的意识形态群体，到 21 世纪初与保守派持平，再到奥巴马 2009 年至 2016 年任期内略低于保守派。此后，中间派的比例一直与保守派持平或略低。
与此同时，自认为是自由派的比例从 1992 年的 17% 上升到 2016 年的 25%，此后一直保持在这一水平附近。
盖洛普要求美国人按照从“非常保守”到“非常自由”的五级量表来描述自己的政治观点，这一趋势是基于自 1992 年以来每年进行的全国电话调查的年度平均值得出的。2024 年的数据包括对超过 14000 名美国成年人的访谈。
2024 年，与近年来的情况一样，美国意识形态光谱两端的人数大致相当，即自认为非常保守或非常自由的人数各占美国成年人总数的约十分之一。
共和党和民主党的意识形态已达到 30 年来最极端的程度
共和党人一直以来都更倾向于自认为是保守派，但在 2024 年，有 77%的人这样自我描述，这一比例较 2023 年上升了两个百分点，创下了新的最高纪录。这其中还包括 24%的共和党人表示自己非常保守，这一比例也比 2023 年高出一个百分点。另有 18% 的共和党人表示自己属于政治中间派，这是该数据自 1998 年至 2002 年期间曾高达 30% 以下以来首次降至 20% 以下。仅有 4% 的共和党人表示自己属于政治左派，这一比例与此前的调查结果一致。
在 2024 年，有 55%的民主党人自认为属于自由派，这是该群体自该项调查开展以来的最高比例，高出此前数据 1 个百分点，其中 19%的人表示自己非常自由派，这也是一个新的最高纪录。在过去 30 年里，民主党人的自由派认同度已经翻了一倍多。
从 1994 年到 2006 年，超过十分之四的民主党人自称是温和派，而自由派的认同比例则在 25%到 35%之间波动。在 2007 年至 2011 年期间，民主党人同样有可能认同为自由派或温和派。自 2012 年以来，自由派民主党人的比例大幅超过了温和派民主党人，包括在过去三年中，当时有明显多数人自认为是自由派。在 2024 年，34%的民主党人表示自己是温和派，而 9%的人认为自己是保守派。
独立人士群体中仍有相当一部分人自认为属于温和派。
与独立选民一贯的表态一致，2024 年参与调查的大多数选民自称属于中间派；30%的人表示自己属于保守派，20%的人属于自由派。自 1994 年以来，一直有相当比例的独立选民自认为是中间派，但从 2009 年到 2015 年，超过 30%的选民（这一比例在以往是罕见的）表示自己属于保守派。
要点/结论
在过去 32 年里，温和派和自由派的立场有了较大的转变，但过去十年间，整体的意识形态格局并未发生太大变化。然而，在过去几年里，共和党和民主党内部的政治意识形态发生了变化。2024 年，认为自己为保守派的共和党人和认为自己为自由派的民主党人的比例均达到了历史新高。
随着党派内部的意识形态分歧日益加剧，代表这些党派当选进入公职的候选人也出现了同样的情况。这使得联邦和州政府中两党在关键问题上的跨党派协商空间大幅缩小。此外，这也导致了同一党派中极端意识形态者与中间派官员之间的内部分歧，有时使得执政党难以通过其支持的立法或处理基本的政府事务。
正文二：
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ ideological identification was steady in 2024, with an average of 37% describing their political views as “very conservative” or “conservative,” 34% as “moderate,” and 25% as “very liberal” or “liberal.” However, this stability masks new highs in the percentages of Republicans identifying as conservative and Democrats as liberal.
Americans’ Ideological Identification Was Steady in 2024
None of the three main ideological groupings of Americans -- conservatives, moderates and liberals -- has had majority-level status since Gallup began tracking ideology with this measure in 1992. Rather, conservatives and moderates have been closely matched as the two leading groups, while liberals have consistently accounted for a smaller share.
Still, the trend documents changes in the relative strength of each group.
Most notably, the percentage of Americans identifying as moderate has declined from an average of 43% in 1992 to 34% in 2024, while conservatism has been fairly steady, fluctuating around the three-decade mean of 38%.
As a result, moderates fell from being the largest ideological group in the 1990s to tying with conservatives in the early 2000s and lagging conservatives slightly during Barack Obama’s presidency from 2009 to 2016. Since then, the moderate share has tied or slightly trailed the conservative percentage.
Meanwhile, the percentage identifying as liberal increased from 17% in 1992 to 25% in 2016 and has since remained near that level.
Gallup asks Americans to describe their political views on a five-point “very conservative” to “very liberal” scale, and the trend is based on annual averages of national telephone surveys conducted each year since 1992. The 2024 data include interviews with more than 14,000 U.S. adults.
In 2024, as in recent years, Americans at the extremes of the ideological spectrum -- those identifying as very conservative or very liberal -- were about equal in number, with each accounting for roughly one in 10 U.S. adults.
Republicans’ and Democrats’ Ideology Is Most Extreme in 30 Years
Republicans have always been most likely to identify as conservative, but in 2024, 77% described themselves as such, marking a new high by two percentage points and a four-point increase from 2023. This includes 24% of Republicans who said they were very conservative, which is also a new high by one point.
Another 18% of Republicans said they were political moderates, which is the first time the reading -- which was as high as the low 30s from 1998 to 2002 -- has fallen below 20%. Just 4% of Republicans said they were politically liberal, consistent with prior readings.
The 55% of Democrats identifying as liberal in 2024 is the highest reading for the group by one point, including 19% who said they were very liberal, which is also a new high. Democrats’ liberal identification has more than doubled over the past 30 years.
From 1994 to 2006, pluralities of more than four in 10 Democrats described themselves as moderate, with liberal identification ranging from 25% to 35%. Between 2007 and 2011, Democrats were equally likely to identify as liberal or moderate. Since 2012, liberal Democrats have far outpaced moderate Democrats, including in the past three years, when clear majorities have identified as liberal. In 2024, 34% of Democrats said they were moderate and 9% conservative.
Plurality of Independents Continue to Identify as Moderate
As has been typical for independents, the largest segment described themselves as moderate in 2024; 30% said they were conservative and 20% liberal. While pluralities of independents dating back to 1994 have consistently identified as moderate, from 2009 to 2015, an atypically large share of more than 30% said they were conservative.
Bottom Line
Throughout the past 32 years, there have been broad shifts in moderate and liberal identification, but the last decade has seen little change in the overall ideological landscape. Yet, over the past few years, there have been shifts in political ideology within the Republican and Democratic Parties. In 2024, the shares of Republicans identifying as conservative and Democrats identifying as liberal both reached record highs.
As partisans have become increasingly polarized ideologically, so too have the candidates elected to public office representing those parties. That leaves less room for across-the-aisle negotiation on key issues between the two parties in federal and state government. It also has led to intra-party disagreement between ideologically extreme and centrist officeholders of the same party, which has sometimes made it challenging for the controlling parties of institutions to pass legislation their parties favor or handle basic government functions.
来源：非 常道
